UPDATES


Let’s catch up on some news - and review some of this year’s predictions:

1) Matt Long, the injured New York City firefighter: as of Friday the word on Matt is that he had just had a series of orthopedic surgeries and was still in critical condition. But - thanks to God, to doctors and nurses and thanks to your prayers - Matthew Long is still with us! And every day that he survives and recovers - even if it is just one inch at a time - is a gift from above. And there is hope that he will make it.

So let’s all keep praying for Matt - and for others that we know of specifically by name. Don’t be afraid to ask God to help someone who is in difficulty. God does hear us - and He answers prayers.

So let’s all keep asking God to bring Matt Long through this.


2) Delay’s Demise: as predicted in last weeks Predictions 2006 column, the Abramoff Scandal is already having a huge effect on DC. Delay’s decision not to seek a return to his former post of Majority Leader is yet another step into the inevitable: Delay’s ultimate exit from the political scene.

Although he declared yesterday that he will run for re-election in November, that is a long, long way off. The way the dominoes are falling, Delay will be in such disrepute by then that the wise thing will to just exit the scene and move on. Besides, why does he want to become a ‘back bencher’ after having been Majority Leader?

No, I stick with my prediction: Delay doesn’t even run in November, despite what he is saying now.

3) Iraq is spiraling even more out of control by the minute. With 17 American soldiers killed on Sunday - and 30 in the first week of the New Year - how long will the American public stand for our soldiers stuck in the middle of an Iraqi civil war?

Indeed, that is what Iraq has become: Sunnis and Shi’a exacting revenge for past injustices and repression. As long as Saddam was in charge, everyone lived in absolute fear of him and his murderous thugs. But with Saddam out of power, the US has replaced him as Iraq’s Strong Man. This is a role we do not and should not want.

US soldiers are not meant to referee between two ethnic groups with hundreds of years of mutual enmity.

As things continue to deteriorate - the so-called ‘new’ Iraqi Government now may not even be constituted until April - the vacuum will be filled by Iran. And that is the worst news of all.

And it was all so predictable.


4) Abramoff Scandal: yesterday Pat Buchanan used the phrase “dynamiting the outhouse,” to describe this spreading cancer on Washington. He predicted a huge Congressional turnover.

Today, on Imus’ radio program, Newsweek’s Evan Thomas predicted just the opposite: only one or two Congressmen will be prosecuted; instead, the crime was by the lobbyists ripping off the Indian tribes.

If that was true, then why would the Justice Department cut a deal with the main lobbyist? If Members of Congress didn’t break laws, then why would Justice want the cooperation of the lobbyist who handed out the cash?

This scandal is still in its infancy; it has yet to take shape. But the fear on Capitol Hill is real. And Delay’s decision to seek his old post is a tip-off that more is to come.

5) Plame -Rove: the Grand Jury took new testimony last Friday at 9:30 AM. Special Counsel Patrick Fitzgerald is steadily moving ahead - with the intent of indicting Karl Rove for perjury and obstruction of justice. That case is very much alive. Something will happen within weeks.

PREDICTIONS 2006


OK, here we go on another set of new predictions for the New Year. In no particular order:

1) The War in Iraq: 2006 will be the year of retribution, revenge and payback for the Shi’a majority who have clearly won the recent elections. They will take over the all-important Interior Ministry - and from there begin to exact revenge on the Sunnis for decades of murder, torture, and ‘ethnic cleansing.’ Iran will assist them in this effort as Tehran extends its reach right into the key Baghdad ministries. This era of payback has already begun with more and more torture chambers being found up and running in government basements in Baghdad. And Shi’a militias are beginning to roam the countryside executing Sunnis.

Indeed, the Big Winner in our War in Iraq will be Iran; they will win through our efforts what they could not win in eight years of head-to-head war with Saddam in the 1980's.

