1.) President Hosni Mubarak is a goner. The only question is: does he leave on a private jet to enjoy the American aid money he undoubtedly squirreled away overseas for his private use—or does he try to hang on and thus leave in a body bag?

2.) Who and what comes next? Do the radicals—i.e. the Muslim Brotherhood—use this opportunity to seize power in the next national elections? (And, if they do gain power, do they then cancel/rig future elections so as to keep power?)

3.) Will Jimmy Carter and other like-minded types come into Egypt to certify that the next national elections are “honest”?

4.) Does the post-Mubarak Egyptian government honor the 30-year old Camp David Accords and thus continue to collect billions in aid from DC?

5.) Does this anti-government fervor spread to Jordan? To Saudi Arabia? To Syria? To Yemen? And what of the ongoing revolt in Tunisia?

6.) What does this portend for Israel? Are they militarily prepared to once again be surrounded by hostile Arab neighbors—with the militant Tehran regime fueling the fires of anti-Israel sentiment?

7.) In DC, does the Obama Administration have a handle of the Arab and Muslim world possibly crumbling in front of our eyes? Does Obama have a clear-cut American strategy? Does anyone believe that Obama and Hillary really know what they are doing in foreign policy?

8.) Can this anti-establishment fervor in the Arab world possibly topple the nuclear-armed government of Pakistan? Or is this a country-by-country phenomenon?

9.) What does this ongoing ferment do to the terrorist element inside Islam? Does it embolden them? Does it unleash more acts of terror?

10.) Or is this primarily a middle class revolt over horrid economic conditions and poverty for so many Arab youth?

11.) What can new Egyptian leaders do to alleviate the rotten economic conditions in the world’s biggest Arab nation? Yes, they can eliminate official corruption which is tolerated when the economy works reasonably well but is blamed when the economy falters. But what to do to get millions of Egyptians back to work? (What a task facing the next government!)

12.) A year from now what will the Arab world look like? More—or less—peaceful? Are we about to see a more secular, economics-driven Arab ruling mentality? Or are we going to see them retreat from modernity into Islamic fundamentalism, which doesn’t pay the bills but surely causes a lot of trouble?

Here is Julie Kanfer's take on this AM's appearance on Imus in the Morning:

John LeBoutillier is No Longer a Congressman, Which is Probably Why We Like Him So Much

Former United States Congressman John LeBoutillier assured Imus that New York Republicans were not kidding yesterday when they nominated Rick Lazio to run for Governor against the Democrat, and current Attorney General, Andrew Cuomo.

“All Republicans know, unfortunately, that he is not going to win,” said LeBoutillier, himself a Republican. “The Tea Party fervor that’s sweeping the country hasn’t caught hold, I don’t think, here in New York.”

Engaging in some Imus-approved name-calling, LeBoutillier called Lazio, who ran for U.S. Senate in 2000 against Hillary Clinton, “a has-been,” and assured his defeat by the “arrogant,” “cocky” Cuomo.

In the I-Man’s view, the only way to describe Cuomo was to say that he “doesn’t seem like his dad,” former New York Governor Mario Cuomo, who Imus liked a lot. “I think I still like him,” Imus said, and hoped the elder Cuomo was still alive. (He is.)

When prosecutors like Cuomo run for office, LeBoutillier gets nervous. “You wonder if they aren’t getting headlines to help their campaigns, and in the process mowing over innocent people,” he said, pointing out that Rudy Giuliani often engaged in that sort of behavior when he was a U.S. Attorney. “He indicted a lot of people, got headlines, had big arrests, dragged them out of their houses, and then the charges were dropped.”

He was critical of Obama’s “aloof” and “distant” reaction to the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, but took a tougher stance on overall energy policy in this country. “We need oil,” he said. “Either we buy it from the Saudis, the Nigerians, the Venezuelans, or the Russians, all of which are not friends of the United States, and we put our money in their products. Or, we produce more oil here at home.”

