A DESPERATE MCCAIN


Here is a hypothetical possibility that we cannot rule out. It is predicated on two major - but very possible - ‘ifs.’

If late in August Obama is ahead in the national polls by double digits - say 52-40 - and equally ahead in the Electoral College by say 290 to 170;

And if Obama’s fund raising is just cruising along - as expected - to where he will ultimately raise $300 million to $400 million vs. McCain’s $85 million from the Treasury;

If we have that scenario - McCain trailing badly and certain to be outspent by 3-1 or 4-1 - then McCain is going to have to gamble and throw a Hail Mary pass to get himself back into the race.

Already the above scenario is taking shape:

Obama opted out of the federal election system because he knows he can raise that $300 million - or more - from his 1.5 million regular donors.
Obama is setting up shop in all 50 states with paid staffers - an unheard of development for Democrats. He is really going for a Big Win in a Big Year for the Democrats.

Obama is already airing a very effective new bio ad in 22 states - including several like Montana, North Dakota and Georgia which normally are ceded to the GOP. But clearly Obama has the money and the will to stress the McCain operation by expanding the states he will make a serious attempt to win.

MoveOn.org’s very effective ‘Baby Alex’ ad is also rocking the McCain campaign. While airing nationally on cable and in just a few states locally, this type of independent expenditure used to be the specialty of conservative groups. But not this year! Apparently there is no anti-Obama money lining up to take on the Democrats this year. McCain - who castigated the 527s in the past - will have none helping him this year. Sweet justice, eh?

So, with all of the above in force this year, McCain by the end of August may do the following:

Once the Olympics are over and Obama has made his Veep selection (the Democratic Convention is the last week of August and the GOP’s is Sept. 1-4), McCain will be a desperate candidate. His last chance to become President will be slipping away from him. He will be facing a fall campaign in which he is swamped by a better-funded candidate who is playing in states that McCain is now having trouble defending. He will see the possibility of getting blown out and of being a forgotten loser-for-all-time like Bob Dole, Mike Dukakis and George McGovern.

So he will need to do the unexpected:

He will seriously contemplate selecting New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg as his running mate.

Why?

Because once he is on the ticket Bloomberg can then write out a check for $500 million for the campaign and - BOOM - the McCain/Bloomberg ticket suddenly can outspend Obama by two-to-one!

How is that for a shocker?

Would it work?

Probably not.

Bloomberg left the GOP in a huff two years ago and the thought of the Republican Party nominating an apostate for Veep is indeed hard to believe. But it is also hard to believe that McCain is the GOP nominee. Nothing should surprise us this year. Bloomberg is even more liberal than Obama! He is pro-choice, pro-high tax and way ‘out there’ on many issues. But he is rich and will spend the money - and McCain and he are friends, too.

Will Mccain do this?

He just might if he is trailing badly in the polls and in fund raising.

And, if he did it, he’d have the money to compete. But it would seem so transparent and phony as to cause McCain to lose by an even larger margin.

Still, don’t rule this out. It is a wacky year and McCain is a total wack-job.

There is no telling what he might do.

THE RACE DEVELOPS


The new spate of Quinnipiac polls from Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania have rocked the GOP political establishment.

Here is the brief overview from Quinnipiac:

This is the first time Sen. Obama has led in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:

Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent;

Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent;

Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent.

In the three states, Obama leads McCain 10 to 23 percentage points among women, while men are too close to call. The Democrat trails among white voters in Florida and Ohio, but gets more than 90 percent of black voters in each state. He also has double-digit leads among young voters in each state. "Finally getting Sen. Hillary Clinton out of the race has been a big boost for Sen. Barack Obama. He now leads in all three of the major swing states, although his margins in Florida and Ohio are small," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Believe me: these results - especially in Florida (thought to be secure for McCain) and Ohio (very winnable for the GOP - especially with Governor Ted Strickland stating he would not accept the Veep slot from Obama) - have shaken the McCain campaign and renewed the fear that an anti-GOP, anti-Bush tsunami is rolling in this fall - and it may take not only McCain along with it but dozens of GOP House and Senate hopefuls, as well.

Now, some questions need to be raised:


What can McCain do to reverse this pro-Obama trend?

Is it more anti-GOP - or anti-McCain? Or, to put it another way, could a different GOP candidate do better than McCain?

McCain seems mired at 42% - in these state-by-state polls and in the recent ABC and Gallup national polls. Why can’t he grow above that?

There are still four and 1/2 months to go before Election Day. What events can shake up this race?


Some attempts to answer/analyze:

John McCain is - technically in the TV era - a disastrous, awful, unattractive, inarticulate, boring, mis-guided and not-too-bright candidate. Period. Plus, he doesn’t want to run the kind of campaign necessary to destroy and thus to defeat Obama. (Witness Mccain’s prohibition of even mentioning Obama’s middle name - Hussein.)

McCain as a former POW is a valuable political biography. But his conflicted personality and ‘inside-the-beltway’ contradictions (he is surrounded by lobbyists after decrying government pork) undermine what could have been a pristine personal story: Mr. POW Hero Comes to DC and Takes On the Corrupt Establishment.

Instead, the story has been turned into: Mr. Principle Becomes A Bush Lackey and A Corporate Suck-Up - Who Switches Positions More Often Than John Kerry.

McCain’s overall campaign strategist - Charlie Black - is a smart guy who will maximize all that is possible with such a weak candidate. But he does not have much to work with.

There is a built-in resistence to Obama that will still help McCain - or another GOP nominee should McCain not be nominated in September (still a possibility). Obama is at the mid-to-high 40s; a moderate, non-leftist Democrat would today be in the mid-50s and be virtually unbeatable in November.

