HILLARY & RUDY IN TROUBLE



While the so-called Mainstream Media (MSM) continues to salivate over a potential Hillary-Rudy general election match-up next year, they - as usual - are missing the real story of the race:

It is quite likely neither of them will be their party’s nominee next year.

Let us examine the State of the Race as of today:


1) The Democratic Race: Hillary had nine months of almost-constant positive press. Since she began the campaign in February, the MSM has fawned over this supposedly-smartest woman in the world. While Barack Obama and John Edwards faded away a bit, she was afforded non-stop softball coverage.

But now that has changed; he run of good press has reversed. She is now headed into a vortex of negative stories that feed into one another. First came her inability to take a clear stand on Governor Spitzer’s idiotic plan to give drivers licenses to illegal aliens. (Spitzer, by the way, has come under such attack that he now admits he might withdraw the idea entirely.)

That contretemps morphed into a related problem for Hillary: her constant double-talk, where she takes ambiguous positions on issues - and leaves listeners confused over what she just said. This Clinton-speak is her and Bill’s - trademark - and it is now hurting her Big Time.

The this past weekend came another potentially-defining revelation: the Clinton Campaign has been planting questions in her audiences at her Town Hall forums around Iowa. At least two people have admitted to being approached by Clinton staffers for this purpose.

In Iowa, where the caucus-goers are politically sophisticated, this type of activity could hurt her very badly. It fits into an emerging picture of Hillary as a cold, scripted, unlikeable, manipulative, say-anything candidate. And she is running against two guys - Barack and Edwards - who are all-too-happy to pound her now that she is in trouble.

Hillary’s other problem, as a friend of mine points out, is that she is trying to run a traditional Republican campaign in the Democratic primaries. In other words, a “it’s my turn now” campaign devoid of any substance and resentful of any challenges. And like past GOP candidates who have relied on the incumbent President or a past President to endorse them, Hillary repeatedly runs back to her husband when trouble looms.

The history of Iowa is crucial here. The final few weeks are the whole story. So a campaign wants to be on an upward trend going into the holidays and the January 3rd caucuses.

In 2004, Howard Dean was as far ahead nationally as Hillary is today; and he was substantially ahead in Iowa, too. Then he began to slip in December as voters took a look at his general election viability. Seeing this slippage, Dean got testy at a questioner at a Town Hall forum - and he was finished! He deteriorated almost overnight and lost. In Iowa, what goes on at one campaign stop is reported statewide almost instantly.

That is why this planted-question story may become a huge problem for Hillary in the next weeks to come.

With seven weeks to go, Barack Obama is on the upswing, Edwards is static and Hillary is in trouble.

The Iowa outcome may end up like this (with all three within a few points of each other):

1) Obama

2) Edwards

3) Hillary

If that is how it ends up, she is almost finished before we even get to New Hampshire.




2) The GOP Race: Again, the national polls are totally and completely meaningless. Mitt Romney is - today - in a commanding position to win the GOP nomination going away.

How, you ask?

The same answer every four years: look at the state polls of the first four contests: Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina.

Guess who is ahead in each and every one of these four states?

Mitt Romney.

And tell me the last time a candidate won both Iowa and New Hampshire and did not go on to win the nomination?

Rudy’s strategy? He doesn’t have one. He is in love with himself and thus can’t see that his plan to have Florida bail him out on January 29th is almost four weeks too late! He will have suffered a string of defeats before then and have zero momentum. He will be toast.

Of course Tim Russert, Chris Mathews and the rest ignore history, ignore the facts on the ground - and thus they are missing the real story here.



Conclusion: Forget Rudy; he isn’t making it. Mitt can already see the finish line but the MSM is so consumed with trivialities like Pat Robertson’s endorsement that they can’t see what is happening. Plus, the Hillary story is so big that Mitt is flying under the radar right now, which he must like as he has a solid lead in Iowa and just wants to keep it and run out the clock.

Hillary is in Big and Growing Trouble.

She may not make it past New Hampshire.

And plenty more surprises await us.

A POWERFUL ISSUE


The so-called mainstream media has missed it.

So has the so-called Establishment of both parties.

So have the (Poison) Ivy League intellectuals.

So has the Bush White House - and the Clinton HQ.

