ONLINE POLLS


After each of the three presidential debates - including last night’s - various news organizations have posted ‘online polling sites’ for any of us to go online and ‘vote’ for the winner.

Have you been paying attention to these?

Have you voted and seen the constantly updating results?

In every one of these after each debate - and the vice presidential one, too the results have Kerry swamping Bush. Often the margin is about 80%-20%.

Yes, pro-Kerry ‘voters’ are being directed by the Democratic National Committee and the Kerry Campaign to ‘vote’ on these sites in order to generate a positive ‘Kerry Wins Debate’ story for the next news cycle. That is obvious.

But here is something curious: why isn’t the Bush Campaign and the RNC doing the same thing?

Why are the Republicans ceding this news headline to the Democrats and thus helping them create a positive ‘spin’ for Kerry?

As former Howard Dean campaign manager and Internet political guru Joe Trippi said last Friday on MSNBC, “The Bush Campaign boasts of having an email list of 7.5 million supporters. Why aren’t those people ‘voting’ as pro-Kerry supports are?”

Does this refusal of pro-Bush supporters to bother to ‘vote’ in these online polls presage a lethargy on November 2 when the real voting takes place?

That may be the significance of the Kerry online post-debate ‘victories.’

The PASSION DIFFERENTIAL is the key to this race: that is the difference between the white-hot anti-Bush voters and forces versus the pro-Bush side.

Kerry is riding a wave of hatred/loathing/disdain/disgust of GW Bush that is causing unprecedented new levels of registration all over the country. All accounts so far are of a disproportionate Democratic tide of new registrants for this election. Logic tells us that the DNC and George Soros-paid-for registration effort will be followed by a massive and efficient get-out-the-vote effort on Election Day. Otherwise, why go to the expense and effort of getting new registrants at all?

This anti-Bush fervor is exemplified with the zeal with which these people hop online and begin ‘voting’ right after each debate.

Worrisome for the pro-Bush side is repeated ‘losses’ in these otherwise meaningless polls - coupled with a much less successful job of registering new GOP voters.

Indeed, there is inside the GOP base a certain small - but significant - fraction of previous Bush voters who will not vote for him this time. Just that subtraction of 1% or 2% of his 2000 vote could cost him the election this time.

That is why these online ‘polls’ may be a leading indicator of trouble looming on Election Day for the Bush-Cheney campaign.

WHY, GOD?


The sad, sad death of Christopher Reeve - the “Superman” actor who became a quadriplegic 9 years ago - again makes us wonder, “Why does God allow such suffering? Is there a higher purpose to it? What is the lesson to be learned?”

Sixteen long years ago my older brother had a similar disastrous accident, broke his neck - and many other bones - and became a quadriplegic. He is still alive - thank God.

Along with our mother, I have run his care for all those 16 years - and it is not easy.

The collective suffering among the family is too often ignored. And the patient’s suffering is transferred into his loved ones.

After you get through all the medical problems and the financial ones, too (they are many!), you have to draw back and ask, “Why?”

Why do these things happen?

Is it simply a random case of bad luck?

Or is it meant to lead us to a new level of awareness?

In Christopher Reeve’s case, he is a true American hero because he used his immense suffering combined with his celebrity status to lead the charge for more medical research for spinal cord injuries. Up until about 15 years ago, this was a dead-end medical field. Bright, young, up-and-coming scientists were choosing other fields of medical science to explore and thus not much progress had been made.

But today spinal cord research is a “hot”area of research now - in no small measure thanks to Chris Reeve.

Perhaps God selected this brave young man - who He knew could withstand the suffering of the injury and the subsequent depression - to ‘teach’ the world about these damn injuries.
In the United States alone each year there are more than 10,000 new spinal injury cases. Each one is a devastating tragedy with huge consequences mushrooming throughout a community of people. The family, the nurses and doctors, other care-givers - even carpenters and plumbers and home-builders who often have to renovate bathrooms, ramps, floors and doorways. And none of this takes into account the financial cost - to someone: the family, the insurance companies, and charities who pitch in.

The bottom line of it all: we must cure spinal cord injuries - along with many other disastrous afflictions like MS, Parkinsons’, Cystic Fybrosis, ALS and many, many others.

The key to finding cures?

Yes, money is one. But so, too, is prayer. Prayer not only for the victims and all who are affected, but also prayer for those searching for scientific progress. Cures do not often come in one fell swoop; instead they are incremental - bit by bit.

Christopher Reeve is with God today. We all should pray for his family - and for his soul up in Heaven.

But we should also thank God for using Christopher to help ‘teach’ the world that spinal cord research must be a top priority. Yes, he played ‘Superman’ in the movies, but he was much more heroic when serving a Big Plan to help so many suffering people.

