Watching Tuesday’s GOP debate in Las Vegas this is what Republican voters are looking for and have yet to find: a leader who presents a vision to us—the American people—of how he or she will reverse a widespread sense of national decline and then lead an American revival.

Instead, all we see are quibbling, un-imaginitive candidates who focus on small things instead of the biggest issue of all: how to inspire a dispirited American people and infuse them with a belief that America’s best days are not in the past.

On technical grades, Herman Cain withstood withering attacks on his 9-9-9 plan, but what might hurt him has now been established: an average taxpayer will pay more under his 9-9-9 plan than he or she currently pays. If that argument proves to be accepted as true, then Herman Cain’s popularity will begin to wane. He is so intertwined with his plan that when that plan becomes less popular, so will he. (This happened in 1996 with Steve Forbes and his momentarily-popular Flat Tax; as soon as the people looked at it and compared it to their current taxes, the Flat Tax—and Steve Forbes—dropped like a rock.)

However, Cain is an enormously refreshing candidate who you cannot help but like. He is the repository of most Tea Party voters who like an out-of-the-box, non-politician.

Mitt Romney seemed a bit more petulant than his carefully-controlled performances in the three recent debates. He clearly dislikes Rick Perry, even though Perry has flat-lined as a candidate and should basically be ignored. But Romney couldn’t hold back and really tore into the lost-looking, in-over-his-head Texas Governor. This exchange made Romney look like less of a man – and certainly less presidential.

Ron Paul continued to say things that previous GOP presidential candidates would never have had the courage to say—especially about aid to Israel, closing foreign bases, not building a fence on our southern border and the Occupy Wall Street protestors.

Newt Gingrich always does well in these debates because he breaks the format, critiques the questions – and at the end of this debate criticized all the other candidates for “quibbling.” He was—and is—right. You get to the White House by going big and high – not low and petty.

Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum were almost invisible in this debate and they have no impact on the race anymore; they have become vanity candidates who stay in the race through Iowa—and then disappear.

Conclusion: not the best debate for the Republican Party overall. We did not present a Reaganesque, positive, hopeful, visionary face to the American people.

Both the GOP presidential nominating race—already underway—and next year’s general election are certain to mirror the near-panic and almost-desperation of the American people as they face one key question: is America declining and on a track to permanent ruin?

None of today’s Republican candidates—or President Obama—ever talks about this.

But that is no surprise: the American people are always ahead of the Political Class.

Hanging over the American electorate is: a mood more pessimistic, fearful, worried, and furious-at-government-and- financial-elites and-the-media than at any time in American history.

While the Tea Party believes a debt-ridden Federal Government is to blame, others believe our system is corrupt—or a “rigged game” that favors the rich and powerful over the rest of the American people.

All of this is the context of the 2012 presidential campaign.

Now, the GOP race: how can a southern-based, heavily evangelical Christian political party nominate a northern-based Mormon?

How can a political party that abhors government-mandated health care plans nominate the first governor in the country to actually impose such a plan on his state?

How can a political party comprised of Tea Party activists nominate the one candidate who does not have a good relationship with the Tea Party?

And yet it is “conventional wisdom” to say that Mitt Romney is the “GOP front-runner.”

Yet each new aspirant with Tea Party support—beginning with Donald Trump last spring and then followed by Bachmann and Perry and now Cain—have all surged to a lead or a close second to Romney—however briefly—before self-imploding. (Cain has not deteriorated—yet.)

What does this tell us about Romney? He is resilient and tougher than he looks. But he is also a lousy political candidate because he does not connect with voters. Period.

Connecting cannot be taught. You either have it—or you don’t. And Mitt doesn’t have it.

So any votes he’s getting now are the result of the failures of his opponents. And that applies to a race versus Barack Obama next fall: Romney gets the anti-Obama voters—and there are a lot of them. It may even be enough to win.

But you can bet that Team Obama—with the complicity of his supporters in the in-the-tank-for-Obama/so-called Mainstream Media—will unleash eight months of merciless attacks on Romney, painting him a phony and a fraud who has taken every conceivable side of every issue (mostly true) and a brutal lay-off artist in private business at Bain Capital (also mostly true). Look for commercials interviewing entire towns of people who lost their jobs when Romney broke up their companies and sold off its parts for huge profits—and thus “enriched” himself.

At the same time, look for the possibility that Team Obama tries to run a pseudo-in-name-only Tea Party candidate for President as a Third Option—all to siphon 5% or more of the vote from Romney.

That 5% might just be enough to tilt a few key states to Obama—and give him a victory in a how-low-can-you-go gutter campaign.

Around April or May—with a nation thoroughly sick by then of both Romney and Obama - there will be a political vacuum waiting for a Third Option.

If the right person indeed steps forward—a savvy anti-politician who is actually a great politician—he can actually win the presidency in this chaotic year.

A true Independent who runs against the Political Class can address both the political and financial corruption that has brought us down.

