There is genuine despair on the Right.

More and more Republicans and conservatives see President Obama’s re-election as a disaster for future of the United States—yet feel powerless to stop it unless we find a special candidate to unite the shattered Right/GOP/Tea Party Movement, win over independents and then defeat Mr. Obama.

That “special” candidate needs a unique combination of skills and temperament not seen since the days of Ronald Reagan: a strong vision of where the country ought to go combined with a personality that can sell that vision to more than 50% of the voters–plus a thick skin to be able to weather the inevitable onslaught from the virulently pro-Obama leftist so-called-Mainstream-Media which has everything they have ever believed in riding on Obama’s re-election. In their minds, Obama’s ascension to the Oval Office was an affirmation of their dreams–and his re-election will solidify and affirm that dream; his defeat shatters and rejects all they have believed in. Thus, they will do virtually anything to win the 2012 election. Losing the Senate–while a huge problem for the Left—is even acceptable to them; losing the Obama Presidency is not.

First, this Special Candidate has to have the Five Tools of Politics:

1. Fire-in-the-belly. This over-riding hunger borders on the obsessive. Virtually all successful political candidates, no matter how well they disguise it, would “walk over their mothers” to win, as Nixon White House aide Charles Colson once put it.

2. Self-discipline. The ability to rein in one's own worst instincts, habits and weaknesses.

3. Authoritative presence. Especially in the television era, candidates must project an air of gravitas and weight.

4. Raise money. All successful candidates find a way to raise enough money to win. Some, like JFK, merely asked their father to pay. Others spend years developing a network of donors; others cultivate special interests. However they do it, winning candidates always come up with “the mother's milk of politics.” Team Obama will raise $1 Billion. The Republican is going to have a tough time matching that.

5. Communicate a positive vision. Derided by President George H.W. Bush as “that vision thing,” it is this singular ability that elevated Presidents Kennedy, Reagan and Franklin Roosevelt into the political Hall of Fame. The skill to speak in a way that inspires voters is invaluable-and very rare.

For the 2012 race, the only conservative/Republican/Tea Partier who can defeat the Obama Machine will have to have all five tools–plus he will have to connect with the American people like no other candidate since Reagan.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen says that “the odds are the GOP candidate next year will not come from the current group of Romney, Huckabee, Pawlenty, Palin, Trump; it will be someone we are not yet talking about or focusing on.”

He is right: if we are to defeat Obama in 2012, we need to find that Special Candidate. And, so far, he has not appeared on the political scene.

Let’s hope he does–no later than this fall.

The Tea Party Movement is the driving force in American politics.

In every aspect of our politics‚both in campaigns, in State Houses and up on Capitol Hill—the Tea Party Movement is re-shaping the debate on debt and the role and scope of government.

This grass-roots, bottom-up movement completely dominated the 2010 GOP senatorial, congressional and gubernatorial primaries—and won almost every contested GOP race. Even long-time conservative senators were defeated in GOP conventions and primaries because, in the eyes of the Tea Party Movement, they were “too liberal” on fiscal issues.

But not every Tea Party GOP nominee won their general election races. The two most notable losers of races that a better GOP candidate would probably have won were Delaware (Christine O’Donnell) and Nevada (Sharon Angle).

With the power of the Tea Party Movement in mind, the best way to analyze the 2012 GOP presidential field is through a Tea Party prism:

• No candidate is going to be the 2012 GOP nominee unless the Tea Party Movement embraces him or her;

• Thus, we can begin to eliminate candidates who are unacceptable to the Tea Party Movement;

• Mitt Romney has gone out of his way to distance himself from Tea Partiers; his RomneyCare health bill dooms him.

• Haley Barbour was a two-decade long inside-the-Beltway lobbyist; the Tea Party Movement abhors lobbyists, insiders and those who have lived off the political system;

• Jon Huntsman—who, you ask?—can forget it. Known in Utah as a “liberal” Republican who then served as Obama’s ambassador to China cannot win the support of the Tea Party Movement.

• Newt? Too self-promoting, too many marriages, too mouthy…has no credibility.

• Donald Trump? While many agree with his China rhetoric, he is un-electable. And he cannot survive serious scrutiny. But, before that happens, he does excite Tea Partiers with his “outsider” image. (It is indeed just an image; Trump has played footsie with long-time Democrat incumbents and funded their campaigns. The Tea Party doesn’t know that—yet. But they will. And they will not embrace him.)

• Forget the other also-rans, too, like Rick Santorum and Rudy Giuliani. No one digs them at all. They are yesterday’s news.

• OK. Who can be the darling of the Tea Party Movement? (But not necessarily someone who can win the general election.)

• Today, they are focusing on Michelle Bachman, who senses that there is no one else right now who excites the Tea Party. They have loved Sarah Palin—and still might if she runs. But her recent absence from the scene has opened up the way for other. Bachman is just Palin 2.0.

