Let us just quickly sum up what happened on Tuesday - and then we will move on to the future - of the nation, of the Republican Party and of the conservative movement:

Barack Obama won on Tuesday precisely because - as Buffalo Bills quarterback Trent Edwards said last weekend - he is “the most opposite of the guy we have in there now.”

Indeed, the exit polling confirmed what I have been writing in this space for a long time: G.W. Bush had become a millstone around GOP candidates’ necks. He - more than anything else - is why the GOP got wiped out on Tuesday.

What President Bush represented to a majority of people is a sneering, arrogant, chip-on-his-shoulder, my-way-or-the-highway face of this era’s conservatism; in fact, that also became the face of the United States around the world. And it was that face that voters rejected on Tuesday.

President Reagan was just the opposite: a cheery disposition, a funny laugh and chuckle - and a pleasant demeanor all while trying to convince - not browbeat or threaten - others to change their minds.

If we, as conservatives, are to come back to power we will have to project a totally different face and persona.

The Republican Party will have to become a party of “smart” people who can reach out to the suburbs (where we were completely wiped out) and to educated people. And at the same time we need to keep our base of committed conservatives, too.

In fact, we have to get rid of this exuberant disdain for well-educated people and for education itself. G.W. Bush and Sarah Palin have reveled in their dislike for education, for well-educated people and for reading and for acquiring knowledge.

It used to be in this country that everyone worshiped education and wished to have a great education but somewhere along the way many on the Right have transposed their hatred (well-deserved, by the way) for the Leftism taught in our colleges and universities into hatred of the actual education itself. And that is a tragic mistake. Because only reading the Bible and nothing else isn’t enough to solve this nation’s multitude of problems. In fact, we need to ask God to help us all learn more and know how to learn more in order to keep up with the ongoing and exponentially expanding base of knowledge on all topics.

So we are going to need to change the face of the conservatism; less anger, more brains.

And we need to move on from the Bush Era. Please, no talk of Jebbie in 2012!

Let us first settle on the direction we need to move - and then find new candidates who can sell that message.

For those of you who think the country is doomed, you are wrong. Any time you believe that a majority of your fellow citizens are idiots, you don’t get the majesty of our nation. Obama’s election means something to these people. It is good that they have their chance to run our country. If they do well, we all do well. And if they can’t get a handle on our problems - and if we re-make ourselves into a smart party - then we can and will come back to power.

But first we have to earn our way back.

More on all of this to come in subsequent columns.

This is going to be an ugly election for the GOP and for the conservative movement, which lost its way when it allowed the Bush Family to co-opt it back in 1999.

Frankly stated, we are going to get creamed across the board - White House, Senate and House.

Obama will earn more than 350 Electoral votes - and win 54% of the popular vote.

Tuesday’s election will be a complete and total rebuke of our party and movement - and especially of the Bush Presidency.

John McCain has run a poor campaign and is a weak candidate. He looks old and does not inspire his audiences. His selection of Sarah Palin has backfired as she has become a major distraction and detriment for the GOP ticket.

We are also going to get wiped out - for the second consecutive election (2006 being the first) - in both the House and Senate.

Almost all the Big names like Liddy Dole and Gordon Smith and maybe even Norm Coleman are going down. So, too, will about 30 GOP Congressional seats.

Ted Stevens will lose.

Mitch McConnell and Saxby Chambliss will have to sweat it out on Tuesday night. Don’t be surprised if one of them loses.

This will be the second GOP train wreck in a row.

Thus the Bush Legacy will be one of total, abject failure on every level - not the least of which is to wipe out his party and the philosophical movement which he took over in 2000. Just like his father before him, G.W. Bush has handed the keys to the White House to the Democrats.

The Republican brand is severely damaged. Tuesday’s election will feature a huge anti-Bush and anti-GOP passion - coupled with a less-then enthusiastic effort from the GOP. There will be a disproportionate turnout - more Democrats will vote and fewer Republicans will bother as they can see the handwriting on the wall.

To sum it up: Tuesday is going to be a wipe-out of the Republican Party.

And on Wednesday we begin the process of re-making the party into a smart, effective political party devoted to doing good, not to advancing one family’s political fortunes.