This will be G.W. Bush’s legacy as President: he allowed the most dangerous Mid-East nation - Iran - to prosper and expand into a regional and perhaps even a nuclear power while we were spending everything on Iraq.

In the end, it will be seen as a total fiasco - almost on the same level as Vietnam.

2) Enron: Ken Lay and my Harvard Business School classmate (and arch-enemy there) Jeff Skilling will easily be convicted and sentenced to the longest white collar sentences in American history.

3) The Indianapolis Colts will win the Super Bowl - a good triumph for their classy coach, Tony Dungy, whose 18-year old son just committed suicide two weeks ago.

4) Special Counsel Patrick Fitzgerald will indict Karl Rove for lying to the Grand Jury and obstructing justice - and that story will rock the Bush White House and the GOP establishment.

5) 2006 mid-term elections: The Democrats’ attempts to tar the GOP with this “Culture of Corruption” label will not work enough to re-gain control of either the House or Senate. They will pick up a few seats - but will remain in the minority.

6) The turnout will be low - reflecting a general disgust for the overall political behavior in Washington.

7) Tom Delay will be indicted in the Jack Abramoff mess and will not even run for re-election in November. He is finished. Fellow GOP House Members want no part of the stench of cronyism and corruption surrounding him.

8) Scandals:

A) The NSA domestic ‘spying’ scandal will not amount to a hill of beans because the public will see that we have to track down sleeper cells here at home. Maybe the White House should have tried a little harder to get a judge to approve of it, but politically it only helps Bush.

B) The Rove indictment will dominate the news and really hurt the White House. Fitzgerald will try to climb the ladder and go after Cheney and maybe even President Bush by trying to ‘flip’ Scooter Libby and Karl Rove.

C) Another scandal: faithful readers will recall previous references to a Big Scandal that has yet to surface. Not wanting to ‘cry wolf,’ I have refrained from writing about this scandal because I cannot make it happen. Yes, I know all about it. It is a huge scandal - bigger than anything including Watergate or any other political scandal in American history. It envelopes both parties - and shows how totally corrupt Washington DC has become. But if and when it breaks into open view is beyond my - or anyone’s - control. It is up to the Good Lord to blow it open and help clean out our government.

Hopefully 2006 will become the Year of the Truth - when the American people finally learn the details of how often they are lied to by leaders of both parties.

Here in the East, along the ocean, there is a grass called phragmites which can not be killed. It is so tough, so persistent, so durable that it will grow right through cement and concrete.

Truth in America is like phragmites: it may take a long time to surface - too long for many of us - but here in the United States of America it does come out.

This Big Scandal is indicative of so much that is wrong with our government and our corrupt so-called mainstream media, too.

Only God can break the hold these people have on us and allow the truth to finally come out.

Let us all hope and pray that 2006 will indeed become known as the Year of Truth in our great country.

Happy New Year to you all!

PRAYER FOR A FRIEND


Prayer works.

Prayer solves problems.

And prayer can heal injuries and cure sickness.

A study a few years ago in a cardiac Intensive Care Unit in a San Fransisco hospital, an experiment was conducted to measure the power of prayer:

The patients were divided into two groups. The names of the first group were passed out the following Sunday at area churches and parishioners were asked to pray for these very ill patients; the other group’s names were not passed out.

Guess what?

Those who were prayed for had a better recovery rate than the others!.

Indeed, the prayers of strangers for a stranger are heard by God - and often answered!

A week ago here in New York City during the transit strike, a brave 39-year old New York City firefighter, Matthew Long, was bicycling to work when a truck made an illegal tun and ran him over, breaking his pelvis, separating his shoulder and causing massive internal bleeding.

He was rushed to New York Hospital where he remains to this day in critical condition. He has had frequent blood transfusions. He remains in critical condition - with his family taking turns waiting and praying in the ICU for his recovery.

Matthew is a devoted athlete, having trained for triathalons; doctors think his physical conditioning may help him survive this disaster. Smartly, he was wearing a helmet that fateful morning and thus suffered no neurological damage.

