Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier - the CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL team - will be on Foxnews.com at 8:45 PM ET tonight to cover the crucial Michigan GOP Primary as the results come in.

So go to http://live.foxnews.com/ and watch - commercial-free - as the Republican race takes a major turn tonight.

When Rupert Murdoch, the Chairman of the Board on News Corp., the parent of Fox News Channel, tweeted his support for Rick Santorum a couple of weeks ago – (yes, Mr. Murdoch is now a Twitter guy) – he wrote of the stakes for Santorum in today’s crucial Michigan primary: “Win Michigan, game over.”

That view has focused the political world on today’s contest in Michigam. Let us look ahead and examine where the GOP race goes after today:

· If Mitt Romney hangs on and wins Michigan, he of course continues on – and so does Santorum – into next week’s Super Tuesday. But even with a win in his home state, Romney has become a much-diminished political figure.

His political tin ear, verbal gaffes, flip-flops and perpetual pandering have damaged him among the crucial 40% of American voters who call themselves Independents. Among these swing voters, Romney has an almost-two-to-one negative rating.

· GOP voters – after 6 years of almost-constant campaigning – have not connected with Romney; clearly that is not going to change.

· He is – simply stated – a weak political candidate.

· But, if he hangs on tonight, he will soldier on with the GOP Establishment (shakily) still in his corner and his financial backers still writing checks to him, even though more and more of them have expressed private doubt about his viability.

· Next week is Super Tuesday. Ohio is the most crucial of the ten states that have either primaries or caucuses next week – and Santorum is ahead there, too. Plus Ron Paul does well in caucuses – and Newt Gingrich will win Georgia and make a showing perhaps in Oklahoma and Tennessee. So Romney may not have a great Tuesday nexy week either.

· But – for now – tonight is the Ball Game.

OK, what if Romney loses tonight?

As Carole King wrote and sang, “I feel the Earth Move.” Will be the prevailing sentiment inside the GOP political world.

· If Mitt Romney cannot win the state he grew up in and where his father, George Romney, was a popular three-term governor, then he will be deemed - even by many of his own supporters and donors and bundlers - as a Political Loser.

· Panic will spread throughout the Republican Establishment.

· Fear that we will not only lose to Obama in November – frankly more and more Republicans have already privately concluded that – but fear that a weak Romney or a disastrous Santorum at the top of the ticket will doom Senate and House candidates, too.

· You will hear that the GOP Establishment is begging a new candidate to jump in the race to “save the party.”

· And there will be more talk of a brokered GOP convention in Tampa to come up with a “new candidate”.

· And, along with this, an Independent Third candidate may emerge to run against both the GOP nominee and President Obama in November.


OK, what will happen today in Michigan?

Well, Romney should have won this primary going away after Santorum’s pathetic debate performance last week. But the Ford Field Fiasco, the “Anne Drives Two Cadillacs” statement, and the NASCAR double-screw-up – pic with car sponsored by Santorum and saying, “Some of my best friends own NASCAR Teams” – have made this race a virtual tie, with Santorum again having late momentum.

Thus, it will be so close – perhaps too close to know the outcome ‘til very late tonight – and we may have a disputed outcome ala Iowa and Maine.

In the end, Romney is the net loser no matter how it ends up.

Look for more surprises in the weeks ahead.

Will there be a surprise in Michigan and Arizona?

Can Mitt Romney be stopped – or is he the certain GOP nominee – despite Republican voters expressing their unhappiness with the current field of GOP candidates?

Can the conservatives coalesce behind Rick Santorun? Or did his poor debate performance in Mesa the other night doom him?

Are we accelerating toward an inevitable Third Candidate in 2012 and can that Independent Third Candidate actually win in November 2012?

All this and much more will be answered this week as Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier analyze the 2012 Presidential race on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL on http://live.foxnews.com/on Monday at 11 AM ET.

This is TV’s only show that features only people who have done politics for a living – no blow-hard, know-it-all, pontificating, tired, opinion-spewing, boring Talking Head so-called journalists – or self-proclaimed “strategists” - here. CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL has no phony arguments; no interrupting and yelling, no party-ordered Talking Points and no “agendas.” Instead, we let the viewers watch what would be a typical Senior Campaign Staff meeting – either in the White House or up on Capitol Hill – from people who have actually been in those meetings.

CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL streaming live at http://live.foxnews.com/ on Monday at 11 AM ET.So, just before 11 AM on Monday, go to http://live.foxnews.com/ and get your computer all set and the volume just right – you can also set your computer to Full-Screen size - and enjoy this unique political show.

If you cannot watch the show live – catch it on demand at http://live.foxnews.com/ until the next morning or head to http://video.foxnews.com/?playlist_id=162726 for clips of the show.

And read other things at www.johnlebout.com

The entire Republican Presidential race is – and has been for a year – a race to stop Mitt Romney and a stolid, tired, old, constipated, GOP Establishment from jamming a boring, non-conservative candidate down our collective throats for the second consecutive presidential race.

Back in 2007-2008 no one inside the GOP liked John McCain – and yet we were saddled with him. He was a lousy political candidate. He was – and still is – a prickly, un-likeable man.

Now – in 2012 – the same GOP Establishment is foisting on us another man that no one likes: Mitt Romney.

A man who has to repeatedly tell us how “severely conservative” he is.

A simple rule: if you have to proclaim your conservatism, then you are probably not a conservative.

Mitt Romney grew up in Michigan in the 1950’s when the Republican Party was the party of moderation. Conservatives were a distinct minority; moderates the majority.

His father was a classic moderate. So, too, was his mother when she ran in 1970 for the US Senate.

In 1968 Mitt’s father, Governor George Romney, ran for president and was a poor candidate on the stump. That is not to say he was a bad person; in fact, he was a good man and a smart man in business. But he had poor political candidate skills.

Mitt Romney is an atrocious presidential candidate. One of the worst candidates the GOP has ever produced.

He has one excellent skill: making and raising money. Period.

That’s it.

He cannot inspire. Or rouse a crowd. Or deliver a moving address. Or lead.

Even his attempts at humor – and singing – fall flat.

The so-called mainstream media keeps telling us he is the inevitable nominee. They tell us he “has the organization and money” to win.

Yet flawed candidates and campaigns with no money or organization like Santorum and Gingrich – and maybe even Ron Paul in Maine when they actually count all the votes - have beaten him repeatedly.

How long does it take the Republican Establishment to realize they have hitched themselves to a total loser?

Romney simply cannot close the deal with voters.

After five years of campaigning and tens of millions of dollars spent, he still basically cannot exceed 25% of the GOP vote nationally.

He never grows in popularity. In fact, the more the voters see of Romney, the less they like him.

So, where do we go from here?

Next up is Michigan, the state where Mitt grew up and where the Romney name is still golden. As of now Santorum is ahead – and is going to spend money and try to damage Mitt there.

Romney will follow his tried-and-true Modus Operandi and carpet bomb Santorum with TV ads in Michigan. It is Romney’s only was of winning anything. He cannot win on issues or on his own record – because his record is closer to Obama’s than to Reagan’s.

This will continue for a while. Newt Gingrich’s support is now steadily deteriorating – with his voters defecting to Santorum. The race will go along into the spring with more and more people finally realizing that Romney is too flawed to defeat Obama.

Does this mean Rick Santorum will be the GOP nominee?

No.

It means that we will remain deadlocked for a while – maybe even all the way to the August GOP Convention in Tampa.

The Republican Party has not – yet – found someone – anyone – to believe in.