And McCain...and Katie Couric....and the Washington Post and all the rest of the very people who have already plunged this country into a downward spiral:


Drivers licenses for illegal aliens is a HUGE ISSUE!!!

It is an issue capable of changing the nomination in each party - beginning in 56 days in Iowa and then five days later in New Hampshire.

It is also an issue that could change the outcome of next year’s general election for President.

In every poll, even a majority of Democrats do not want to give illegal alines drivers licenses.

Yet Hillary Clinton flits across the TV screens doing her usual double-and-triple-talk dance - all the while saying she does indeed favor giving drivers licenses to illegals.

This major miscalculation by Hillary has cost her in New Hampshire where, in just a week, her lead over Barack Obama has shrunk to its lowest level this year.

The same in Iowa: out there many Democrats are apoplectic over the influx into factory-heavy Iowa of thousands of illegals. This issue has to hurt Hillary there, too.

Except the Democrats need a candidate to really go after her on this - not just on her double-speak - but on her position in favor of licenses.

And the GOP - down in the mouth after 6 years of Bush failures and betrayals - needs a new candidate who has been consistently against illegal immigration. Unfortunately, Rudy and Romney are major flip-floppers on illegal immigration. Rudy the Liar now claims he’ll stop it. Oh, really? He defended and protected illegals as Mayor of New York! We can’t trust a word he says about this - or anything! Rudy and Romney are shameless in how they will say anything to get nominated. Neither of them believes in anything - other than getting their greedy hands on power.

And this single issue - drivers licenses for illegal immigrants - brought again to the forefront by another out-of-touch incompetent Ivy League lefty, NY Governor Eliot Spitzer - is a potential radioactive bomb certain to doom anyone on the wrong side of this issue.

Spitzer’s own ratings in New York have declined since unilaterally deciding to give out licenses to illegals. Even a majority of New York City residents - perhaps one of the most liberal demographics in the nation - oppose giving drivers licenses to illegal aliens.

This issue is explosive.

It can also morph a bit into “Hillary and Spitzer are giving illegal drivers licenses so as to allow illegals to vote.”

As the economy deteriorates and the public sense of confidence declines, this issue will only become more central to the essence of the 2008 election.

Watch it; it is going to be HUGE.

And do not trust Rudy or Romney when they suddenly re-create themselves into opponents of illegal immigration.

EXACTLY ONE YEAR


It is exactly one year before the 2008 Presidential and Congressional elections - November 4, 2008.

On another November 4th - twenty eight years ago - November 4, 1979 - the so-called “students” seized the US Embassy in Tehran and held our diplomats and Marines for 444 days.

That single incident cost Jimmy Carter his presidency, launched the Reagan Revolution - and began the War Against Fundamentalist Islam.

This past weekend - November 3-4, 2007 - Pakistan imposed a State of Emergency following a recent spate of violence and several assassination attempts on President Pervez Musharraf, whose dismissal of the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court smacks of the extra-legal act of a dictator (which he is).

Could it be that this action - exactly one year before the crucial 2008 American election - will have the same impact on our 2008 elections as the seizure of our embassy did 28 years ago?

Let us look at a few items:


• Pakistan is a nuclear power. If the Musharraf Regime collapses - which is inevitable - what will happen to these weapons? Will they fall into the hand of Al Qaeda?

• Al Qaeda and the Taliban are now based in northwestern Pakistan. Many believe that the Pak CIA - known as the ISS - actually created The Taliban so as to keep control of neighboring Afghanistan;

• Osama Bin Laden is the single most popular man in Pakistan; his fundamentalist philosophy is the dominant way of thinking throughout Pakistan. Their madrassas churn out thousand of students steeped in this radical, hate-filled philosophy - with the ‘best’ channeled into suicide bombing and martyrdom;

• Osama is porbably in Pakistan - and the ISS knows it and is protecting him;

• Dr. A. Q. Kahn - the father of the Pak nuke - has systematically sold and spread his nuclear formulas to other enemies of the USA: North Korea, Syria, Lybia and Iran;

• All of this makes it clear that Pakistan is the epicenter of the world’s ongoing difficulties.



Here are a few key questions that might influence our 2008 election:

• If and when the Musharraf Government falls, what comes next? Does Osama do what he did twice before - in Sudan and Afghanistan: become the guru/power-behind-the-throne for a ‘front’ government?