Matt’s father is Mike Long, the Chairman of the New York State Conservative Party. Mike Long is a wonderful man, a devoted husband and father - and a true blue conservative who is a principled political leader.

Why don’t we all join together and pray as one for Matthew Long’s total and complete recovery?

Let us all pray - beginning today - and keep at it until this wonderful young man walks out of the hospital and resumes his career as a heroic firefighter.

And you can also call Chairman Long at New York State Conservative Headquarters and leave him a message of hope - and let him know we are all praying for his son’s recovery. Tell his secretary you read this column and want to join in a nation-wide prayer for Matthew. The phone number is 718-921-2158.

If we all ask God for His help then He will hear us. And hopefully Matt Long will soon be back saving others from fires and danger in New York City.

Thank you!

And Happy New Year to you all!

Next week will appear the Predictions 2006 column.

MONDELLO MUST GO



No sooner had the polls closed on Election Day three weeks ago - with yet another Tom Suozzi Democratic tsunami sweeping across Nassau County - that a familiar series of grumbles and complaints began anew in GOP circles: “He has to get out...”; “He’s gotta go...”; “Who is gonna have the guts to take him on?”; “How can we turn this mess around with him still in power?”

The ‘he” and ‘him’ is Nassau County Republican Party Chairman Joseph Mondello, who has held that post for 23 years. Mr. Mondello has presided over a recent series of political defeats that have reduced what was once the nation’s most powerful county Republican machine to a pedestrian, run-of-the mill local organization that has trouble even re-electing its own incumbents.

With internal morale at an all-time low and facing the prospect of a crucial 2006 state-wide election for governor in which Nassau could be a pivotal factor, long-time Nassau County Republican officials and leaders are faced with a predictable conundrum: they know they need new leadership and an entirely new image. But they also know that anyone with the courage to stick his head above ground and take Chairman Mondello on is likely to face the full force of a nasty retribution - unless, of course - the regicide is successful. As Ralph Waldo Emerson said, “when you strike at a king, you must kill him.”

Everyone agrees: the Nassau GOP cannot and will not recover and return to dominance unless and until the chairman is removed. He then must be replaced with newer, younger political leaders who are a clear break from the past image of Nassau GOP mismanagement and cronyism.



Twenty five years ago the Nassau County Republican Party was at its zenith: delivering a huge victory for Ronald Reagan, sending one of its own, Alphonse D’Amato, to the United States Senate and four Representatives to the US House.

Locally, the GOP controlled all three towns - North Hempstead, Oyster Bay and Hempstead - as well as all of the county-wide offices, with the exception of Democrat Dennis Dillon, the District Attorney.

The Nassau County GOP was so powerful under the leadership of long-time Chairman Joseph Margiotta that no less a political observer than former President Richard Nixon remarked, “Joe Margiotta is the best local political leader in the nation.” Margiotta lived and died politics; he involved himself in every detail of every campaign, from the selection of the candidates and the themes of the campaign all the way down to the colors on bumper stickers and buttons. Margiotta also brought national campaign techniques to local politics for the first time anywhere in the country. The Nassau GOP was the first county machine to hire a full-time pollster and campaign consultant and to run television ads.

After Margiotta’s controversial conviction for insurance fraud and subsequent resignation, Mondello assumed power in 1982 and adopted a caretaker style, content to ride the well-oiled machine as if it could run itself. Not enthralled with the nuts and bolts of political campaigns, Mondello often seemed distracted by his law practice and a self-appointed post at Nassau County Off Track Betting.