All of this inside a nation which wants a race to determine how to reverse America’s decline.

Will the 2012 campaign mirror that decline—or be the first step in America’s resurrection?

Ever since the heady days of Ronald Reagan, the Republican Party and Conservative Movement—and the Tea Party is now a key element of both—have been yearning for “another Reagan.”

President Reagan is remembered as a successful conservative President who had it all: he was attractive, great on TV, a natural leader and he united the country.

Even though he was a once-in-a-lifetime political candidate and a truly historic figure, many on the Right think we’ll find another Reagan just by looking!

Beginning in 1999, this “another Reagan” yearning manifested itself in the spectacle of hundreds of GOP officials rushing to Austin and begging then Governor George W. Bush to run for the White House.

In 2008 this syndrome manifested itself in former Senator/actor Fred Dalton Thompson. Sadly, Mr. Thompson proved to be a lackluster candidate—certainly not a Reagan.

Now, in 2012, after a miserable three years of recession and the Obama Administration, the Right has ping-ponged from Sarah Palin to Donald Trump to Michelle Bachman to Rick Perry and Herman Cain—all in less than six months!

And now they are putting the full-court squeeze on Governor Chris Christie, who is speaking tonight at the Reagan Library.

The governor is the victim of a political party unsure of itself and—since the death of Ronald Reagan—without a leader who speaks to our souls and best exemplifies all that is good about being both a Republican and an American.

All of this is happening because each candidate gets one moment in the conservative spotlight. If any one of them had seized the moment—the way Reagan did in 1964 when he gave what became known as The Speech on national TV on behalf of Barry Goldwater’s campaign – they would have become the new Mr. or Mrs. Conservative. From there it is an almost-automatic step to the GOP nomination. And then the White House is within sight.

But each of these candidates has flubbed their chance. And the spotlight then moves on, searching for someone to seize that opportunity.

Chris Christie is more popular as a non-candidate than he would be once he got into the race.

He might in fact wear badly over time. He is aggressive and a bit abrasive – precisely why the Right likes him from afar. But every day—through multiple news cycles—would his in-your-face style play well? Would independent voters like that style? And would Christie’s somewhat more-moderate views on some issues turn off the Right, the way Perry’s soft stance on discounted tuition for the children of illegal aliens has sent him spiraling downward in the polls?

Ronald Reagan was soft-spoken, light-at-the-right-time, tough-when-needed – but he knew how to modulate.

We do not know if Christ Christie—in office for a grand total of 22 months—has any of those skills.

The GOP—desperate to find the Next Reagan—today thinks Chris Christie is the new Savior.

Maybe they need to realize something: there will never be another Ronald Reagan. We were fortunate to have him. It is asking too much of God to send us another one.

Now it is time for us to realize something that Ronald Reagan knew: America does not get “saved” by any one political leader; she is saved by us—the American people.

What we need is a new leader who runs as a traditional conservative—and who will govern that way, too.

That is not too much to ask, is it?

Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier will analyze the 2012 Presidential and Congressional races on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL on www.live.Foxnews.com on Monday at a new time: 2 PM ET.

While President Obama’s ratings continue to tumble, the GOP Presidential race—in the wake of last Thursday night’s debate on Fox News/Google/YouTube—has changed. No sooner did Rick Perry turn in his third straight lackadaisical performance but Republicans and Tea Party activists renewed their extraordinary pressure on New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to run.

(Read John LeBoutillier’s take on whether that debate was a “turning point” in the GOP race.)

All this and much more will be discussed this week on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL.

This is TV’s only show that features only people who have done politics for a living—no blow-hard, know-it-all, pontificating, tired, opinion-spewing, boring Talking Head so-called journalists—or self-proclaimed “strategists”—here. CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL has no phony arguments; no interrupting and yelling, no party-ordered Talking Points and no “agendas.” Instead, we let the viewers watch what would be a typical Senior Campaign Staff meeting—either in the White House or up on Capitol Hill—from people who have actually been in those meetings.

So, just before 2 PM on Monday, go to www.live.Foxnews.com and get your computer all set and the volume just right—and enjoy this unique political show.

And read other things at www.johnlebout.com

Last night’s GOP debate may be a turning point in the 2012 Republican presidential selection process.

In front of a huge Fox News Channel and Foxnews.com audience—which is basically the GOP primary voter universe—Rick Perry had a golden opportunity to solidify his front-runner position.

But, instead, Perry fumbled the ball and came un-prepared, lazy and lackadaisical—while his main rival, one-time-front-runner Mitt Romney, has gotten his game in order and won this debate going away.

Perry had no jobs plan—even though he and his staff knew it would be the first question asked!

All night, Perry looked befuddled and repeatedly stumbled on his pre-cooked lines. His attacks on Romney fell flat—while Romney exploited the debate rule where, if your name was mentioned, you automatically got a 30-second rebuttal. So Romney cleverly did not mention Perry as he attacked him—and simultaneously explained his own suddenly-conservative positions.