But producing more oil at home is difficult, because the environmental lobby forbids drilling for oil off the shores of New Jersey, Florida, California, or Alaska. “Instead, companies are forced to do this most risky and difficult deep-sea drilling,” said LeBoutillier, adding, “And now we’re seeing the downside of these risks.”

Obama, he thinks, should bring the entire fleet of the U.S. Navy down to the Gulf of Mexico, and live on a naval ship while commanding the clean up operation, “It’s the United States versus the oil slick, to prevent it from reaching the shore of five states down there,” said LeBoutillier.

When Imus commented that Israel’s raid of ships carrying humanitarian aid to Hamas-controlled Gaza seemed “poorly-planned,” LeBoutillier highlighted the quiet but definite softening of the Israeli military over the last 20 years.

“We saw it three years ago, when rocket-launching started from Southern Lebanon by Hezbollah, and the Israeli military’s response was very poor,” he said. On top of that, a recent investigation found that weapons caches around the country were old and rotting, leading LeBoutillier to conclude that while Israel has prospered economically in the last two decades, they’ve diminished militarily.

Now, a little LeBoutillier trivia: What world leader was a high school classmate of Reggie Jackson?

Hint: He and the I-Man are “very close.”

-Julie Kanfer

Iran has been accelerating their secret program to build operational nuclear weapons for one reason—and one reason alone: once a country has nukes, no one messes with that country ever again!

No one pre-emptively attacks and invades you—as the USA did to Iraq in 2003.

Iran saw what the Bush-led invasion did to their next-door-neighbor, Iraq—the dreaded term for dictators—regime change—and they wanted no part of the same possibility aimed their way. Thus they immediately went pedal-to-the-metal—in secret, or so they thought—to build nuclear weapons.

Possessing nuclear bombs deters aggression against you—and it allows you to intimidate your neighbors, i.e. Arab states with which Iran has never had particularly good relations since the 1979 Iranian Revolution brought the radical mullahs to power in Tehran. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has had frosty relations with the arrogant—and rich—leaders of Iran. And the Saudi Government recently told Israel in secret that they would allow Israel to fly over Saudi air space on their way to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Israel, while never officially acknowledging that they have several dozen nuclear weapons, is the only nuclear power in the Middle East. (Am not including Pakistan in the Middlea East; they are considered South West Asian.) That is yet another reason they have survived. Those weapons have indeed deterred the Arab nations from trying—yet again—some sort of coordinated massive invasion of Israel. The message has been clearly sent: you mess with us at your own peril.

Now Iran wants to be a nuclear power—and they brag and boast and bluster about “wiping Israel off the map” and seeing a “giant dark cloud” over Israel. What do they think Israel and the United States of America are going to do in the face of that rhetoric and the intelligence that shows them building thousands of underground centrifuges to extract fissionable material to make nuclear weapons?

Of course Iran has multiple problems. Their June 12 election fraud unleashed a long-simmering discontent by the Iranian people against a corrupt and brutal anti-modern regime. There is massive instability even a the highest level of that regime. “Regime change” was voted for by the Iranian people—and corruption and a rigged vote counting process kept it from happening. Do not be surprised in the coming months if that regime indeed falls. Their economy is wobbly; it is reported that even at the upper levels of leadership there is talk of replacing both the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, a mere political thug by the way who revels in the use of terror to keep the people in line, and his hand-picked President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, an awful “face of the Iranian people,” who was one of the so-called “students” who captured and brutalized the American hostages back in 1979-1980.

This Thursday—October 1—will be the first official talks between the US and Tehran since that seizure of the US Embassy back on November 4, 1979. The time has come to settle this issue—and in the process re-arrange the Iranian Government.

The word has seen the brutality of this corrupt regime. And the world—including the USA, Britain, France, Russia and even China—along with Israel—is not going to let this regime join the Nuclear Club.

Iran may crumble.

The government that was carried in by the mob thirty years ago may get carried out by that mob’s children.

