The Savior Syndrome: Desperate for Another Reagan

Ever since the heady days of Ronald Reagan, the Republican Party and Conservative Movement—and the Tea Party is now a key element of both—have been yearning for “another Reagan.”

President Reagan is remembered as a successful conservative President who had it all: he was attractive, great on TV, a natural leader and he united the country.

Even though he was a once-in-a-lifetime political candidate and a truly historic figure, many on the Right think we’ll find another Reagan just by looking!

Beginning in 1999, this “another Reagan” yearning manifested itself in the spectacle of hundreds of GOP officials rushing to Austin and begging then Governor George W. Bush to run for the White House.

In 2008 this syndrome manifested itself in former Senator/actor Fred Dalton Thompson. Sadly, Mr. Thompson proved to be a lackluster candidate—certainly not a Reagan.

Now, in 2012, after a miserable three years of recession and the Obama Administration, the Right has ping-ponged from Sarah Palin to Donald Trump to Michelle Bachman to Rick Perry and Herman Cain—all in less than six months!

And now they are putting the full-court squeeze on Governor Chris Christie, who is speaking tonight at the Reagan Library.

The governor is the victim of a political party unsure of itself and—since the death of Ronald Reagan—without a leader who speaks to our souls and best exemplifies all that is good about being both a Republican and an American.

All of this is happening because each candidate gets one moment in the conservative spotlight. If any one of them had seized the moment—the way Reagan did in 1964 when he gave what became known as The Speech on national TV on behalf of Barry Goldwater’s campaign – they would have become the new Mr. or Mrs. Conservative. From there it is an almost-automatic step to the GOP nomination. And then the White House is within sight.

But each of these candidates has flubbed their chance. And the spotlight then moves on, searching for someone to seize that opportunity.

Chris Christie is more popular as a non-candidate than he would be once he got into the race.

He might in fact wear badly over time. He is aggressive and a bit abrasive – precisely why the Right likes him from afar. But every day—through multiple news cycles—would his in-your-face style play well? Would independent voters like that style? And would Christie’s somewhat more-moderate views on some issues turn off the Right, the way Perry’s soft stance on discounted tuition for the children of illegal aliens has sent him spiraling downward in the polls?

Ronald Reagan was soft-spoken, light-at-the-right-time, tough-when-needed – but he knew how to modulate.

We do not know if Christ Christie—in office for a grand total of 22 months—has any of those skills.

The GOP—desperate to find the Next Reagantoday thinks Chris Christie is the new Savior.

Maybe they need to realize something: there will never be another Ronald Reagan. We were fortunate to have him. It is asking too much of God to send us another one.

Now it is time for us to realize something that Ronald Reagan knew: America does not get “saved” by any one political leader; she is saved by us—the American people.

What we need is a new leader who runs as a traditional conservative—and who will govern that way, too.

That is not too much to ask, is it?

Watch CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL—Live—On Monday at a New Time

Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier will analyze the 2012 Presidential and Congressional races on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL on www.live.Foxnews.com on Monday at a new time: 2 PM ET.

While President Obama’s ratings continue to tumble, the GOP Presidential race—in the wake of last Thursday night’s debate on Fox News/Google/YouTube—has changed. No sooner did Rick Perry turn in his third straight lackadaisical performance but Republicans and Tea Party activists renewed their extraordinary pressure on New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to run.

(Read John LeBoutillier’s take on whether that debate was a “turning point” in the GOP race.)

All this and much more will be discussed this week on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL.

This is TV’s only show that features only people who have done politics for a living—no blow-hard, know-it-all, pontificating, tired, opinion-spewing, boring Talking Head so-called journalists—or self-proclaimed “strategists”—here. CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL has no phony arguments; no interrupting and yelling, no party-ordered Talking Points and no “agendas.” Instead, we let the viewers watch what would be a typical Senior Campaign Staff meeting—either in the White House or up on Capitol Hill—from people who have actually been in those meetings.

So, just before 2 PM on Monday, go to www.live.Foxnews.com and get your computer all set and the volume just right—and enjoy this unique political show.

And read other things at www.johnlebout.com

GOP Debate: Romney Wins Whil Perry Lacks Fire-in-the-Belly

Last night’s GOP debate may be a turning point in the 2012 Republican presidential selection process.