VEEP DEBATE


1) Who won last night’s debate?

Victory is in the eye of the beholder. If you liked Cheney going in you still like him today; the same applies for Edwards.

Both scored points - and both did their political job: attacking the top of the other ticket.

Dick Cheney went after John Kerry as a flip-flopper and a lefty on national defense much more effectively than did GW Bush last week.

Edwards simply echoed Kerry’s lines from last week - because polls show those lines are working.

2) Did last night have any effect on the campaign?

Probably not. All the focus has already shifted back to anticipation of Friday night’s presidential debate.

Friday night is critical for the Bush campaign. Another lame performance could be devastating to the Bush Campaign. Even one sight of pique or cockiness will be magnified by the media.

Expect the audience to ask pretty tough questions of both candidates. Kerry can handle them because he’s been getting attacked all year during his primaries. The question is: can Bush suppress his temper and keep a nice smile plastered on his face for 90 minutes even when he is ticked off?

3) Bremer and Rumsfeld: these two have gone a long way toward discrediting Bush/Cheney at the key moment of the campaign!

Bremer’s admission that we did not originally have enough troops in Iraq to maintain order is a devastating indictment of Bush’s conduct of Iraq - right at the crucial time of the campaign!

And Rummy’s claim that he has seen no evidence linking Saddam to Al Qaeda also completely undecuts Bush and Cheney - and gives Kerry new ammo for the final weeks of the campaign including - Friday night.

What were these two thinking anyway?

4) State of the race today: the campaign is basically tied. The final debates are big - especially for the loser of either because he won’t have much time to clean up his mistakes.

Bush has squandered his lead but is still probably ahead marginally.

Kerry has a bit of upward momentum. And if he is tied going into Election Day he will win because of the huge increases in Democratic registration and the ‘Passion Differential.’

PRACTICE HABITS


There is an old sports axiom: You play in the game the way you practice.

This also applies to other things, including presidential debates.

The more you practice, the better you get also applies here.

Last August - while getting savaged by the Swift Boat Vet advertisements - Kerry was hunkered down on Nantucket Island doing what? Debate preparation! And that was before any agreement had even been reached to have any debates!

In other words, Team Kerry knew that these debates - especially the first one with its build-up and curiosity factor - was going to be a potential turning point in this campaign.

Thus, he was focused, ready, crisp and totally prepared for every eventuality.

Team Bush, on the other hand, is now revealing some troubling facts: according to White House sources on TV Saturday morning: during the debate prep sessions the week before, the Bush staff fired off tough questions at the President to get him ready. He did not like this. And he often expressed his displeasure with flashes of facial anger and grimaces. The staff repeatedly warned him to assume TV cameras would be focused on him despite the 32-page agreement prohibiting ‘reaction shots.’ (Please note that the TV networks were not a party to this agreement.)

Bush performed in the debates exactly as he had in the practice debates. Those flashes of anger and facial expressions have cost Bush dearly.

In the past, GW Bush was always a disciplined campaigner and debater. Opponent were often frustrated by their inability to get him “off-message.”

Not last Thursday!

Bush was an undisciplined, meandering, inarticulate shell of a major political candidate.

Indeed, he, too, performed in the ‘game’ the way he practiced.

And now that his staff is leaking about his own failure to heed their admonishments, Team Bush is showing a measure of internal panic. Plus, the Bush Family hate leaks. So that is also now a factor internally in the dynamic of a reeling campaign.

Now, looking ahead to this weeks two debates:

1) Veep debate: Cheney is going to try to rebut Kerry’s successful debate performance last week. He is going to try to do what Bush failed to do: paint the Kerry record as weak and vacillating.

Edwards, on the other hand, is going to rip Cheney up and down - always with a smile -just as he did as a trial attorney going after a ‘corrupt corporate CEO.’

Edwards has a free ride in this debate. He can’t be hurt by relentlessly attacking Cheney; only the GOP base likes Cheney and they aren’t going to ever vote for Edwards anyway.

Edwards can help his ticket - and his own political future - by tearing Cheney apart as a corrupt Big Oil businessman who rigged government contracts (Halliburton) for his old company and even had close ties (Enron) with the other biggest evil corporation of the decade.

2) Friday night’s Presidential ‘Town Hall’ in St. Louis: GW Bush must realize that he is under the gun. One facial expression that is ‘off,’ one grimace or flash of annoyance and the media will crucify him. Plus, you can bet that the audience will be ‘packed’ with pro-Kerry voters who will ask Bush some tough questions.

Team Bush cannot afford another disastrous debate performance; they need a tie at least to forestall the pro-Kerry momentum now sweeping the country.