• Tim Pawlenty is trying to be all things to all people: he’s trying to have one foot in the GOP Establishment camp and the other foot in the Tea Party camp. The problem is that when you try to be all things to all people, you often end up being nothing to anybody. Pawlenty is also boring—a fatal problem in the era of TV in politics.

• Governor Mitch Daniels is dithering about running. He has a Tea Party-friendly economic story to tell—but he appears to lack the fire in the belly for this 2012 race.

• Huckabee is still very much alive as a candidate—although rumors abound that he is not going to run because he’s making a ton of dough on TV—and he appeals to Evangelicals and to some Tea Partiers, but not all. He is the front-runner right now. But a weak one.

• Ron Paul is more of a libertarian than a Tea Partier—but he does have strong, devoted supporters. He is a good man. But he will not be the GOP nominee or the Tea Party candidate.

Conclusion: the Tea Party Movement will select the 2012 GOP nominee. That is not to say that candidate will win the White House. For example, Michele Bachman could be the Christine O’Donnell/Sharon Angle of the 2012 GOP presidential race: she might win the support of the Tea Party Movement , but she is un-electable in the general election because independent voters will not vote for her.

We on the Right have a big problem: we have no one running—yet—who can win both the support of the Tea Party Movement andcan then win over the crucial independent voters in the fall of 2012.

Obama can be beaten. But only if the exact right kind of candidate runs against him.

So we have to keep looking for just such a candidate.

The just-completed C-PAC annual meeting has–gain–shown us that we on the Right do not have a front-runner or even a plausible candidate to unite us as we head into the crucial 2012 presidential and congressional elections.

In fact, C-PAC demonstrated that the organized Right, which sold its soul to a faux conservative in 2000, G.W. Bush, and then supported him and an irresponsible GOP-run Congress as they partnered to bankrupt our public fisc and squander our moral and military advantage for six years, is now devoid of a true conservative who understands and believes in the principles that separate us from the squishy middle and the out-of-touch Left.

First, this C-PAC event shamed itself by inviting Donald Trump to speak. Who can take him seriously in a political context? He is not, nor has he ever been a conservative. How quickly C-PAC organizers apparently forget Trump’s support of and praise for both Bill and Hillary Clinton in all their campaigns–as well as the scores of other liberal Democrats he has financed in states where he buys their influence for his business interests. How quickly they also forget Trump’s sordid marital and sexual history.

This is someone to be listened to? Especially as he trashes the one candidate, Ron Paul, who has maintained steady and consistent principles for over thirty years?

Last Sunday we celebrated the 100th birthday of America’s greatest conservative leader, Ronald Reagan. But by Thursday we were listening to Donald Trump comment on public issues?

Do we need any more proof how far off the rails the Right has gone?

As for the other possible GOP 2012 presidential candidates, it is clear none of them connected in any emotional way with the majority of conservative activists sitting in that hotel ball room over the weekend and who came to DC desperate to find a new leader.

Instead, the candidates demonstrated their ability to pander–and their scripted anti-Obama rhetoric–but noneof them–other than Ron Paul-touched the souls of the thousands of activists who are the Army of the Right.

A note about Ron Paul: he is indeed a libertarian more than a traditional conservative. But the key to Ron is his constant adherence to his principles no matter how many times he has been defeated or his ideas rejected. Ron is the Energizer Bunny of the libertarian right–and we on the Right all respect that perseverance, as we have all been rejected, humiliated and treated with contempt over time by the smug leftists who think they are smarter than everyone else.

It was poor form of Trump to come to C-PAC and dump on Ron Paul. And it shows that Trump did not know his audience—or did not care about their respect for Congressman Paul.

What is clear is that we do not have a candidate–yet-who can unite the Right and win a majority of the crucial independent voters. Romney, Pawlenty, Huckabee and Barbour? It doesn’t look like any of them can do it. Nor can the others we have seen. They are lackluster and boring and without that special spark that could ignite a prairie fire that sweeps all across this land and then arrives in Washington determined to change the role of the federal government in our lives.

It may be that the GOP will again nominate a dud, ala McCain and Dole–and, frankly, both Bushes, who were uninspiring candidates who won because of other factors (Bush I won because Reagan was President and was handing the Oval Office off to Bush and Bush II might not really have won at all!).

If we do pick another uninspiring, inarticulate, unprincipled bore, Obama will win a second term.

But maybe–somewhere, somehow–in the next year a new candidate will emerge who can bring the passion of the Tea Party and the legacy of the Republican Party together and then give us a chance to save this country from the leftward lurch that threatens to bankrupt us all.