As the McCain-Palin ticket heads for what looks like a blow-out defeat of historic proportions - the polling now shows even Republicans defecting from the GOP ticket and thus a double-digit lead for Barack Obama and huge, unprecedented early voting numbers - here is a prediction: the biggest fireworks of this campaign are going to come after the election.

And the two sides going after each other will be John McCain and his (few remaining) supporters, especially his alter ego/surrogate son/ Chief of Staff Mark Salter - versus Sarah Palin and her husband and any GOP leaders who remain allied with her in hopes of a 2012 candidacy.

At the heart of this conflict will be The Blame Game - who will get tarred with running one of the worst campaigns in modern political history.

Will the blame attach to McCain himself - for his herky-jerky, back-and-forth, inconsistent campaign strategies?

Or will McCain and Salter be able to sell the notion that Palin was a total disaster - and that they had no clue how bad she was until long after they picked her?

JFK once said, “Success has a thousand fathers and failure is an orphan.”

In the case of this impending GOP Debacle on November 4th, several factors come into play:

• McCain will still be a Senator. He will want to resuscitate his reputation inside the Beltway. He will have to grovel to the very media types he has recently snubbed - like Time’s Joe Klein and MSNBC’s Chris Mathews - and he will throw Sarah Palin to the wolves and cast all the blame on her - and some on Bush, too.

• His private internal campaign polls now show the same thing that the NBC/WSJ poll showed two days ago: Palin has hurt the GOP ticket even more than Bush has - a remarkable achievement.

• Yes, she solidified and electrified a slice of the GOP Right, but she cost him invaluable independents, moderates and conservative Democrats. In other words, she lost McCain more votes than she brought to his ticket.

• McCain already knows he made a monumental mistake in picking her. And he must be embarrassed over this decision. But he has to soldier on through November 4th - and seem as if he is proud of her and his decision to pick her.

• NBC’s Chuck Todd was at the NBC interview yesterday in Dayton conducted by Brian Williams where McCain and Palin sat side by side - and then NBC was allowed a few minutes alone with just the Alaskan Governor. Todd felt “tension” between the two candidates - as if the Blame Game had already begun in private.

• Here is what will come out after Election Day:

• McCain/Salter will savage Palin for excessive ego, ignorance, stupidity.

• The $150,000 Nieman Marcus/Saks Fifth Avenue shopping spree will be just the tip of the Alaskan ice berg in their criticisms of Palin.

• By the way, this shopping spree story coming just 13 days before Election Day is yet another sign of total political malpractice by the McCain-Palin-GOP heirarchy.

• Can you imagine - in this devastated economy - what the average struggling housewife or working mother thinks when they read about $150,000 of clothes being lavished on Sarah Palin? How many real “hockey moms” or Walmart shoppers will spend that amount on clothes in their entire life? Talk about politically tone deaf!

• This will all figure into the inevitable savaging of Sarah Palin. Plus other still-to-be-revealed items about her behind-the-scene behavior, demands, emotions, habits, children, disloyalty and God knows what else.

• They will use the still-unresolved Troopergate and National Enquirer adultery stories against her by leaking out other things they have learned about her since they chose her for the Veep slot at the end of August.

• You can bet that McCain and Salter, the vicious destroyers that they really are, are right now compiling a long list of grievances against her - all as part of affixing the blame on her for McCain’s crushing defeat.

• They will leak tales of how ‘stupid’ they learned she was - and how ignorant of national and world affairs - which is why they could not risk allowing her to hold a full-scale press conference. ‘Inside’ stories of their disastrous prep sessions with her - for speeches and debates - will suddenly ‘find’ their way into big newspapers.

• They are still steaming over her criticism of the McCain staff’s decision to pull out of Michigan and her critique of the ‘robo calls’ - even though she recorded the calls herself!

• In McCain World, criticizing McCain and his decisions is not tolerated. Period. And those who dare to criticize are O-U-T!

• Palin has a different agenda:

• She has her eyes on the GOP Presidential nomination in 2012 - and she will have some hard right support behind her - at least until and unless she is seen as too damaged to make it.

• Sarah Barracuda will go into full attack mode on November 5th.

• She will leak out her criticisms of the way she way she was not allowed to campaign.

• She will blame the by-then-discredited McCain Senior Staff for all the mistakes of the losing campaign.

