This hypothetic column is for those of us who are honest conservatives. Read it - and answer the questions honestly, OK?

December 2000: Vice President Albert Gore - supported by the decision of the US Supreme Court to allow a full Florida recount - is declared the 43rd President of the United States.

9/12 - the day after the attacks on New York and Washington DC - President Gore announces a full-scale retaliation against Al Qaeda and the Taliban Government in Afghanistan. But, content to ‘farm out’ the war effort to the Northern Allliance, the Gore Administration dispatches only 20,000 US troops to Afghanistan.

The Hunt for Osama Bin Laden begins - sort of.

Meanwhile, as Iraq’s Saddam Hussein continues to make ominous sounds, Team Gore decides to change course and invade instead of continuing to apply sanctions on Iraq - and to emulate the successful 40-year Cold War strategy of ‘containment’ rather than a costly pre-emptive invasion.

So Gore and his Vice President pressure CIA analysts to “cherry pick” only that evidence of WMDs that justifies this pre-emptive invasion. (Many insiders warn that the evidence is weak, but the President ignores them.)

Here at home - quietly - the White House decides it needs to ‘data mine’ phone calls and emails. Blowing off the legal judgements of in-house lawyers, the President and Vice President decide to order them without a court order - even though President Gore tells people in 2004 public appearances that he “would never do phone taps without a court order.”

A supporter and contributor is sent to Niger to check on uranium sales to Saddam and when his name surfaces 2 years later, powerful White House insiders leak that man’s wife’s secret CIA identity - and lie about it to a Grand Jury. One is indicted and other awaits word from the prosecutor.

Meanwhile here at home the Gore Administration runs up huge deficits, spending money like it was printed on trees. Gore’s cronies up on the Hill sell access to a crooked lobbyist and that lobbyist also has visited Gore at least 5 times in the White House. Gore adamantly refuses to release official White House photographs of him with this lobbyist.

The Gore Justice Department tries to order Google to turn over the search requests of every American.

As things deteriorate on the ground in Iraq, Team Gore continually changes course, changes leaders - and watches as the fundamentalist Muslims steadily take over Iraq and form an alliance with Tehran.

Now, let us ask ourselves as conservatives: why are the above policies and decisions supported when President Bush does them, but would clearly not be if a President Gore did them?

How can we conservatives support “nation building” all over the world?

And spending hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars on waste and fraud?

And running up huge deficits - and allowing Beijing to own our debt?

And so weakening our military that we cannot - if needed - fight another war in Iran or elsewhere if needed?

And expanding federal power without a court order to spy - through Google - on all Americans, not just Muslim suspects?

And lying about a CIA operative?

And stonewalling Congress on intelligence information and the President’s Daily Brief?

Can’t you just see how enraged we would be if all of the above had happened under a - gulp! - President Gore?

So where is the conservative sense of intellectual honesty?

Is it OK to do these things if we do them and not OK if the liberals do them?

As a lifelong conservative Republican, I can’t stomach bad acts - whether one of us does them or a liberal does them. They are still bad acts.

Until we clean up our act, we are never going to be able to clean up our country.


Everyone suddenly is an expert on Osama Bin Laden and opining on the real message of yesterday’s audio tape.

Everyone is a psychologist, an audiologist - and a self-proclaimed expert on the inner workings of Al Queda.

Everyone is a health expert, a nephrologist (kidney doctor) - and a security expert.


Let’s deal only with what we know for certain:

1) On September 11, 2001 Osama Bin Laden orchestrated the single worst attack on the United States in our history;

2) Osama took credit - often - for this attack;

3) Our President promised to “get Osama - dead or alive”;

4) It is four and one half years later - and Osama continues to taunt us with threats, tapes and the very real fear of another looming attack here in the United States.