The most dynamic moment of the debate came when former Senator Rick Santorum hit Perry on Perry’s policy of giving a cheaper tuition rate to illegal alien kids than to American kids. Whew! That is not popular among Republicans! And Perry sank like a stone from that point on.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of likely GOP primary voters—taken before last night’s debate—shows Perry’s one-time eleven-point lead over Mitt Romney has almost disappeared. He now leads Romney 28%-24%. The fact that his lead is dissipating may very well mean that Perry, like other out-of-nowhere candidates i.e. Donald Trump and Michele Bachmann, is also beginning to deteriorate.

Last night’s performance will only accelerate Perry’s decline.

Former US Rep. John LeBoutillier is co-host of CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL, along with co-hosts Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen, airing live every Monday at 2 PM ET on Foxnews.com.

Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier—The CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL Team—will participate on Thursday night’s Fox/Google/YouTube GOP Presidential debate coverage on Foxnews.com.

This debate is certain to feature a concerted effort by the other seven GOP candidates to knock Rick Perry off his front-runner pedestal. Look for fireworks Thursday night.

Beginning at 8:30 PM ET, go to www.live.foxnews.com and watch us—along with Dana Perino, Juan Williams and others—do a live, 30-minute pre-debate show.

Then stay with us at 9 PM ET for the actual debate; then at 10:45PM ET, we will be back to do live, post-debate analysis until 11:30 PM ET—all on www.live.foxnews.com

Also, you can see and hear John LeBoutillier on Friday morning at 6:35AM ET on IMUS IN THE MORNING on radio in your area (77WABC in the New York area) and on the Fox Business Network.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of likely GOP primary voters shows Texas Governor Rick Perry’s one-time eleven-point lead over Mitt Romney has almost disappeared—before this week’s GOP debate on Fox. He now leads Romney 28%-24%. The fact that his lead is dissipating may very well mean that Perry, like other out-of-nowhere candidates i.e. Donald Trump and Michele Bachmann, is also beginning to deteriorate—and that is happening just as the other seven presidential candidates prepare to unload on Perry.

This will be Perry’s third presidential debate, but his first on Fox. The other two—one on MSNBC and the other on CNN—had much smaller audiences than the Fox News Channel and Foxnews.com audience. And, even more importantly, the Fox audience is in great part the GOP primary electorate. So, for the first time, Rick Perry will be seen by millions of caucus-going and primary-voting Republicans.

Knowing this, you can be assured that the other seven Republicans will bring their A games on Thursday. Each, for his or her own reason, wants to knock Perry off his-front-runner pedestal. And they have all been studying the first two debates and have learned many things about the heretofore unknown Texas governor:

• He is a good debater when he can recite pre-cooked attack lines against his opponents;

But he is hopelessly lost at sea when on the defensive.

• He cannot think on his feet—a skill that is required to do well in debates;

• He quickly gets that Dan Quayle, deer-in-the-headlights look;

• His positions on hot-button issues like illegal immigration are fertile ground for further attacks on Thursday night;

• Inside the GOP—and thus the Fox audience—Perry’s policy in Texas of giving free or cheaper tuition to illegal alien students is not popular. In fact, most Republicans and conservatives are way, way to the right of Perry on this;

• Look for Bachmann, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney to be chopping away at Perry—as they all want Perry’s social conservative supporters to leave him—especially in Iowa.

• Bachmann, who is fading by the minute and is now in single digits nationally, still is trying to win the Iowa Caucuses by garnering the Huckabee voters from 2008. She had those voters all to herself until Perry entered the race. Thus her strategy Thursday must be to continue her relentless attacks on Perry for his un-social-conservative policies in Texas—the way she did last week on the Gardacil issue.

• Look for more ammo to come from Perry’s 2010 book, FED UP! You can bet that his opponents have by now mined this book—which Perry probably did not even read—and will surface other new nuggets, including his description of Social Security as a “disease.” Whew, that must make Team Obama salivate with hope that the GOP nominates Perry. Can you picture the TV ads in senior-heavy areas of Florida and Pennsylvania?

• Look for more attacks on Perry’s Crony Capitalism and Pay-to-Play method of governing in Austin; the Tea Party hates this dirty type of government—and Perry is vulnerable on it.

• Perry is also vulnerable on his secret ways of governing; it smacks of cover-ups to the Tea Party.

Conclusion: Perry is going to be under attack all night on Thursday. Any of the seven who don’t hit Perry are trying for the Veep slot on Perry’s ticket.

Look for some fireworks—and for some sound bites to emerge that will run for several days.

The GOP race may change—drastically—Thursday night.

Former US Rep. John LeBoutillier is co-host of CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL, airing live every Monday at 2 PM ET on Foxnews.com. Along with co-hosts Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen, the CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL team will appear on the Foxnews.com/Google/YouTube debate at 8:30 PM ET Thursday night giving pre and post-debate analysis. Just go to www.live.Foxnews.com at 8:30 PM Thursday.