This electrifying story can go in any direction—and already the past five days have seen things which indicate the closed, Mullah-run society is teetering on implosion:

1) Their Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has reversed himself in public—twice—on recounting the votes;

2) He is floundering over what to do as the streets erupt in violence and protest;

3) The government clampdown on foreign journalists, text messaging, cell calls, Facebook, MySpace, YouTube and Twitter shows that Tehran is indeed worried about losing control of their people;

4) The people are increasingly unsatisfied by the government’s response—and thus the protests are spreading, not decreasing.

The point is: no one knows where this is headed. Is it headed toward a calm re-acceptance of the status quo? Or is it headed to either a new election or Ahmadinejad’s removal by the Mullahs as a way to calm the situation? (This could indeed happen.)

Ahmadinejad is a disgrace. He was—despite our CIAs ridiculous “research” and denials—one of the leaders of the 1979 hostage-takers in Iran. Many of our hostages to this day are adamant that he was one of the so-called students. Thus he is a criminal—and we have allowed him to get away with kidnapping and torturing 53 Americans for 444 days back in 1979-1980.

He hates America and thus rules that way as the President of Iran.

And, of course, he wants to nuke Israel off the map—or at least talk about it as a way to rally radical Jew-haters to his side and become the Number One Muslim Leader worldwide.

Apparently not all Iranians agree with his hate-filled strategies—and used last week’s election as an attempt to move Iran into the 21st Century. Unfortunately, they—and many others—naively thought a dictatorship would honestly count the votes! Duh.

Imagine counting 39 million paper ballots in two hours!

What dictatorship ever allows itself to be voted out of power?

Why does the world care so intensely about this fraudulent election and its aftermath? Because millions are praying that Ahmadinejad would be removed and Iran’s mad sprint to acquire nuclear weapons would cease. Because if it goes much farther, it is inevitable that Israel will strike—and heavily—all the key underground sites for centrifuges and other processes to develop their nuclear military capability. Israel’s hope is to retard the progress of that program.

The result of these strikes will be catastrophic: oil will zoom at once to over $200 per barrel; inflation will soar; the worldwide economy will head again back down; the Muslim world will polarize; America will be dragged into it—either on Israel’s side or, if not, the special American-Israeli relationship will be severely harmed.

All of this—and more—if this evil bastard in Tehran is allowed to continue his hate-filled, mad dash to the edge of a mid-east nuclear winter.

But perhaps all those prayers are being answered by the courageous people protesting the obviously-fraudulent election last Friday.

This is the single most compelling story of 2009. It affects us all.

Pray that—like the Berlin Wall coming down twenty years ago—God’s Hand is in this.

Every week brings ominous new signs that Iran soon will possess operational nuclear weapons.

Just this week Israeli President Shimon Peres - their senior diplomat and wise man - issued an uncharacteristic warning: “If (President) Ahmadinejad doesn’t work with the Obama Administration and the international community to stop building nuclear weapons, of course we will then strike.”

This blunt threat is a startling development coming from President Peres, a normally calm, collected and reticent-to-bluster statesman.

The Israeli President - a ceremonial post not a policy-making one - then added that “we will not be able to move forward on this without the United States.”

And that is the rub. Willa President Obama ever go along with a pre-emptive Israeli strike on Iran? A strike which will roil the international world, cause oil prices to spike to perhaps anywhere from $100 - $200 per barrel virtually overnight? A strike which will earn him the condemnation of the Third World - and maybe our ‘banker’ China? A strike which may cause some sort of Iranian retaliation - either directly or from their surrogates in the international terror world?

Will Obama - under heavy pressure from the pro-Israeli lobby here at home - be able to withstand that pressure to stop Iran before they use the nukes on Israel while Ahmadinejad flaunts Iran’s imminent entry into the Nuclear Club?

This is a decision that Obama does not want to face. He hopes to talk, yak, delay, stall this mess in hopes that something else - a coup perhaps or Ahmadinejad’s removal or Russian intervention - will stop their nuclear weapons program. Just having nuclear reactors is not the problem; making weapons grade plutonium is a major problem for the world.