The national economy–again–stalls. No new jobs are created. The immigration issue–again–becomes red hot. And the health care bill–still–is unpopular. Well, we can assume that 2012 will be a watershed election year with an at least a semi-unpopular and thus vulnerable incumbent, Barack Obama, who can possibly be defeated. This is a far cry from November 2008 when he was proclaimed the New Messiah.

But–and it is a big “but”–“you can’t beat somebody with nobody.” The Republican Party has a penchant for nominating “nobodies” for President lately. Let us remind ourselves of some recent disasters:

• In 2008 the GOP nominated John McCain, perhaps the most disastrous nominee possible. He refused to attack Obama; he wouldn’t even allow McCain surrogate speakers to use Obama’s middle name–Hussein!

• McCain is/was/always will be pro-amnesty-for-illegals–so he and Obama had the same position and thus there never was a debate in the 2008 election about immigration;

• Back in 1996, when Bill Clinton was vulnerable after the 1994 Republican Revolution, the GOP nominated Bob Dole, a great man, a great American and a great US Senator–but a total disaster as a national presidential candidate; (Perot drawing 9% of the vote away from the GOP didn’t help, either);

• Even in 2000, the GOP selected G.W. Bush who barely – maybe defeated the biggest dud stiff bore political candidate ever: Al Gore. Yes, on pure candidate skills, Bush was better that Gore. But he still wasn’t exactly scintillating.

What exactly makes someone a great political candidate?
Here are my Five Tools that make a great political candidate:

1) Fire in the belly. This overriding hunger borders on the obsessive. Virtually all successful political candidates, no matter how well they disguise it, would "walk over their mothers" to win, as Nixon White House aide Charles Colson once put it.

2) Self-discipline. The ability to rein in one's own worst instincts, habits and weaknesses. Both President Clinton and Speaker Newt Gingrich ruined their legacies through a lack of personal self-discipline. The speaker couldn't keep his mouth shut; the president couldn't keep his fly shut.

3) Authoritative presence. Especially in the television era, candidates must project an air of gravitas and weight. Dan Quayle's "deer in the headlights" look undercut anything he said or did.

4) Raising money. All successful candidates find a way to raise enough money to win. Some, like JFK, merely ask their fathers to pay. Others spend years developing a network of donors; others cultivate special interests. However they do it, winning candidates always come up with "the mother's milk of politics."

5) Communicating a positive vision. Derided by President George H.W. Bush as "that vision thing," it is this singular ability that elevated presidents Kennedy, Reagan and Franklin Roosevelt into the political Hall of Fame. The skill to speak in a way that inspires voters is invaluable–and very rare. (No wonder so many campaigns today resort to "negative campaigning"; their candidates are incapable of painting with voice and words a believable picture of a better future.)

When a candidate has all five of these–and especially Numbers 3 and 5–then you really have a potential star.

All the so-far mentioned 2012 GOP candidates–Romney, Palin, Huckabee, Pawlenty, Gingrich, Daniels and Barbour–have some good points. But none of them are sincere or talented at Numbers 3 and 5.

Our fear must be that through the 2012 primaries and caucuses, the winnowing process will bring the GOP back to its boring, staid old self–and thus turn off the Tea Party fervor which is the hottest political movement in decades.

What we should be looking for in our 2012 candidate is a conservative who can sell conservatism–and also attract middle-of-the-road independents–all the while being pleasantly on the attack against the liberals, using humor and a light touch to harness the underlying fear and anxiety we are all feeling about our country’s future.

A tall order indeed.

The 2012 candidate who can do this has not yet surfaced. Let us hope he soon will.

THE FIRST 2012 PRIMARY

Long before we on the Right can worry about defeating President Obama in 2012, we have to come up with an electable—and presidential—candidate—and one who, if elected, will run the country according to traditional, conservative economic and foreign policy principles.

And the key to that task is to find a candidate who can unite all the disparate factions and groups on the Right—and also appeal to the all-important independent voters, especially the Tea Partiers who have grown disgusted with the Establishment of both political parties.

In other words, this first 2012 primary is the race to be anointed Mr. Conservative.

This is, in sum, a difficult task.

To illustrate: Yes, Sarah Palin is the champion of many on the Right. In fact, they adore her. And she is exciting and good on TV.

But more people view her negatively—a lot more. She is even more polarizing than Obama!

She can not unite the Right and the independents. Instead, she drives many voters away from what could be a winning message in 2012.

Mitt Romney? Can he be Mr. Conservative?

Can a man who ran for US Senate in Massachusetts by saying, “I don’t want to go back to Ronald Reagan” but who then campaigned at the Reagan Library in a pathetic attempt to become a Reagan disciple, truly become the heir to Reagan?

Can the man who actually implemented ObamaCare and now wants to run against it be seen as a true conservative?

No.

He cannot.

And he will not.

There is something insincere about Romney. He is indeed an “elegant snake oil salesman.”