The GOP must show the American voter that Obama is too risky - and too radical to be entrusted with the Oval Office.

The problem is that McCain is tied to Bush’s hip, is bad on TV and doesn’t connect with voters.

And McCain’s base - the so-called Mainstream Media - is already abandoning him for their real love: Obama.

Do you know what is needed? A real conservative GOP candidate to emerge and to challenge not only McCain but also the fact that the media chose our nominee for us.

The American people distrust the media.

It is too bad both nominees are creations of that media.

OBAMA SUFFERS SECOND BIGGEST BLOW


On Tuesday the Obama campaign suffered the biggest blow to their chances in November since the emergence of the Reverend Wright videotapes.

The stunning - and totally unexpected announcement - on NPR by Ohio Governor Ted Strickland that, under no circumstances, would he run/accept the Veep slot with Obama threatens Obama’s chances to garner the 270 required Electoral Votes.

On the popular show, "All Things Considered," Strickland was
asked if he was angling to become Senator Barack Obama’s vice-presidential running mate.http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=91360615 He said, "Absolutely not. If drafted I will not run, if nominated I will not accept, and if elected I will not serve."

This unexpected announcement removes the most likely Veep choice for Obama.

Strickland was crucial to Obama’s attempt to win two of the three key swing, battleground states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

McCain is way ahead in Florida and most astute political pros do not think Obama can make the Sunshine State even close in the fall.

Pennsylvania, which in recent years has gone into the Democratic column, is slightly leaning toward the Democrats again this year.

So it is Ohio - like 2004 - which may hold the key to winning in November. And for that reason yours truly has been telling everyone that Obama’s most likely Veep choice was Governor Strickland. A former US Congressman and an ordained minister, the Governor would have been an ideal choice - and the type the Democrats have not recently made.

Joe Lieberman in 2000 and John Edwards in 2004 were total failures because they brought nothing to the ticket: no state, no region and no constituency.
The Veep pick must give the Presidential nominee something he would not have had without it.

In Strickland, Obama would have had a more than even shot to win the Buckeye State, plus the Governor was for Hillary so he would help heal that divide. And his executive experience would help, too.

If the revelation of Reverend Wright on those explosive videotapes was the single biggest blow to Obama so far, this sudden announcement by Ted Strickland - while not as sexy or seemingly news-worthy - is indeed a major setback for Obama’s ability to garner those 270 Electors.

He now may have to revamp his strategy and focus on other states which are more difficult for him to win, such as North Carolina, Colorado and Virginia. Democrats do not win these states in Presidential elections; maybe this year will be different. But the Obama brain trust knows their odds are worse in these states.

So, who now goes to the top of Obama’s Veep list?

Is it Bill Richardson (supposedly has a zipper problem, and can he really deliver the Hispanic vote)? Is it some retired general (dubious, would be a huge mistake, generals are not usually adept at the skills necessary to be a candidate, risky to bet the ranch on an untested candidate), Bill Nelson of Florida (a pretty boy lightweight who probably couldn’t deliver Florida anyway so it would be a wasted pick) - or does this surprise by Strickland put Hillary back in the running?

Only time will tell.

On the GOP/McCain side, Mitt Romney is ahead in the Veep stakes - mainly to help in Michigan and to help raise money.

But there is a long, long way to go - even to the two conventions.

No decisions will be made until mid-August.

THE CLINTON PLAN: HIGH ROAD AND LOW ROAD

Hillary’s campaign is almost toast - or so the media says.

But, for the sake of argument, let us assume that sometime in the next few days or weeks Hillary concedes and then suspends her campaign. And then she announces her "unqualified" support for Obama. And then she publicly campaigns for Obama.

Here is what will be said:

"Hillary is taking the high road. She is helping unite the Democratic Party in opposition to McCain and the GOP. She is also preserving her right to run again in 2012 if Obama should lose this year. She is trying to be seen as a ‘team player’ and a ‘good loser.’ In sum, she is taking the High Road.
But here is what the truth will be:

Yes, she will look as though she is taking the high road; in reality, she will also be taking the lowest road imaginable. Here is how:

While smiling at Obama and speaking sweet sounds of support, Hillary (and Bill) - bitter and vengeful - have a team of private detectives fanned out gathering salacious dirt on Obama. The rumored tape of Michelle Obama spewing anti-white diatribes is just such an example of the Clintons’ dirty work. So is another rumor circulating in Democratic circles of Team Clinton having the dirt on Obama and a woman.

You can bet Team Clinton has a Dirty Road Plan: try to expose enough dirt on Obama - leaked through cut-outs - to derail him before the August 27th Democratic Convention. The Clintons figure if enough bad stuff comes out before then, the Super Delegates will see Obama as a certain loser in November and may still switch their votes to Hillary at the convention.

Or, if the dirt from the Low Road Plan comes in after the convention, Team Clinton will either leak it out or give it to McCain to use (if that wimpy campaign has the guts to attack Obama).

Her Low Road Goal? Have Obama lose in November - whereupon she will immediately begin her I Told You So campaign. She will remind every Democratic Party official and leader that she and Bill had told them all along that she could and would have won in the general election and that Obama would not win. This is the beginning of Hillary 2012.
This is what Team Clinton is planning.

Anyone who honestly accepts them on their word is a total fool. The Clintons are a political machine dedicated to one thing only: acquiring and then keeping political power. Period. Finis. Done. That’s All, Folks.

So, ignore their High Road words - and instead focus on the obvious Low Road they are on. There are going to be new revelations about Obama. And he may still not be the nominee.

The Clintons are masters of the Low Road.

And it may still lead them to their Promised Land.