One other item: the New York Times is reporting unprecedented voter registration numbers in many key states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and others. Most seem to be in pro-Democratic areas.

This could lead to a phenomenon on Election Day: a huge turnout - especially among anti-Bush voters.

Kerry’s debate-driven resurgence has given those anti-Bush forces real hope that he can win.

Team Bush better realize they are now in trouble and can ill afford any more example of an undisciplined candidate acting peevish and petulant.

DISTURBING PATTERN


Objective analysis of last night’s debate:

1) President Bush continued a strange pattern of coming up ‘tired’ and oddly ‘passive’ in major media appearances this year: A) a weak State of the Union address in January; B) A subdued Meet the Press performance with Tim Russert in the Oval Office in the winter; and C) a surprisingly ineffective major speech on the War in Iraq at the Army War College at Carlyle, Pennsylvania.

Now, he did give a damn good nomination speech at the Republican National Convention and he has been strong on the campaign stump ever since.

But last night he was not “on his game” at all - and thus resumes another ‘disturbing pattern’:

2) From a purely political point of view, the Bush Campaign should have primed Bush to “finish Kerry off” last night. In other words, when you have your opponent down on the canvas, knock the hell out of him and finish the job once and for all!

In 2000, Gore squandered a similar chance in September to put Bush away. He didn’t - and thus lost the election.

This summer - after his Boston Convention - Kerry held an 8-point lead over Bush and went out on the road. What happened? He sat on his lead and allowed the Swift Boat ads to crucify him. Suddenly Bush was back in the game and soon leading the race.

Then came last night. With Bush ahead in all polls going into the debate - and with Democrats ‘demoralized’ over Kerry’s lackluster campaign appearances - Bush had his one chance to finish Kerry off and perhaps win in a landslide on November 2.

Instead, he came up oddly passive, halting, washed out and - by his own staff’s admission - ‘tired.’

His staff is attributing this fatigue to the emotionally draining visit to Hurricane Jeanne survivors in Stuart yesterday morning. Whatever caused it, the White House staff simply cannot allow the President of the United States to look tired and thus annoyed by his opponent’s attacks.

In this space I have previously written that any President has a hard time prepping for contentious debates because of the deference shown to a President by his staff. And you could see the result last night: Kerry was used to attacks because of the dozens of Democratic debates held during the past year while the President clearly looked ticked off at Kerry’s unrelenting attacks on the Bush record. (This may be why the Bush forces tried to eliminate ‘reaction shots’ as part of the ridiculous 32-page debate agreement. The networks were not a party to that agreement; the reaction shots are often more telling that the questions and answers.)

3) Kerry’s supporters are re-energized. Going into last night they were fearful of a trouncing on November 2. Today they believe the next 4 weeks may count for something.

The Bush forces are not daunted by last night - but the next two debates are now even more important because everyone will be wondering how the President will look and act. Will he look less tired? Will he be more aggressive?

Prediction: Bush will be much better next Friday night precisely because the first debate was good ‘prep’ for him. The more you debate, the better you get.

Overall prediction: the race is now going to tighten a bit. How much? A bit. Kerry has reversed his downward momentum. Whether he can generate upward momentum is the next question.

But this race is not over.

And Kerry can and will win if he goes into Election Day tied. In that case, the “Passion Differential’ - more ‘anti-Bush sentiment’ driving voters to the polls than ‘pro-Bush’ sentiment - will propel Kerry to a narrow victory.

The Bush Campaign needs to make sure his lead holds up - and they go into Election Day at least 3-5 points ahead.

This race has a long, long way to go.

HEATING UP


The 2004 presidential race is finally entering the key stage which will determine not only our next president, but also the direction of the country in the next four years.

Elections are two-way propositions: yes, the people learn about the candidates, but the candidates, too, learn from the voters what they want and what they do not want. Only this way can the president who takes the oath next January 20th lead the country effectively. He must get guidance and direction from the people - and so, too, must the Congress.

This past week the campaign took an important turn: we stopped talking about the past - Vietnam, Swift Boats, National Guard records - and began the most important debate of the decade: how will we proceed in both Iraq and the War on Terror - which ought to be called the War on America by Radical Islamic Fundamentalists?

This debate is long overdue because either GW Bush or John Kerry is going to be running our foreign policy next year - and they need clarification from the American people over what our real goals are. There have been so many shifting rationales for the Iraqi invasion - and so many lies, exaggerations, misrepresentations on both sides that it is time the nation focused on Iraq and made some crucial decisions.

Thursday’s debate will, indeed, serve to help the American people learn more about these two men, their views - and all the awful things they have heard about them from 30-second commercials.

This debate begins a national debate over the war on Iraq and the efforts against Al Qaeda.

Bring it on!