5) President Bush took the post-9/11 angst, anger and fear we all felt and re-channeled it instead onto Saddam Hussein and the Iraqi regime;

6) Three years after the beginning of the Iraq war, we have lost 2,200 soldiers, 30,000 are seriously wounded, we have spent upwards of $ 220 billion, our military is depleted, re-enlistments are down - and Osama is still out there free as a bird.

This has to be the single worst case of political and foreign policy malpractice - ever.

While Osama attacked us, we attacked Iraq.

And while we are stuck in Iraq, Osama gets ready to attack us again.

What should we have done?

Simple. Instead of Iraq, we should have taken our 150,000 troops - or more if we needed them - combined with so many other countries who in the pre-Iraq days all supported us - and gone onto the ground in both Afghanistan and Pakistan and hunted down this bastard until we bagged him. Period.

That is the American way.

You attack us and you’re going to pay.

Instead, GW Bush manipulated evidence and anger to settle a family grudge against Saddam.

This ongoing disaster has profound consequences - including our present growing problem with Iran over their desire to join the nuclear club.

What should we do about Tehran and their nutty new president, Mahmoud Ahmadinedjad, who was one of the 1979 hostage-takers?

1) Don’t repeat the sophomoric handling of ‘regime change’ in Iraq;

2) Don’t play the Lone Cowboy riding into town to save the day;

3) Realize that all these countries see the same thing: once you have nukes, you are treated with much more respect than those nations that don’t. Look at how we pussy-foot with Pakistan and Red China.

4) It is almost inevitable that Iran - no backward Arab country - will soon have their own nuclear technology that will lead to nuclear weapons. They have smart scientists. We just may not be able to stop this.

5) We should follow the Teddy Roosevelt rule: Speak softly and carry a Big Stick.

The Bushes speak too loudly and have allowed our stick to become de-valued and weak.

In other words, Condi and W need to cool the bellicose, dire talk and instead engage in back-channel, secret diplomacy with Iran. This isn’t easy, doesn’t give you cheap headlines that boost your poll ratings - and often opens you up to charges of doing too little on a looming problem.

But it is the way the world really works. Deal-making, compromises and facing the realities of the situation.

We should already have nailed Osama. If he attacks us again - as he pledged yesterday - our government will have allowed it through the a less-than-maximum effort to get him in the last 4 ½ years. If we had invested the same energy, effort, political will and capital into getting Osama that we have spend on Iraq, we probably would have avenged 9/11 by now.

And in Iran, we need to deal smartly with Iranian leaders - not with cheap public threats and rhetoric.

Former U.S. Representative John LeBoutillier Posted by Picasa


The ‘playing field’ is being ‘prepped’ as if according to a pre-determined script:

A) An increasingly unpopular war with no seeming end - based on questionable evidence of WMD - and supported by both political parties’ establishment;

B) Rising gas prices - (which rise at the drop of a hat) - and home heating fuel - all of which inject worry and cynicism into the body politic;

C) A series of scandals sweeping Washington DC - and which are infecting both political parties;

D) A burgeoning mess for senior citizens who suddenly cannot get their life-saving prescriptions filled - owing to the new Medicare Prescription Drug Program - a product of both political parties;

E) A so-called Mainstream Media which is increasingly shown to be full of fraud and bias and mis-reporting;

F) A corrupt business environment symbolized by Enron, World Com and so many others;

G) The Pentagon’s inability to get life-saving body armor for our troops in Iraq - until someone leaks the internal results of a Pentagon study and then, with 5 days, a shamed Pentagon announces a new shipment of the armor to Iraq;

H) The increased national debt and tragic trade deficit;

I) And the biggest scandal of all: the flood of illegal immigrants across our borders - a scandal which both parties happily turn their cheek to.

This list could go on and on.

It symbolizes the decay of our political leadership - and of character in America.

Today, our celebrity-driven culture idolizes the wrong traits: excessive pride, bragging, rudeness, greed and disgustingly brazen behavior.

And our leaders - in both parties - have shown themselves for what they are: more interested in being somebody instead of doing something.