In front of a huge Fox News Channel and Foxnews.com audience—which is basically the GOP primary voter universe—Rick Perry had a golden opportunity to solidify his front-runner position.

But, instead, Perry fumbled the ball and came un-prepared, lazy and lackadaisical—while his main rival, one-time-front-runner Mitt Romney, has gotten his game in order and won this debate going away.

Perry had no jobs plan—even though he and his staff knew it would be the first question asked!

All night, Perry looked befuddled and repeatedly stumbled on his pre-cooked lines. His attacks on Romney fell flat—while Romney exploited the debate rule where, if your name was mentioned, you automatically got a 30-second rebuttal. So Romney cleverly did not mention Perry as he attacked him—and simultaneously explained his own suddenly-conservative positions.

The most dynamic moment of the debate came when former Senator Rick Santorum hit Perry on Perry’s policy of giving a cheaper tuition rate to illegal alien kids than to American kids. Whew! That is not popular among Republicans! And Perry sank like a stone from that point on.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of likely GOP primary voters—taken before last night’s debate—shows Perry’s one-time eleven-point lead over Mitt Romney has almost disappeared. He now leads Romney 28%-24%. The fact that his lead is dissipating may very well mean that Perry, like other out-of-nowhere candidates i.e. Donald Trump and Michele Bachmann, is also beginning to deteriorate.

Last night’s performance will only accelerate Perry’s decline.

Former US Rep. John LeBoutillier is co-host of CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL, along with co-hosts Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen, airing live every Monday at 2 PM ET on Foxnews.com.

Watch the Campaign Confidential Team on FOX News Debate Thursday Night

Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier—The CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL Team—will participate on Thursday night’s Fox/Google/YouTube GOP Presidential debate coverage on Foxnews.com.

This debate is certain to feature a concerted effort by the other seven GOP candidates to knock Rick Perry off his front-runner pedestal. Look for fireworks Thursday night.

Beginning at 8:30 PM ET, go to www.live.foxnews.com and watch us—along with Dana Perino, Juan Williams and others—do a live, 30-minute pre-debate show.

Then stay with us at 9 PM ET for the actual debate; then at 10:45PM ET, we will be back to do live, post-debate analysis until 11:30 PM ET—all on www.live.foxnews.com

Also, you can see and hear John LeBoutillier on Friday morning at 6:35AM ET on IMUS IN THE MORNING on radio in your area (77WABC in the New York area) and on the Fox Business Network.

The Perry Fade Begins

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of likely GOP primary voters shows Texas Governor Rick Perry’s one-time eleven-point lead over Mitt Romney has almost disappearedbefore this week’s GOP debate on Fox. He now leads Romney 28%-24%. The fact that his lead is dissipating may very well mean that Perry, like other out-of-nowhere candidates i.e. Donald Trump and Michele Bachmann, is also beginning to deteriorate—and that is happening just as the other seven presidential candidates prepare to unload on Perry.

This will be Perry’s third presidential debate, but his first on Fox. The other two—one on MSNBC and the other on CNN—had much smaller audiences than the Fox News Channel and Foxnews.com audience. And, even more importantly, the Fox audience is in great part the GOP primary electorate. So, for the first time, Rick Perry will be seen by millions of caucus-going and primary-voting Republicans.

Knowing this, you can be assured that the other seven Republicans will bring their A games on Thursday. Each, for his or her own reason, wants to knock Perry off his-front-runner pedestal. And they have all been studying the first two debates and have learned many things about the heretofore unknown Texas governor:

• He is a good debater when he can recite pre-cooked attack lines against his opponents;

But he is hopelessly lost at sea when on the defensive.

• He cannot think on his feet—a skill that is required to do well in debates;

• He quickly gets that Dan Quayle, deer-in-the-headlights look;

• His positions on hot-button issues like illegal immigration are fertile ground for further attacks on Thursday night;

• Inside the GOP—and thus the Fox audience—Perry’s policy in Texas of giving free or cheaper tuition to illegal alien students is not popular. In fact, most Republicans and conservatives are way, way to the right of Perry on this;

• Look for Bachmann, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney to be chopping away at Perry—as they all want Perry’s social conservative supporters to leave him—especially in Iowa.