• She will appeal to the Hard Right by blasting McCain for not attacking Obama hard enough.

• She will be trying to woo Rush and Hannity for her 2012 campaign.



This post-election battle will be entertaining. But it is not the real battle to come within the GOP. That fight comes after this little entertaining diversion between Mccain and Palin is finished.

McCain will be shunned forever within the GOP. They never liked him - and after he is routed, they won’t even pay attention to him. Payback can be tough, Johnny! All those years dumping on conservatives is about to catch up to you.

And Palin will be judged by next year to have so much baggage that she will not be able to run for national office again - and instead she will be trying to score a show on Fox like Mike Huckabee did.

By 2012 we conservatives will have new candidates to choose from - and maybe a new hero.

This analysis is being written within minutes of the end of tonight’s final debate at Hofstra University, which is about a 15-minute drive from my home. It is now just after 11 PM and I am trying to do this quickly, so please excuse any mistakes. And please remember one crucial thing: this is analysis - not what I want or don’t want - but analysis of what effect this debate may or may not have on the final 19 days of this campaign:


• This was McCain’s best debate performance - and Obama’s worst.

• But Obama will still be viewed in the polls as having won this third debate - just as he “won” the first two.

• The 733 point drop on the DOW just 5 hours before this debate is yet another pro-Obama omen that makes McCain’s task that much harder.

• This economic crisis is like a Perfect Storm that is dragging Obama across the November 4th finish line.

• McCain’s advisors clearly told him to smile all night long - and he did. But it looked a little weird and goofy. And he blinked a lot, too.

• Obama looked exhausted. And he was clearly just trying to play a “prevent defense” through this last big event before the election.

• Bob Schieffer was good; he was like a good Major League umpire in that you didn’t notice him. Brokaw was just the opposite a week ago.

• McCain’s sarcastic, biting retorts turned a lot of women and independent voters off. He just cannot restrain that go-for-the-jugular instinct.

• Never in a general election debate have they had such a detailed discussion about abortion. Was watching on CNN which had ‘people meters’ hooked up to undecided Ohio voters. And the women were turned off Big Time by this abortion discussion.

• The Joe the Plumber story was good - and effective - but probably too little too late. It would have done much more for McCain if he could have used it - or some similar analogy - several weeks ago.

• The whole “redistribute wealth” argument could have been a powerful one if used properly by McCain. He should have argued for weeks that Obama is going to take - not from the rich - ‘cause the rich always have ways to avoid paying taxes - but from the middle class and give it away to the poor. That argument works. But instead McCain frittered precious weeks and millions away on Bill Ayers - and got nothing politically for it.

• All four of these debates are a half an hour too long; in the future each debate should be one hour - max.

• Don’t you watch these debates and wonder to yourself, “How is it that these two are the two finalists for the most important job in the world?”

Yesterday at a McCain-Palin rally in Waukesha, Wisconsin, a conservative voter in the crowd stood and asked Senator McCain this question:

“Many of us in this crowd are furious...we’re wondering how did we get here...how can a man like Barack Obama be on the verge of being elected President?”

Here is the answer to that question:

In 1999 and 2000 the Bush political operation seized control of the Republican Party and bought off the conservative movement. They put up George W. Bush as the new ‘savior’ - their One - the “son of Reagan” they called him - they orchestrated that spectacle of every local politician from all over the country traipsing down to Austin to “beg” Governor Bush to run for President and he was elected as the new conservative hero.

But his presidency has been anything but conservative. In fact, it has been the most incompetent, dis-honest and un-conservative administration - ever!

Just look at these few items which, if done by a Democrat, would have brought calls from us on the Right not only to impeach but to imprison for life:

• Ignored the CIA memo - “Bin Laden Determined to Attack US with Hijacked Jets”

• Pledged to get Osama Bin Laden “dead or alive” - a pledge still unfulfilled seven years later!

• Lied, distorted and cherry picked US intelligence to scare the Hell out of a nervous American people after 9/11 to justify a pre-emptive invasion of a country that had not attacked us.

• And then lied to create a link between Saddam and Bin Laden so as to justify this invasion - when the real reason was a take-over of American foreign policy by neo-cons and payback by G.W. Bush’s because Sadaam had “tried to kill my Dad!” as he told member of Congress when he lobbied them for their vote for the resolution authorizing force.