President Obama has made “negotiation,” dialogue and sharing with our partners/allies the cornerstone of his new foreign policy. This is a direct reversal of what was called G.W. Bush’s “Cowboy Diplomacy” - what was seen as a blustering, ill-conceived unilateralism that ticked off friend and foe alike.

This Iranian nuclear problem will be The Test of Obama’s diplomatic direction.

Can he “convince” Iran to abandon a program they are poring billions into?

Can he “convince” a nation - Iran - to do something they do not want to do - i.e. give up their dream to join Pakistan, India, France and - most importantly - Israel in the all-exclusive Nuclear Club? Entry into this club allows Iran to be the top dog among all Moslem nations - and sends shivers throughout the Arab world as they have never been comfortable with the inbred-superiority of the Persians.

Israel is obviously apoplectic over Iran’s behavior since the US invaded Iraq. That lifted the “block” on Iran and freed the way for Tehran to actively finance and run their surrogates in Hezbollah and Hamas and in effect surround Israel and infiltrate from both the north and south.

Once a nation is “in” the Nuclear Club they are immune to invasion or pre-emptive attack. No wonder Saddam tried to join - until the 1981 raid when Israel knocked out their Osirak reactor - and then tried to bluff his opponents into thinking he had nukes right up until our 2003 invasion. Because he knew that he would be immune to attack once he had possession of these weapons.

Iran is rushing to get nuclear weapons. Israel is worried that the Hitler-like Ahmadinejad will try to carry out his crazy, sick rhetoric. He has called Israel a “bacteria” that needs to be “eradicated.” He has predicted all sorts of dire scenarios that would see the “elimination” of Israel.

We are headed for something big on this issue - during the Obama presidency.

We need to worry that Obama is seen by our enemies as weak.

Will they try to exploit that perceived weakness?

And will Obama let them?

Watching the Israeli-Hamas War in the Gaza - which is at best ‘suspended pending further hostilities’, we need to ask a basic question: can the Arab countries ever accept Israel as their neighbor? Or will they continue to work toward the day when they can “drive Israel into the sea,” to use Yasser Arafat’s memorable words?

Pat Buchanan tells a revealing story that helps clarify where we might be headed: in the summer of 1967 just as the Six Day War - between Israel and Syria, Jordan and Egypt - had ended, former Vice President Richard Nixon and Pat Buchanan were traveling through the region and arrived at an Israeli medical tent in the Sinai desert. Israeli doctors were treating the wounded, including captured Egyptian soldiers. An Israeli doctor asked an Egyptian soldier he was patching up, “Look, we fought in 1948 and we won...then in ‘56 and we won...and now we have again won...why do you keep fighting us?”

The wounded Egyptian fighter replied, “Because you may defeat us 12 times but we will win the 13th time we fight.”

And, of course, that is the point: Israel is always on the verge of defeat by their neighbors (especially Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas) - and their neighbors’ sponsor (Iran).

Israel - created out of the painful memory of the Holocaust - has always vowed to “Never Again” allow itself or its people to be “exterminated.” So they have created not only a strong and vibrant economy out of an arid desert, but they also built a juggernaut of a military force - to act as a deterrent against any and all enemies who might try anything.

In the 60 years of Israel’s existence, their economy - coupled with huge amounts of US military aid - has allowed Israeli to develop a cutting-edge military force which includes nuclear weapons, although that has never been publicly acknowledged. The IDF - Israeli Defense Force - has won every war since 1948; it did struggle in 2006 with the invasion of southern Lebanon to stop similar rocket attacks to those lobbed in recently by Hamas; many view the Olmert Government’s response and preparedness as weak and soft.

But Israel’s clear military superiority over their enemies - separate or combined - has allowed Israel to survive in a difficult neighborhood for 60 years.

However we are now in a new era when the day is approaching when Israel’s enemies will acquire nuclear devices. Whether Iran develops its own, or oil-rich Arab potentates buy some on the black market, or Islamic radicals overthrow the Pakistani government and harness their already-operational nuclear arsenal - the Muslim enemies of Israel will soon have access to these weapons.

This should worry us all.