1) GROUND GAME:

Here is some campaign news you haven’t heard much of on TV or in the papers: the Democrats - fueled by a white-hot hatred for GW Bush and worry over the direction of the country and paid for by billionaire George Soros - have quietly gone out and registered new voters in the key battleground states at an astounding rate. According to the New York Times, in Florida and Ohio, Democrat groups have registered up to 250% more new voters in 2004 than they did in 2000; conversely, the GOP has registered new voters at a much more modest rate.

What does this all mean?

Well, it might very well turn out to be the key in a close race. The Democrats clearly intend to vote each and every one of these new voters. So, in a close race, just that increased turnout - as opposed to a more static Bush/GOP vote - could make the difference.

No wonder that GW Bush daily harangues Karl Rove and his senior campaign staff with the same question, “How are we doing on get-out-the vote operations for Election Day?”

2) Every weekend the Kerry campaign and the Democratic National Committee are busing volunteers into battle ground states to do walk-throughs, more voter registration and door-to-door canvassing.

A recent participant reported that many of these volunteers are ‘first-time’ political workers who have joined up due to an intense dislike of GW Bush and a fear for the direction of the nation. (The mirror opposite of this would be if Hillary were the Democratic nominee for President, anti-Hillary political ‘novices’ would come out of the woodwork to stop her from getting elected.)

So far this anti-Bush passion is not matched on the GOP side. There is a lethargy among the grassroots about this race; perhaps many conservatives read the polls and believe Bush “can’t lose.”

The risk is that, if the polls get close at the end, that Ground Game turn-out by the Democrats could turn enough ‘on-thefence’ states into Kerry states - and he could score a narrow win.

This Ground Game operation is old fashioned politics at its best. It may be the ultimate key to this race.

MORONS


Have you ever noticed that the supposedly smartest - and best educated - people are often the absolute dumbest dopes you have ever heard?

And that these supposed brains are, in fact, totally devoid of any common sense whatsoever?

Well, it is true. And it is chronicled perfectly in a brand new book - INTELLECTUAL MORONS; How Ideology Makes Smart People Fall for Stupid Ideas by Daniel J. Flynn. (Dan previously wrote Why the Left Hates America.)

This book details incident after incident of ‘over-educated’ fools who think they know more than the average American but, in fact, are so off-base as to almost make the reader cry. From ‘sexual liberation’ to ‘Environmentalism’ to outright ‘Anti-Americanism,’ the intellectual class has led this country down the slippery slope of anarchy.

Mr. Flynn details case after case. For example, how sexual researcher Albert Kinsey unleashed a torrent of perverted sexual concepts and practices - almost all demeaning and degrading to women - including violence and ‘rough sex’ - that are now sanctioned, taught and sometimes even advocated on college campuses.

Or, on race relations, Mr. Flynn carefully traces the case of the oft-cited hero of the Left: W.E.B. Du Bois, one of the founders of the push for civil rights. But, in fact, Mr. Du Bois - the first black to earn a doctorate at Harvard and thus a role model for thousands of successive Harvardians - actually devoted himself to racial separatism and communism. Of course, Harvard downplays this even though it has spurned an African-American Department rife with radical philosophies.

And who can ever forget the still-discussed case of the Soviet spy, State Department mole Alger Hiss? Long a fave of the Left, Hiss was actively selling out the United State to Stalin during and after World War II.

To this day, the American academy and the ‘intelligentsia’ stick by Hiss, denying that he was a spy.

Even after the end of the Cold War and the opening of Russian archives proved the direct tie of Hiss to Moscow, the intellectual class has chosen to stick with Hiss. (Perhaps their loyalty remains to the ‘perfect utopian system’ they always saw being created in Mother Russia.)

Facts and proof just get in the way of the leftist ideology.

You would think that well-educated people revere facts and proof; instead they ignore them when convenient.

Mr. Flynn’s powerful book is a sad indictment of the Educated Left in this country. This well-positioned - and financially well-compensated class - often is actively trying to undo the very system under which they are prospering! Only they are so hypocritical that they do not want their own personal situation to be affected.

Given their choice, this over-educated, anti-American class of self-elected intellectuals, would like to rip the heart out of this country and create the Utopia that Lenin and Stalin failed to create.

From Du Bois to Betty Friedan and Gloria Steinem and many others, their goal remains the same: a Revolution from the Left to bring down America as we know her.

You absolutely must read: INTELLECTUAL MORONS; How Ideology Makes Smart People Fall for Stupid Ideas by Daniel J. Flynn. It is just coming out right now - and can be bought online from Amazon and Barnes & Noble.

Buy it, read it - and guard yourselves and your families from these out-of-control, over-educated ‘Intellectual Morons’ who want to tear our great country apart.