• Bachmann, who is fading by the minute and is now in single digits nationally, still is trying to win the Iowa Caucuses by garnering the Huckabee voters from 2008. She had those voters all to herself until Perry entered the race. Thus her strategy Thursday must be to continue her relentless attacks on Perry for his un-social-conservative policies in Texas—the way she did last week on the Gardacil issue.

• Look for more ammo to come from Perry’s 2010 book, FED UP! You can bet that his opponents have by now mined this book—which Perry probably did not even read—and will surface other new nuggets, including his description of Social Security as a “disease.” Whew, that must make Team Obama salivate with hope that the GOP nominates Perry. Can you picture the TV ads in senior-heavy areas of Florida and Pennsylvania?

• Look for more attacks on Perry’s Crony Capitalism and Pay-to-Play method of governing in Austin; the Tea Party hates this dirty type of government—and Perry is vulnerable on it.

• Perry is also vulnerable on his secret ways of governing; it smacks of cover-ups to the Tea Party.

Conclusion: Perry is going to be under attack all night on Thursday. Any of the seven who don’t hit Perry are trying for the Veep slot on Perry’s ticket.

Look for some fireworks—and for some sound bites to emerge that will run for several days.

The GOP race may change—drastically—Thursday night.

Former US Rep. John LeBoutillier is co-host of CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL, airing live every Monday at 2 PM ET on Foxnews.com. Along with co-hosts Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen, the CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL team will appear on the Foxnews.com/Google/YouTube debate at 8:30 PM ET Thursday night giving pre and post-debate analysis. Just go to www.live.Foxnews.com at 8:30 PM Thursday.

WATCH JOHN LEBOUTILLIER ON CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL - LIVE - ON MONDAY

Pat Caddell and John LeBoutillier will analyze the 2012 Presidential and Congressional races on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL on www.live.Foxnews.com on Monday at 11 AM ET. (Doug Schoen is travelling on Monday but will be back for the Thursday night GOP Presidential debate coverage on Foxnews.com)

Indeed, Thursday night Fox and Google are co-sponsoring another Republican Presidential Debate. You can watch the CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL team at 8:30 PM that night do a 30-minute pre-debate show on www.live.foxnews.com – then watch the debate with us - and then at 11 PM, after the debate ends, we will do a 30-minute post-debate analysis.

This debate is certain to feature strong attacks on front-runner Governor Rick Perry from Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum – as they all have a particular motive to knock him down in front of a huge Fox audience.

All this and much more will be discussed this week on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL.

This is TV’s only show that features only people who have done politics for a living – no blow-hard, know-it-all, pontificating, tired, opinion-spewing, boring Talking Head so-called journalists – or self-proclaimed “strategists” - here. CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL has no phony arguments; no interrupting and yelling, no party-ordered Talking Points and no “agendas.” Instead, we let the viewers watch what would be a typical Senior Campaign Staff meeting – either in the White House or up on Capitol Hill – from people who have actually been in those meetings.

So, just before 11 AM on Monday, go to www.live.Foxnews.com and get your computer all set and the volume just right – and enjoy this unique political show.

And read other things at www.johnlebout.com

2012 RACE SPIRALS DOWNWARD

The GOP debates and the President’s jobs speech have now launched the 2012 race. Here is where we are:

First the Republicans:
• The two debates showed that there are only two even remotely possible nominees – Perry and Romney – and they are both general election candidates with heavy baggage;

• Bachmann is finished – only she doesn’t know it yet; she was never going anywhere anyway; she is a lightweight who was given a break for a while because of the novelty of a conservative woman running for the GOP nomination. But she is fading – thus her Hail-Mary, forged-out of desperation charge that Gardicil inoculation shots can cause “mental retardation.”

• Ron Paul continues to hold his own universe of passionate libertarian voters; there is a ceiling to this group – and Ron can’t – so far – go above that level;

• Rick Santorum will stay through the Iowa caucuses. He is a committed social conservative who will try to chip away at Rick Perry from the social Right in Iowa. This will be a Tag-Team effort with Bachmann – and, for other, intra-Texas reasons – with Ron Paul, who really despises Perry.

• Newt will stay as long as debate organizers allow him into the debates. Why not? He does well – and has re-invigorated the Newt Brand; higher speaking fees and book deals will ensue for him;

• The Cain Mutiny: the most endearing candidate – despite having zero chance of winning – Herman Cain will also stay a while. And he will secure a high-visibility position in the campaign of the GOP nominee. Who better to do some of the attacking on President Obama?