Most of us have lived our whole lives in the Nuclear Age; growing up in the 1950s and 1960s, we drilled for a nuclear war with the Soviet Union. Bomb shelters were built all over the US; we all prepped for nuclear attack.

But a prevailing doctrine has so far prevented either side - the USSR or the USA - or China - or Pakistan and India - from attacking each other with the Big One. That is the doctrine known as Mutual Assured Destruction (M.A.D.). Simply put, this was the logical, rational understanding by both sides that if either side launched a pre-emptive nuclear strike, the other side would quickly retaliate with a nuclear counter-strike which would kill hundreds of thousands of people. Thus the damage to both sides would be so huge that such a war was, in fact, not ‘winnable.’

Of course M.A.D. is predicated on rational thinking by the leaders of nuclear-armed nations. As ‘evil’ as the USSR was during the decades of the Cold War, Soviet leaders were rational enough to realize they could bluster and bully, but any first-strike nuclear attack meant such massive Soviet death and destruction that they could not win such a war.

In that sense - believe it or not - nuclear weapons have actually prevented wars or kept smaller wars from escalating. For example, these weapons may have kept the Soviets from invading Western Europe in the 1950's. And maybe the Red Chinese backed off invading South Korea because of our ‘nuclear tripwire’ there.

Now comes the key Mideast question: can M.A.D. work in the Arab-Muslim dispute? The Israelis are rational thinkers who do not want to incinerate their Arab neighbors. If they wanted to, they could do it at any time; and they could have done it for the four decades they have possessed these weapons while their enemies have not had them.

Muslim fanatics however are a different case. Their call to martyrdom counteracts the M.A.D. rationality argument.

Indeed, these radical Jew-haters can be classified as madmen who have no regard for human life, including the lives of their own people.

Thus the M.A.D. doctrine may run afoul of these crazed madmen who view their ticket to heaven as coming from killing as many Jews and Christians as possible.

Israel faces an uncertain and un-stable future. If the anti-Israeli faction gets their hands on nukes, they may use them against Israel regardless of the consequences to their own population. That is why we all must keep trying to prevent these nations from getting their mitts on nuclear devices.

Otherwise we may witness a second Holocaust.

If Barack Obama wins this election, what will the next four years be like in this country?

Obama and the Democratic Super Majority in the Congress, led by Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, will certainly move to the extreme, hard Left:

There will be no one to check or block or restrain their worst, i.e. most liberal, instincts. Here is some of what they will do:

• Try to move the nation to Western European-style socialism. Hillary would have done this, too, had she won and Obama will, too, beginning in January. Each had dozens of new FDR-style spending programs they featured during their campaigns;

• This means heavier federal involvement in health care; perhaps the Federal Government will eventually take this over and nationalize it;

• Cradle-to-grave federal programs; all aspects of our lives will be affected - from schools to energy subsidies to doctors’ salaries to regulation of hospital costs to corporate governance to federal mandates on states and municipalities to a federal take-over of many pension funds;

• Yes, these un-restrained liberals, drunk with power, will re-impose the incorrectly named Fairness Doctrine to nail Rush and Hannity and Savage and their local acolytes. The Left sees Talk Radio as the one bastion of the media they can’t penetrate - so they’ll simply neutralize it and neuter it with this doctrine;

• They will cut defense spending - perhaps by up to 25% - they always do - as a quick way to move money into social programs;

• They will create massive new government spending programs - supposedly to re-build our “crumbling infrastructure” - but as a payoff to their labor pals;

• Whenever someone in the media dares to question what they are up to, these newly arrogant-with-power lefties will say, “Look what Bush and the Republicans did? Socialism? It was the Republicans who took over the banks and pored over one trillion dollars into bailouts!”