• Mis-managed every aspect of the war in Iraq.

• Drained the US Treasury of $650 Billion on that war.

• Lied to the Republican US Congress about the true cost of a new entitlement - Prescription Drug Benefit under Medicare - hiding an additional $400 billion in order to secure passage.

• Consistently ran up staggeringly huge annual deficits.

• Exerted not one drop of fiscal control over runaway federal spending - under a supposedly conservative Republican Congress!!!

• Federalized education - and passed No Child Left Behind with Teddy Kennedy - a total flop of a program - and not conservative! We do NOT believe the Federal Government should be running high school education!

• Showed true ineptitude - and a total lack of compassion - after that Compassionate Conservatism nonsense - in dealing with Hurricane Katrina.

• Blustering and boasting and bragging at every turn about how we might bomb or attack or invade any country who dared to disagree with us.

• Destroyed the good opinion of America around the globe. We have gone from the Shining City on a Hill to a despised, bullying regime.

• Expanded the scope and power of the federal government at every turn. Blew off Congress and tried to turn the Executive into a power unto himself - using ‘signing statements’ to undo legislation.

• And now this year: one massive bail-out after another - over a trillion dollars - with talk of nationalizing banks and other industries, thus causing the headline today in the Wall Street Journal today asking: “Are We Having Socialism Now?”

• And a fitting end to these eight years: a total economic meltdown - with the Federal Government seen as more at the cause of it than any other entity.

So, to my fellow conservative in Waukesha - and everywhere else - you wonder “Why are we here - with a lefty like Barack Obama on the verge of becoming President?” - and the answer is YOU! You helped create and further a total fraud of a President and a total failure of a Presidency - and that has caused the nation to choose- quite reluctantly - the Mirror Opposite of Bush: Barack Obama.

The voters can’t stand the thought of another four years like the past eight - so they will roll the dice, despite Ayers and Reverend Wright and Acorn, and try something different.

If the Bush Administration had been competent and honest, Obama would never even exist politically.

The second presidential debate between John McCain and Barack Obama, held in Nashville, ended a few minutes ago. Here are my initial thoughts - written at 11:00 PM - and I am thus a little tired - but here we go:


• Obama has won this debate - clearly.

• McCain looks older than ever before. The contrast with the young, tall, thin Obama hurts McCain.

• McCain had no new material since the first debate! He used the exact same lines! What kind of debate prep did he do for the past 11 days? How about new plans, new stories - and maybe a joke or two?

• Neither candidate is very good. They are both boring. How can Americans have any confidence that either one can lead us out of this mess?

• Obama looks more presidential - and he had some good lines about how this country has given him everything and that Russia under Putin is doing “evil things.”

• McCain’s plan to have the US Government go out and buy all the bad mortgages is so un-Republican that it is not worthy of discussion. Who gave him this turkey of an idea?

• McCain’s McNasty side came through a few times.

• Obama, while distant, was a kind and firm gentleman who will win over many Independents.

• McCain simply does not have great candidate skills. He says, “My friends” way too often. And he repeats himself, too .

• Obama did a better job on the health care-as-a-right question.

• Overall, Obama won - and McCain needed a breakthrough to turn this race around. He needed to make it happen - and he didn’t.

• McCain’s time is running out. It is becoming increasingly unlikely that he can win this election.

The presidential campaign is beginning to slip away from John McCain.

His mis-handling of the Financial Mess - coupled with a loss in the first debate and Sarah Palin’s ongoing train wreck - has put the McCain Campaign clearly behind Obama. And there are only 33 days left to reverse this ominous trend.

In a spate of new polls taken since Friday’s debate - including the crucial states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania - Obama has surged across that crucial 50% threshold while McCain is bleeding daily.

Just look at these results:

Colorado 50.0 45.0 Obama +5.0
Ohio 48.0 46.0 Obama +2.0
Florida 47.8 46.4 Obama +1.4
Pennsylvania 49.7 42.0 Obama +7.7
Virginia 48.5 46.5 Obama +2.0

Panic has taken over the McCain Campaign. They do not know what to do to reverse this downward trend.