Yes, all of this decay is ‘prepping the battlefield’ for something long predicted in this space: the inevitable successful run for the White House by an Independent Third Candidate who runs against both political parties for being corrupt co-conspirators in the internal decay of our once-great nation.

Ross Perot in 1992 was leading in all polls going into June of an election year - over an incumbent President Bush and Democrat nominee Bill Clinton. But Perot was strange, didn’t really want to win (he just wanted payback on Bush for a slight in the 1980's) and when he saw that he might indeed win he dropped out of the race. Then, a few months later and starved for attention, he re-entered the race, performed well in the presidential debates and won a respectable 19% of the popular vote.

Now, 16 years later, American has changed. All of the problems listed above have driven up the cynicism level. More and more voters express dismay over the political establishment. And we still have 3 long years to go!

Who will this Independent Third Candidate be?

Will he be some celebrity kookball like Donald Trump? If so, he will be lucky to garner 5 % of the vote.

But if this candidate has legitimate political credentials, is good on TV and can ‘connect’ with the voters, then he can win.

And his victory will be the beginning of something we desperately need in our country: a new political revolution.


Let’s catch up on some news - and review some of this year’s predictions:

1) Matt Long, the injured New York City firefighter: as of Friday the word on Matt is that he had just had a series of orthopedic surgeries and was still in critical condition. But - thanks to God, to doctors and nurses and thanks to your prayers - Matthew Long is still with us! And every day that he survives and recovers - even if it is just one inch at a time - is a gift from above. And there is hope that he will make it.

So let’s all keep praying for Matt - and for others that we know of specifically by name. Don’t be afraid to ask God to help someone who is in difficulty. God does hear us - and He answers prayers.

So let’s all keep asking God to bring Matt Long through this.

2) Delay’s Demise: as predicted in last weeks Predictions 2006 column, the Abramoff Scandal is already having a huge effect on DC. Delay’s decision not to seek a return to his former post of Majority Leader is yet another step into the inevitable: Delay’s ultimate exit from the political scene.

Although he declared yesterday that he will run for re-election in November, that is a long, long way off. The way the dominoes are falling, Delay will be in such disrepute by then that the wise thing will to just exit the scene and move on. Besides, why does he want to become a ‘back bencher’ after having been Majority Leader?

No, I stick with my prediction: Delay doesn’t even run in November, despite what he is saying now.

3) Iraq is spiraling even more out of control by the minute. With 17 American soldiers killed on Sunday - and 30 in the first week of the New Year - how long will the American public stand for our soldiers stuck in the middle of an Iraqi civil war?

Indeed, that is what Iraq has become: Sunnis and Shi’a exacting revenge for past injustices and repression. As long as Saddam was in charge, everyone lived in absolute fear of him and his murderous thugs. But with Saddam out of power, the US has replaced him as Iraq’s Strong Man. This is a role we do not and should not want.

US soldiers are not meant to referee between two ethnic groups with hundreds of years of mutual enmity.

As things continue to deteriorate - the so-called ‘new’ Iraqi Government now may not even be constituted until April - the vacuum will be filled by Iran. And that is the worst news of all.

And it was all so predictable.

4) Abramoff Scandal: yesterday Pat Buchanan used the phrase “dynamiting the outhouse,” to describe this spreading cancer on Washington. He predicted a huge Congressional turnover.

Today, on Imus’ radio program, Newsweek’s Evan Thomas predicted just the opposite: only one or two Congressmen will be prosecuted; instead, the crime was by the lobbyists ripping off the Indian tribes.

If that was true, then why would the Justice Department cut a deal with the main lobbyist? If Members of Congress didn’t break laws, then why would Justice want the cooperation of the lobbyist who handed out the cash?

This scandal is still in its infancy; it has yet to take shape. But the fear on Capitol Hill is real. And Delay’s decision to seek his old post is a tip-off that more is to come.