• What happens to the substantial nuclear arsenal? Does Al Qaeda get control of it?

• Does India - the Pakis’ main enemy - move in and try to neutralize these weapons?

• Does the US military have a plan to go in during the inevitable chaos and ‘secure’ these weapons and prevent them from falling into the wrong hands?

• What government replaces Musharraf? What happens to Benazir Bhutto? Does the next assassination attempt prove to be - sadly - successful?


In these question may lie the key to the US elections in exactly one year.

HILLARY’S MAJOR MISTAKE


Hillary’s major stumble Tuesday night on the issue of giving illegal aliens New York State drivers licenses could very well be the beginning of the end of her campaign - if not in the primaries then in the general election.

No issue strikes a cord like this issue. Period.

Here in New York, Governor Eliot Spitzer has imploded over this issue - and his political career is already in tatters. (Yes, he was already on Life Support for his criminal behavior in a NY State scandal nicknamed Troopergate, but this license plan was the coup de grace.) He is being attacked from all sides for taking multiple positions on this issue - and now Hillary has jumped into this cauldron with him.

It will cost her Big Time.

1) First, she refused to take a stand in the debate. She pulled one of her normal Hillaryisms where she said absolutely nothing of substance.

2) Then her pathetic opponents jumped all over her for taking no position - or for ‘sounding’ like she was waffling. Of course, their problem is they all favor giving drivers licenses to illegals so they can’t attack her on the substance of the issue.

3) Then, the day after this disastrous debate for the prohibitive front-runner, she comes out for Spitzer’s plan. So she has now decided to take a position that may be popular among liberal, Iowa caucus-goers (may be, maybe not) but will be political suicide next year if she makes it into the general election.

4) Even here in liberal, blue state New York, this plan is wildly unpopular - even among New York Democrats statewide, among New York City citizens and among every single demographic group in all polls. A majority of every group opposes it!

5) But we Republicans have a bit of a problem: our two front-runners, Rudy and Romney, have also flip-flopped all over the place on the illegal immigration issue. Their records are abominable. True, they didn’t give licenses to them, but Rudy protected them as NY City mayor for 8 years. So we can’t be sure if these two candidates are the right men to exploit Hillary’s major mistake.


6) Back to the Democrats: they are going to seize this Hillary Stumble and try to pound her with it. The news media - bored with her ‘inevitability’ - is going to help stir things up. Even her buddy, the almost-forgotten and already-irrelevant Katie Couric, was skeptical of Hillary on the CBS News last night.

7) Look for increasing pressure on Hillary from here on out.

8) Barak Obama has proven to be a complete empty suit lightweight. He can’t handle big time politics and is actually a bit of a dim bulb. John Edwards is a killer - from his past court-room days - but he has little credibility. He is also a total fraud and phony. The Democrats really are pathetic, aren’t they?

9) But so too are the GOP candidates. The ones who are ahead are not the answer.


Still, it will be fun to watch Hillary as she now is under the gun and no longer afforded “she can’t lose” status but the so-called Mainstream Media.

SOMEONE TO SAVE AMERICA


Have been away for two weeks and have had the opportunity to watch the American election develop from afar and to get a new perspective. Some thoughts:


• The Democrats are crazy to nominate Hillary if already 50% of American voters say they will definitely vote against her no matter what. Yes, she could still possibly win with such high negatives, but why take the chance when 2008 is shaping up as a good year for the Democrats? They’d be better off running a dead, embalmed, southern moderate guy.

• Some astute observers now believe we are about to have some sort of major economic meltdown. The sub-prime situation, plus the steep volatility on the stock market may indeed portend imminent trouble. If so, what effect does this have on the election? Certainly it hurts the “party in power” - i.e. the Republicans. But the Democrats are running Congress - so do they get caught up in it, too?

• The “throw out the bums” attitude seems to be growing in intensity - daily. It could be the Perfect Storm - for somebody. But who?

• Could a basically unelectable Hillary ‘grease’ her way in next year because of a weak GOP candidate, a divided and dispirited conservative base, a recession, a war dragging on and other unhappinesses that make her a ‘hold-your-nose-and vote’ winner?

• Is 2008 the year - as has been written about in this space repeatedly - for an Independent Third Candidate to run - and win - by going against “both parties for creating the mess we are in”? Do not rule this out!