And there may be nothing McCain can do to reverse this trend; any hope may lie in either an Obama mistake - or an outside event - neither of which is under the control now of McCain or his staff. Thus they have all packed up and moved to Sedona, Arizona to try to whip Sarah Palin into shape for her Thursday debate with Joe Biden.

Prediction on that debate: Palin will be OK - not great - but she will stick to the script pounded into her by Steve Schmidt and Rick Davis. Biden, too, will do his main job: hit McCain and praise Obama.

In the end, this Veep debate is not where the action is in this campaign. The race for Vice President never is; it is a small sideshow - unless one of the Veep candidates becomes a major problem.

Sarah Palin is on the verge of doing actual damage to the McCain ticket. Her daily interviews with Katie Couric - especially the parts where she is allowed to just talk and talk have become downright embarrassing. Governor Palin reveals that she is an un-educated, un-read, and un-travelled woman who is not - and never will be - ready to be Vice President.

And her latest line - that “Joe Sixpack” is who we want in the Vice Presidency - is idiotic. We do not want Joe Sixpack making governmental decisions. We do want someone who understands Joe Sixpack’s views, but someone who knows more than Joe and has broader experience and knowledge.

The whole Palin line from her supporters that “she is just like me” is an awful mistake. We want someone in the Oval Office who indeed listens to “me” but who knows more and has better judgement.

And the more you see of her - especially when she isn’t reading from a McCain staff-script - the worse she comes off.

Too bad McCain didn’t pick Mitt Romney as he is/was the one candidate this year who could have seemed credible on this Financial Mess.

But, in the end, it is John McCain who his hemorrhaging in the polls - especially among over-50 voters who see their retirement money shrinking by the day as this Wall Street mess spreads.

McCain’s blundering, back-and-forth strategy last week has weakened his candidacy tremendously. And his weird performance in the debate - coupled with Obama’s more reassuring presence - has clearly tilted this race toward Obama.

McCain could have won it - and he still might - but right now he has, through his own odd behavior and style blown the good opportunity he had coming out of the GOP Convention.

There are still 36 days to go. Much can and will happen. The polls may again tighten. But, as of now, McCain’s chances are slipping away.

OK. Here is the state of the race with 36 days to go until Election Day:


• Obama has - as of today - the momentum in this race. McCain’s post-convention bounce has dissipated.

• However, there can easily be one or two more radical swings in the momentum of this race. We have already seen two swings: Obama went ahead in June before his European trip and then things swung back toward Mccain from the Berlin speech right up through the Palin pick and the GOP Convention. But right now Obama has it all going in his favor.

• Obama helped himself in the first debate by appearing calm, relaxed, and capable of talking about all issues. McCain, too, made some good points, although he looked angry and refused to look at or directly address Obama, indicating a seething rage against his opponent and perhaps some sort of emotional instability.

• Polling since the debate gives the edge to Obama. Previously undecided voters - and these are often oddballs to try to understand - said Obama won the debate.

• McCain’s strange campaign antics last week - lurching from one strategy to another - may have been fueled by total panic over a recent Rasmusen poll of a solid-red state - North Carolina. On Wednesday - right as McCain was “suspending” his campaign - and how strange was that? - the new Rasmussen poll showed Obama ahead 49%-47%. This is a stunning result - and one certain to have spooked the Mccain campaign to its core.

• If McCain cannot win - and easily win - a Red state like North Carolina - he could be is dire, terrible trouble come November 4th.

• McCain’s odd behavior all week - constantly changing tactics and strategies and then “suspending” his campaign - has hurt him badly. He does not look Presidential; instead, he looks panic-stricken.

• And that ties in with his odd behavior of never looking at or addressing Obama on Friday night - which on ABC’s THIS WEEK on Sunday he denied.

• Plus, after the debate Obama went to North Carolina and Virginia to hold huge rallies; McCain went directly to DC and has basically disappeared from the stump. Odd.

• Then comes the Palin Problem: her Katie Couric interview was an unmitigated disaster - and all Couric did was turn the camera on Palin and let her talk and talk. The poor woman just fell apart. It has become all the talk in political circles - with even several GOP strategists and conservative female columnists calling for her to leave the ticket and go home to Alaska.

• She is not leaving the ticket. Instead, the pressure on the Governor is ratcheted up for Thursday’s debate. She needs to at least hold her own - and allow the Human-Gaffe Machine, Joe Biden, to make a few more flubs.