Still, the GOP kept control of most of the county, with only North Hempstead slipping into Democrat hands. However, other factors were developing that would ultimately bring the fall of the Nassau GOP:

1) After then-President George H.W. Bush broke his “Read My Lips - No New Taxes” pledge, it became political suicide for any GOP candidate or office-holder to raise taxes. Nassau County Executive Thomas Gulotta, harboring state-wide ambitions, knew he was sitting on a looming economic disaster in Nassau County in the 1990's as tax receipts fell, debt piled up and yet he refused to even discuss corresponding tax increases or service cuts. Chairman Mondello could have - and should have - stepped in behind the scenes for the good of the party and forced economic discipline on the County Executive. He did not. And the subsequent economic morass is his legacy.

2) Nassau County has seen a shift in its population demographics as more people move into the county from New York City. These new voters are disproportionately Democrats or Independents. Yet, despite this influx, Nassau Republicans still hold the registration advantage. The problem is so many Republican have twice now defected from their natural ‘home’ and voted for Suozzi’s ticket. The hangover from the county’s economic collapse has not subsided.

The Nassau County Republican Party should still win elections; all they have to do is to get their voters to vote Republican. But that has not happened for two straight county-wide elections. Clearly the lingering ‘infection’ from this bad GOP image has now spread to new, young and attractive candidates like Donald Clavin, the recently-defeated candidate for County Controller, who had nothing to do with the Gulotta years and ran a good and innovative campaign but was punished merely for being on the GOP ticket.

No party with such a negative image can flourish if good candidates are afraid to run for fear of losing due to events out of their control.

And no party can survive if a distracted leader repeatedly commits acts of political malpractice:

• Allowing the Conservative Party in 2001 to pick financier Bruce Bent, a political neophyte, as their County Executive candidate before the Nassau GOP had made its selection. Allowing the tail to wag the dog deeply undermined Republican morale.

• Simply ‘not asking’ the Independent Party for cross-endorsement for several local campaigns in 2002; the added line would have made the difference - and the Independent Party was more than happy to oblige. Mr. Mondello simply did not bother to ask.

• Television commercials this year that were described - by Republicans - as “awful,” “embarrassing,” and “un-watch able.”

• Such bungled fund-raising this year that an unprecedented last minute appeal was mailed to many GOP stalwarts in mid-October asking for a whopping $5,000 contribution - for a campaign that was already hopeless - and that was mismanaged from the very beginning.

(Joe Mondello has always been extremely courteous and friendly to me. This is not a sour grapes personal complaint; I have never asked him or the Nassau GOP for anything - and I want nothing from them. This is bigger than Chairman Mondello’s feelings; this is about the future of the Nassau Republican Party.)


It is time for a new face for the Nassau County Republican Party - and a plan to create a new image for the party.

The Plan:

• Stop attacking Tom Suozzi. He has just won re-election with an overwhelming mandate from the voters. Leave him alone, let him run for governor and over time perhaps his arrogance and ego will become apparent to the voters. We Republicans need to focus instead on fixing our own house.

• Under a new GOP chairman, we need to do what we used to do best: be a grass-roots political organization that earns the loyalty and devotion of our voters. Today, with the Internet, this is the new wave of modern political organization. We need to re-create the block-by-block committee structure that ensures that the party and the voter remain in constant touch with each other.

• Our new Chairman must become the face of the Nassau County Republican Party. Thus he or she must be new, young, attractive, able to speak well on television and, most of all, not tied to the past mess that continues to drag us down.

• The party must become hip to new issues - from urban encroachment, the rise in gang violence and excessive property taxes - to tolerance for both sides of the abortion issue.

• The party has to renounce political cronyism and endorse government hiring by merit. Having “connections” has to be replaced by having the skill required to do the job.

• Most of all, the Nassau County GOP has to re-assert its belief in fiscal integrity and balanced budgets. This used to be the GOP’s trump card; we have now forsaken that advantage and must dedicate ourselves to trying to earn it back.



None of this can or will happen until Joe Mondello leaves GOP headquarters in Westbury.









John LeBoutillier was a Republican Member of the US Congress (1981-1983) from the 6th District. He is a lifelong resident of Old Westbury and is a political columnist for Newsmax.com.