• The GOP candidates today: the race is now down to Rudy, Romney and Huckabee. Thompson is a bore and has not caught the imagination of conservatives; Huckabee is more acceptable to them. Brownback dropped out, Ron Paul inspires many but isn’t catching up fast enough. Rudy and Romney are both fatally flawed. They are both posers. It is hard to believe the GOP has come down to two total frauds who have flip-flopped their way to front-runner status. Who can possibly want either of these people to run anything? And how can a conservative party possibly even contemplate nominating either one? No wonder Huckabee is doing better and better. He is a totally acceptable-to-everyone alternative - and should not be ruled out as this thing goes on.

• Ron Paul is also doing better and better - both in fund-raising and in the latest Straw Polls, i.e. this past weekend’s Values Voter Summit in Washington. His problem is he is slow out of the gate - and isn’t catching up in Iowa or New Hampshire fast enough. But his libertarian views are more and more popular.

• The American voter today? Furious over everything; scared about the future; and has yet to find the ‘savior’ candidate who he/she trusts to figure out where to go in the future.

• That is what the 2008 race is all about: finding someone to ‘save’ America.

• And that is why an Independent Third candidate - not a nut like Perot who just wanted to hurt Bush I - but someone who really wants to win, could indeed win next year.

• But everything has to break right: both parties in the dumpster with awful nominees, a distressed American electorate - and the key ingredient of all: the right candidate. So far he has not appeared on the national scene.
• But there is still time.

HILLARY-CARE:FROM CRADLE TO GRAVE


Another day, another window into the real Hillary: a Western European Socialist who wants to implement a vast array of new social programs to ‘hook’ the voter on the heroin of government ‘entitlements’.

Not a week goes by without Hillary unveiling a massive new - and unnecessary - federal social program:

• Two weeks ago she announced in Iowa her $110 billion/year National Health Plan - which will probably cost closer to $250 billion/year;

• Then she announced her Baby Bond program: a $5,000 bond given to every baby when they are born. Why this is done isn’t known, nor is who manages the money, what you can do with it and what you can’t do with it. Cost? $25 billion a year;

• Now, her latest: a $1,000 per person ‘contribution to your 401(k) retirement plan - or else the government creates a new, special retirement account for everyone. Cost? At least $25 billion/ year.

Hey, it’s only October of 2007. At this rate, Hillary has 13 months to announce dozens of more spending plans before the presidential election!

Now, do we need these things?

Are these new federal spending programs - and remember that once they are implemented they are virtually impossible to eliminate or reduce - necessary? Are the people demanding them? Are these programs addressing a pressing issue in our country right now?

Health care is a huge problem - but Hillary’s plan doesn’t fix it; in fact, like Bush’s disastrous Prescription Drug Program, her plan will make the health care/insurance problem even worse.

Most government programs which aim to solve a problem in fact compound the problem in unexpected ways - plus they require new taxes on the middle class, which today cannot afford another penny of taxes.

Oh, sure, Hillary’s disciples will tell us that they are “only going to raise taxes on the ‘mega-rich.’” But that won’t do the trick. In order to pay for all these new programs, it will require Democrats doing what they always do: sap the middle class with huge taxes to pay for these programs. Period.

Furthermore, politically Hillary is trying to do the opposite of George W. Bush: by doing everything for people she contrasts herself to the perceived lack of caring from Bush. Plus, like her hero FDR, she wants to create a lasting social legacy like the New Deal.

Now, let’s get to the philosophical question: is it the role of Washington DC to provide each of us with a ‘birth bond’ and a ‘retirement account’ and to give us health care and other new ‘entitlements’?

Is that the proper role - in the United States of America - of the federal government?

Or, instead, shouldn’t we follow Lincoln’s simple dictum: “government should only do for people what they cannot do for themselves”?

Now, a sadness: these Republican presidential candidates are pathetic in these debates when it comes to defining what we conservatives and Republicans ought to believe. Their blind defense - with the exception of Ron Paul - of everything GW Bush has done is killing them and eliminating any credibility they might have had among Independent voters, who are the key to winning next year.

Fred Thompson had his one moment to seize the race - and he bombed. So it’s Rudy and Romney - the two biggest flip-floppers in the race - neither of whom has a principled bone in his body.

Oh how I despair for our country!

And many, many others share this sense of desperation over the direction of this great land.