Conclusion: for over a year I have been writing in this space that John McCain is a bad candidate; he is erratic, not-too-smart, over-rated, a product of the so-called Mainstream Media - who have predictably now turned on him - and a deeply damaged man.

The more the nation sees him directly - not through the filter of the media or TV commercials - the less the people will trust him or want him to be their leader.

Here is where we are now in the Presidential race:

• The McCain-Palin post-convention “bounce” has ended. This was predictable - and inevitable as gravity always ends any bounce;

• The Palin Effect - that explosive, exuberant excitement that a new and attractive political figure brought to the political table - is wearing off.

• It seems more exposure to her through the campaign and even the Charlie Gibson ABC interview has started to erode her polling numbers; the new NYT/CBS poll shows a one-week decline in her “readiness to be Vice President”;

• Have no doubt about the powerful - if subtle - effect of the weekly headlines and stories in the National Enquirer about Sarah Palin; more people read that magazine each week than read Time and Newsweek combined; for the third week in a row the Enquirer has hammered the Governor for an alleged adulterous affair and other dysfunctional family issues; these stories do bleed into some voters’ minds;

• Obama’s campaign has gotten off their high horse and - finally - realizes that they might lose an election that was teed up for a Democrat to win this year. They have stopped the empty and lofty and useless rhetoric and gone on the attack against John McCain.

• The have started hammering McCain on his lack of economic experience;

• They have also realized that Palin can and will sink or swim on her own and they don’t need to attack her. Instead, stick to attacking McCain.

• Now comes the earth-shattering Financial Crisis: first shot out the box, what does McCain say? Forgetting that he is not yet the President, McCain tries to reassure a jittery electorate by saying, “the fundamentals of the economy are good.” Hmmmm...true or not, the public does not believe that - and thus by saying it McCain seems - again - out of touch and old and “not with it.”

• The McCain Camp soon realized their candidate’s mistake and tried to correct it. But in this age of constant news cycles, the Internet, blogs and 24-hour cable that “fundamentals are good” statement was McCain’s (bad) signature moment of the week;

• Now, here is the rub: the ending of McCain’s bounce - empirically seen in a number of polls: Zogby, Rasmussen, CNN, NYT/CBS - happened before the latest bad financial news hit. So what we need to look for now is whether or not the fear that our economy is teetering on an even bigger collapse helps or hurts either presidential candidate.

• Many suspect this fear will help Obama - as the candidate of the Out party - and hurt McCain who, hard as he may deny it, is inextricably tied to Bush;

• Neither Obama nor McCain have a clue about business or economics or markets; instead, both candidates are “government men” - those people who basically just want to be inside government all their lives in one capacity or the other.

• Neither candidate has a coherent World View - ala Ronald Reagan, who saw the interconnection between all thing: economics, the role of government, business, trade, defense and foreign policy.

• One of these candidates ought to realize the proper role of government in overseeing the economy: to be a referee who says what an industry cannot do; but not to be telling an industry what to do; this is not a narrow distinction.

• Conclusion: whatever momentum exists in this race has (slightly) switched from McCain back to Obama.

• It may very well switch again - and again in the 6 ½ weeks we have left.

• The September 26th Presidential Debate will be a possible Turning Point - one way or another.

• Plus the always-unexpected events - like this week’s still-ongoing-financial-meltdown.

The Speech just ended and my immediate reaction is that Obama is the weakest link in an otherwise fantastically smooth-running campaign operation. Sure, he gives/reads a speech well; but the speech itself says very little.

In fact, this speech had a laundry list of clever lines which attempt to make divisive issues i.e. abortion, gun control go away pfffttt...all through the magic intervention of Barack Obama.

Well, these issues are much more complex that Obama portrays them and both sides represent huge chunks of passionate Americans. The gaps between us are real - and are not going to be bridged because of Obama Hype and media fawning.

He came off as an empty suit. A nice guy. A nice smile. Not a bad guy. But not a President and not a leader either.

The media comes off as pathetic. None has the guts to criticize Obama; in fact, most of them have invested themselves in this whole Obama Dream. They don’t want to do anything to get in the way of a potential Obama Presidency.

The smartest thing Obama can do - and he did it in this speech - is to go after George W. Bush and then link McCain to him.