WHAT DOES CONGRESS KNOW?


In the middle of the ongoing debate over whether or not the Bush Administration lied to the nation in order to get public and Congressional approval to invade Iraq is the question of the intelligence shown to the Congress.

Defenders of the Administration cavalierly claim, “Oh, the Congress saw the same intelligence that the President saw.”

Nothing - absolutely nothing - could be farther from the truth.

‘Intelligence’ - that information produced by CIA, NSA, NRO, DIA and the service intelligence agencies - is all Executive Branch product. In other words, the Executive Branch owns it, edits it, restricts it, decides who sees what and when.

Congress has limited power - and thus a limited ability - to see what they want. Basically they are at the mercy of the Executive Branch.

I often tell an amusing story: in 1981, soon after being sworn in as a US Representative and being selected for the Foreign Affairs Committee, I attended a ‘closed’ committee meeting to review the Iranian Hostage Crisis - which had just ended.

The meeting room was cleared of all staff. CIA personnel came in and gave each Member a sealed file folder. I was so excited to think that I was now - finally - going to read the real inside story of what happened behind the scenes for the last 444 days as our hostages were held in Tehran.

A CIA man signaled our committee chairman who then said, “You may now break the seals and open your files.” My heart rate increased.

I tore the seal and opened the file folder.

Inside were pages of reproduced copies of selected articles from the WASHINGTON POST and NEW YORK TIMES. Period!

That was the secret, classified ‘intelligence’ CIA was sharing with the US House of Representatives!

Over the subsequent years - especially through my devotion to the issue of American POWs abandoned by the US Government at the end of the Vietnam War and still held against their will in Vietnam and Laos - I have learned much about how the Executive Branch intelligence operation works:

1) CIA ‘places’ their staffers all over the government. Thus, Congressional staffs are infiltrated by CIA people who are there to keep an eye on things and to ‘steer’ investigations toward an outcome the CIA is happy with;

2) CIA places staffers over in the Pentagon, inside the State Department - even the White House - all to spy on those departments;

3) The Intelligence Community is in the business of “keeping secrets.” Thus, how do we know what they are not telling. It is very likely that along with not sharing much with the Congress, they don’t even tell everything they know to the President - or even to the CIA Director or the newly-created National Intelligence Czar.

4) Back to the Iraqi situation: back in the fall of 2002, Senators and Representatives were falling all over themselves to blast Saddam and Iraq for having WMDs. They claimed to have seen the intelligence of such weaponry. Now that the war has soured, these same Senators i.e. John Kerry, Hillary and scores of others, claim that they were “lied to.”

Were they?

Yes - and no.

They were ‘manipulated’ by the Executive Branch into voting for the authorization to use force.

This manipulation was done by the selective use of some intelligence that backed up the Administrations claims - but the Congress was not shown the contrary evidence that mitigated the pro-war intelligence, such as the true story behind Curveball’s assertions.

However, these Senators were so eager to be seen as hawks that they wanted to blast Saddam - regardless of the intelligence. How can you trust these elected officials anyway? If they were lied to, they allowed it to happen! They didn’t question the intelligence, they didn’t demand certain things, they didn’t threaten their ultimate weapon -withholding of budget funding - if they were misled.

No, they happily were complicit in this Kabuki Theater whereby a phony case of Saddam’s WMDs was made in order to get the American people riled up in the wake of 9/11.

Not so easily manipulated were our long-time allies such as Canada who, when shown the intelligence, refused to join in the Iraq campaign because they saw nothing that worried them. (Keep in mind that Canada has fought with us in every war of the last century - until Iraq.)

This is an ongoing scandal of epic proportions: that the USA would launch a pre-emptive invasion based on faulty - or false - intelligence is an incredible crime.

We, as a nation, are only just now coming to grips with the enormity of this manipulation.

Guess what?

Other similar manipulations of intelligence have occurred. Look for that information to come out soon.