• The liberals will go after corporate pay and try to legislate limits on CEO salaries;

• NEWSWEEK or TIME will have a cover story on The War Against The Rich;

• For the first year or two, the so-called mainstream media will remain totally in the tank for Obama and for this leftist agenda;

• Some writer will coin a phrase, i.e. the Square Deal, the New Deal and the Great Society, which will describe what Obama is trying to do;

• There will be talk of massive amounts of USG money being sent to Africa;

• The idea of sending US troops to African hot spots, i.e. Darfur and Kenya, will come up soon after the Inaugural;

• Some Civil Rights leaders will raise the idea of ‘reparations’ for the descendants of slaves;

• Michele Obama will be un-leashed and will quickly become the most unpopular First Lady - ever. Some people will almost miss the days of Hillary Clinton. Stories will abound about how she is hurting her husband’s political standing. His staff will try to muzzle her - and stories will then surface that there is a war between the Obamas inside the White House;

• Pakistan will deteriorate and almost fracture - and Obama will be more aggressive toward Al Qaeda and the Taliban than Bush was;

• Obama will tilt pro-Palestinian - and his relations with Israel will deteriorate; no American President will have had such bad relations with our staunchest ally;

• By the Fall of 2009, Obama’s approval rating will be down to 42%; his disapproval rating will be 45%; the nation will - again - be divided and polarized;

• Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson will not be frequent visitors to the Obama White House; the savvy Obama staff will try not to allow the Obama Administration to be painted with the Sharpton/Jackson poisonous paint;

• Teddy Kennedy will die - and the funeral will be a Who’s Who of the Left and of the DC Establishment. His funeral will be on national TV - and his “accomplishments” will be touted for weeks, while the death of Mary Jo Kopechne will be a small footnote; the media will fawn all over the Kennedys - all over again;

• Iran will smell weakness in Obama and make a move of some sort - perhaps in Lebanon; or, possibly, Tehran and Obama will make peace first and have a Summit - and then Iran will take advantage of a weak Obama;

• Leftists of all stripes will emerge as new ‘stars’ in the Obama Era. They will be products of today’s ‘progressive’, race and gender-based education system - and they will flaunt their arrogance and haughtiness;

• All sorts of crazy ideas will surface - from nationalizing certain companies and industries to God knows what; remember Lani Guinier? She is nothing compared to what is coming from this crowd;

• The anti-gun crowd on the Left will change federal law and try to end gun shows;

• Using Bush's "faith-based" programs as cover, the Left may allow some sort of disguised federal aid to church groups- especially leftist churches ala Jeremiah Wright's church and others preaching African Liberation Theology;

• Capitalism will be seen as an evil; all the anti-capitalistic nonsense taught in our colleges and universities will rear its ugly head in statements, confirmation hearings and interviews with new administration figures;

• The Congress will try to free hundreds of thousands of prison inmates who are serving time for drug and non-violent offenses; and then they’ll try to register them to vote for the Democrats in the 2010 mid-term elections;

• Most of G.W. Bush’s Executive Orders regarding family planning, stem cell research, and foreign aid coupled with family planning will be reversed;

• Obama and the Democrats will grant amnesty to the 12-30 million illegals already here - and the Border Fence will never be built; millions of new illegals will continue to stream into our nation; the Democrats will try to register these new voters as Democrats, of course, and that will alter all our politics for years to come;

• The Obama-Democratic Congressional Axis will nominate and confirm the most left-leaning federal judges in our history as payback for what G.W. Bush and the GOP did in the 2001-2007 period. Watch out - some real whackos are coming onto the bench;

In sum, the Obama Years will be the culmination of the last forty years of horrendously biased education coupled with a climate of liberal guilt and Political Correctness. Let’s close with this quote from the British Spectator - which sums up what is about to happen here in the USA. (The Brits Have a Way With Words):

"You have to pinch yourself—a Marxist radical who all his life has been mentored by, sat at the feet of, worshiped with, befriended, endorsed the philosophy of, funded and been in turn funded, politically promoted and supported by a nexus comprising black power anti-white racists, Jew-haters, revolutionary Marxists, unrepentant former terrorists and Chicago mobsters, is on the verge of becoming President of the United States.
"And apparently it's considered impolite to say so."

— Melanie Philips, The Spectator (UK) 10/14/08