5) Plame -Rove: the Grand Jury took new testimony last Friday at 9:30 AM. Special Counsel Patrick Fitzgerald is steadily moving ahead - with the intent of indicting Karl Rove for perjury and obstruction of justice. That case is very much alive. Something will happen within weeks.


OK, here we go on another set of new predictions for the New Year. In no particular order:

1) The War in Iraq: 2006 will be the year of retribution, revenge and payback for the Shi’a majority who have clearly won the recent elections. They will take over the all-important Interior Ministry - and from there begin to exact revenge on the Sunnis for decades of murder, torture, and ‘ethnic cleansing.’ Iran will assist them in this effort as Tehran extends its reach right into the key Baghdad ministries. This era of payback has already begun with more and more torture chambers being found up and running in government basements in Baghdad. And Shi’a militias are beginning to roam the countryside executing Sunnis.

Indeed, the Big Winner in our War in Iraq will be Iran; they will win through our efforts what they could not win in eight years of head-to-head war with Saddam in the 1980's.

This will be G.W. Bush’s legacy as President: he allowed the most dangerous Mid-East nation - Iran - to prosper and expand into a regional and perhaps even a nuclear power while we were spending everything on Iraq.

In the end, it will be seen as a total fiasco - almost on the same level as Vietnam.

2) Enron: Ken Lay and my Harvard Business School classmate (and arch-enemy there) Jeff Skilling will easily be convicted and sentenced to the longest white collar sentences in American history.

3) The Indianapolis Colts will win the Super Bowl - a good triumph for their classy coach, Tony Dungy, whose 18-year old son just committed suicide two weeks ago.

4) Special Counsel Patrick Fitzgerald will indict Karl Rove for lying to the Grand Jury and obstructing justice - and that story will rock the Bush White House and the GOP establishment.

5) 2006 mid-term elections: The Democrats’ attempts to tar the GOP with this “Culture of Corruption” label will not work enough to re-gain control of either the House or Senate. They will pick up a few seats - but will remain in the minority.

6) The turnout will be low - reflecting a general disgust for the overall political behavior in Washington.

7) Tom Delay will be indicted in the Jack Abramoff mess and will not even run for re-election in November. He is finished. Fellow GOP House Members want no part of the stench of cronyism and corruption surrounding him.

8) Scandals:

A) The NSA domestic ‘spying’ scandal will not amount to a hill of beans because the public will see that we have to track down sleeper cells here at home. Maybe the White House should have tried a little harder to get a judge to approve of it, but politically it only helps Bush.

B) The Rove indictment will dominate the news and really hurt the White House. Fitzgerald will try to climb the ladder and go after Cheney and maybe even President Bush by trying to ‘flip’ Scooter Libby and Karl Rove.

C) Another scandal: faithful readers will recall previous references to a Big Scandal that has yet to surface. Not wanting to ‘cry wolf,’ I have refrained from writing about this scandal because I cannot make it happen. Yes, I know all about it. It is a huge scandal - bigger than anything including Watergate or any other political scandal in American history. It envelopes both parties - and shows how totally corrupt Washington DC has become. But if and when it breaks into open view is beyond my - or anyone’s - control. It is up to the Good Lord to blow it open and help clean out our government.

Hopefully 2006 will become the Year of the Truth - when the American people finally learn the details of how often they are lied to by leaders of both parties.

Here in the East, along the ocean, there is a grass called phragmites which can not be killed. It is so tough, so persistent, so durable that it will grow right through cement and concrete.

Truth in America is like phragmites: it may take a long time to surface - too long for many of us - but here in the United States of America it does come out.

This Big Scandal is indicative of so much that is wrong with our government and our corrupt so-called mainstream media, too.

Only God can break the hold these people have on us and allow the truth to finally come out.

Let us all hope and pray that 2006 will indeed become known as the Year of Truth in our great country.

Happy New Year to you all!