So who is the new Mr. Conservative?

Well, we do not yet have one.

In fact, we haven’t had one for quite a while. We have had several poseurs for this position: Newt for a while when the 1994 Republican Revolution burst on the scene. He was brilliant during this period; he does come up with some innovative ideas. But his massive ego subsumed the movement which then morphed into the Gingrich Revolution and soon petered out.

Then along came G.W. Bush, campaigning as the Son of Reagan—i.e. cowboy motif, gaudy belt buckles and cowboy boots, a ranch (with no animals, by the way) instead of the Son of Bush. It took people a long time—delayed by 9/11 and Iraq and his hiding behind the courageous troops he was using as political cover—to figure out the Bushes are fraudulent conservatives who pretend to be on the Right but in reality are closer to Rockefeller Big Government Republicans. (Must I remind you of the lie of No New Taxes from Poppy Bush and the lies about massive deficit spending and “nation building” from Junior Bush?)

In 2007-2008 various other poseurs for this position of Mr. Conservative surfaced: Fred Thompson and then Mike Huckabee. But after a few weeks’ exposure they faded into weekend TV shows and little-heard radio commentaries.

By default—and the absence of a unifying Mr. Conservative—John McCain won the 2008 GOP nomination. The Right was un-enthused by McCain. Obama won. It was inevitable after the Bush Years, Katrina, the crashing financial situation and two wars.

But 2012 could be—depending on the jobs situation—the Year of the Conservative.

If it is to be a big year for our side then Mr. Conservative needs to lead the way.

So far he has not yet appeared.

Will he?

Stay tuned.

More to come—soon!

A Look at the 2012 GOP Presidential Race

Because Mitt Romney is on a pre-2012 presidential campaign book tour—and because Sarah Palin is constantly in the news—and because President Barack Obama is in self-destruct mode—let’s take a look far, far ahead at the present state of the 2012 GOP race for president. After all, 2012 is now wide-open:

Romney is a bit hot right now. He is back in the news, on TV and radio shows. He is a good-looking man and with a business background he can speak to the still-deteriorating economic situation all around us. He has learned from some of his mistakes from the 2008 race, too. He now appears more humble.

However, he also has many of the same problems from the past: he is a political chameleon who can change a position at the drop of a hat. He was an enthusiastic booster—and as governor, a signer—of Massachusetts’ own version of ObamaCare. It is now widely unpopular in the Bay State—and one of the reasons Scott Brown won that January 19 special senate election.

Health care premiums have exploded in Massachusetts since that bill was enacted—and may very well be a precursor of what will happen nationally if ObamaCare passes.

Is Romney the Republican ONE or is he, as someone recently put it, an “elegant snake oil salesman”? (See answer below.)

Sarah Palin hit a home run as a stand-up comic on Jay Leno last week. She is just plain good on TV. She is shopping an Alaskan reality show with mega-producer Mark Burnett. She has the Fox News gig and earns huge speaking fees. In sum, she is raking in the big bucks.

If she runs for president in 2012 then she has to stop most of this money-making. Or, another way to read it is that she is making this money—people look at her on TV and pay to hear her speak—precisely because she might run for president. So, if she does not run, does much of this money-making capability dry up? Or is she banking a ton of dough now and will worry about running later?

Either way she is a major player for this pre-primary period. If she says she is not running, then it is a new race altogether. But until then she dominates all the calculations, sucks up the political oxygen and complicates the race—and the fundraising—for all other candidates.

Speaking of other candidates there are the usual names: Huckabee, Pawlenty, Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels. They all bring something unique to the table. The question is: can any of them “connect” with voters and light a fire?

In late 2007 and early 2008 Huckabee caught fire, passed Romney – who never caught fire at any time in the entire race by the way—but then that fire petered out. No one else caught fire inside the GOP. So McCain won by default. He was a terrible candidate who ran a horrible race.

Today’s fire is not inside the Republican Party. It is inside the Tea Party anti-establishment movement.

This is a movement that sees the establishment of both parties plus Wall Street, Hollywood and the Big Media as corrupt, dirty and rigged. And they are!

This is what the Tea Party Movement is all about.

And the next ONE—the next Reagan—the next Mr. Conservative—has to feel this anger in his bones. No, he can’t come across as an angry person. But he has to feel this anger and this despair and translate it into all his speeches and interviews. Only then will he “connect” and catch fire with this growing band of swing voters who will elect the next president in 2012.

Mitt Romney does not connect. Nor does he really feel that anger. He may yet win—by default; he may stand out in a desultory field the way McCain did in 2008. But he will never really lead this country. You know why not? Because he doesn’t really believe in anything. He looks good but stands for nothing. And this will be his undoing.

The One we are all waiting for—the next real leader of this nation—has not yet appeared on the national stage.

Let us hope he does by 2012.