• OK, back to Perry and Romney:

After two debates, we are beginning to get a better feel for Rick Perry. He is a very, very good candidate when on offense; he attacks well, is personable and attractive and nicely funny.

But when on defense, he has a deer-in-the-headlights look. He is lost at sea. He is poorly prepared – whether through a lousy staff or the candidate’s own laziness. There is no excuse for a presidential candidate to not be fully prepared in a nationally-broadcast TV debate. None!

Romney has looked very good in the two recent debates. It is as if the challenge of Rick Perry has woken Mitt up – at least as much as he can wake up.

He is a woefully boring candidate who inspires no one. Romney supporters are in his camp because he is the lesser of all other GOP evils. Period. No one - no one is enthusiastically for Mitt Romney. The passion in the Romney campaign is against someone else – either Perry or Obama.


The Democrats:

President Obama is imploding. His numbers deteriorate daily. His only path to re-election is by teaming up with the so-called (ha-ha) Mainstream Media and trashing the Hell out of the Republican nominee next year.

However, he is not going to face a Democratic primary opponent of any consequence.

But – and more on this in a future campaign – there is a one in five possibility that Mr. Obama pulls an LBJ next spring and announces that he will not run for re-election.

Why?

Because, as the historically first African-American POTUS, he does not then want to be fired by the American people.

Conclusion: Obama is totally beatable. The GOP race is down to two candidates. And the Third Candidate Option is very much alive – and growing more likely by the day.

THE NO-SURPRISE UPSET

Republican Bob Turner’s surprisingly-big win tonight is actually no surprise at all.

Why not?

Because this is the seat of former Representative Anthony Weiner, whose amoral, disgusting – and shameful (although not criminal) – behavior in compulsively sexting pictures of himself to woman all over the nation brought un-wanted attention to NYC’s 9th Congressional District.

Back in 1980 I ran against another liberal, Jewish Democrat – Congressman Lester Wolff – who had held the seat since I was 11 years old. He was deemed un-beatable. But he, too, had brought shame to his community by being the Congress’ Junket King – taking hundreds of trips all across the globe – and conducting personal business on these trips - at taxpayer expense in the midst of a horrible economy.

And President Jimmy Carter – like President Obama today – appeared to American Jews to be anti-Israel. Remember Carter’s UN Ambassador Andrew Young secretly meeting at the PLO’s HQ in New York City?

So there was in 1980 – and is tonight – a toxic brew that is fatal to a Democrat: 1) “Disgraceful” behavior by a Democrat officeholder that brings shame down on his constituency; 2) a deteriorating economy which sours the voters; and 3) a Democrat President who appears to be betraying Israel.

Thus – 30 years ago – Congressman John LeBoutillier – Republican of Queens.

And tonight: Congressman Bob Turner, Republican of Queens.
John LeBoutillier (R.-NY) was a US Congressman from 1981-1983. He is now co-host of CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL – along with Doug Schoen and Pat Caddell – every Monday at 11AM on Foxnews.com.

WATCH JOHN LEBOUTILLIER ON CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL - LIVE - ON MONDAY

Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier are back on the air and ready to analyze the 2012 Presidential and Congressional races on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL at http://live.Foxnews.com on Monday at 11 AM ET.

The CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL team will analyze a seriously deteriorating political and economic situation – one that is unprecedented in American history.

Not only is President Obama’s re-election now in serious jeopardy, but the Republicans, too, have emerged from the August debt ceiling negotiations weaker and more unpopular.

Is the door now opened for an Independent/Third candidate to run against the Political Establishment of both parties?

All of this will be discussed this week on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL.

This is TV’s only show that features only people who have done politics for a living – no blow-hard, know-it-all, pontificating, tired, opinion-spewing, boring Talking Head so-called journalists – or self-proclaimed “strategists” - here. CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL has no phony arguments; no interrupting, no yelling – and no talking points or agendas. Instead, we let the viewers watch what would be a typical Senior Campaign Staff meeting – either in the White House or up on Capitol Hill – from people who have actually been in those meetings.

So, just before 11 AM on Monday, go to http://live.foxnews.com/ and get your computer all set and the volume just right – and enjoy this unique political show.

And read other things at www.johnlebout.com