Let’s face it: Bush has been a total, complete and utter failure across the board. And now Obama is going to attach McCain to Bush. Thus the “he supported Bush 90% of the time.” This is going to be the heart of Obama’s campaign from now until November 4th. Soon every TV ad will feature those pictures of McCain hugging Bush.

Obama is like Chinese food: it fills you up and you feel great - for about two hours. Then it wears off and you’re hungry again. Obama is like that: it doesn’t really stick and you’re left wanting something else.

He is the weakest candidate the Democrats could have fielded this year. Yes, he may yet win - because of Bush and because McCain is an awful candidate who looks like he is 175 years old.

But something says Obama is all fluff and hype and is, as Gertrude Stein wrote of Oakland, California, “There is no there there.”

More analysis to come after McCain picks his running mate.

Barack Obama’s selection of long-time Senator Joe Biden to be his running mate was a huge political mistake.

Why?

Because Biden gives Obama almost nothing to help him in the one and only one thing they ought to be thinking about: accumulating 270 Electoral votes on November 4th.

Biden does not give them a state that they would not have already had. Thus he is like so many other recent - failed - Democrat Veep picks: Lloyd Bentsen, Geraldine Ferraro, Joe Lieberman and John Edwards. None of these selections helped their ticket gather those 270 Electoral votes - or the converse: kept their GOP opponents from getting to that magic number.

Evan Bayh would have automatically made Indiana - a traditional GOP lock - a competitive state and hurt McCain by stretching and stressing his limited campaign budget.

Mark Warner or Jim Webb would similarly vault Virginia - a longtime GOP bastion - into the undecided column.

Bill Richardson would have guaranteed New Mexico for Obama and maybe locked up Nevada and Colorado, too.

But Joe Biden’s Delaware is a solid Democratic state anyway. So - as far as the Electoral map - Biden does not do much.

The sycophants in the media - and the performance over the weekend was downright disgraceful as everyone inside the DC Beltway rushed forward to praise Biden. Where is the objectivity? Where is the balance? Where are stories about his alleged law school plagiarism as part of the 1987-1988 pattern of plagiarism? Where is a recounting of the brutal way he assaulted Judge Clarence Thomas?

No...no! Instead we are told how this life-long political blowhard and hack is the Third Coming (the Second is Obama himself). The fawning by the MSNBC Talking Heads was unbelievable!

How about some objectivity? How about the fact that, as a Catholic, he is pro-choice? Did anyone bother to mention that? No! All they said was that he is a Catholic and thus will help Obama in heavily Catholic states like Pennsylvania and Ohio. Oh, really? Do all Catholic go against Church doctrine?

Hmmmm.... How come Biden - after years of campaigning and national TV appearances - could not get even one per cent of the vote in this year’s Iowa caucuses?

How come the inside the DC Beltway media love this motor mouth so much - but the voters in Iowa didn’t buy his act one bit?

Did anyone bother to mention that?

No!

This just points out the incestuous relationship between the media and the people they cover; they trade leaks for access and puffery for access. What a disgrace they all are!

Conclusion: Biden does help flesh out the weaknesses in Obama’s (thin or nonexistent) resume. He has DC experience and foreign policy knowledge. And he will be an aggressive attack dog against Mccain and a Bush Third Term (the Obama fall campaign theme).

But he is a self-important, puffed-up liberal blow-hard who talks and talks but seems to know very little.

Obama may regret this selection, not because Biden will do badly but because someone else could have helped him get to that magic 270.

OK. The Olympics are dominating things but let us ‘run a few trial heats’ of upcoming political events:


1) Veep Choices:

Because the polls show that the race could go either way, neither McCain nor Obama needs to throw a Hail Mary desperation pass such as picking someone from the other party (Hagel or Lieberman). So they will both play it safe. Predictions: Obama will pick Indiana Senator Evan Bayh and McCain will pick former Mass. Governor Mitt Romney.

Bayh is a bore, but a good-looking, moderate safe bore who will not make mistakes. He puts normally safe-for-the-GOP Indiana in play and thus stresses McCain’s electoral map and limited campaign budget. Bayh was for the War in Iraq and chaired Hillary’s campaign in the Hoosier State so he should help bridge the gap within the Democratic Party. He also is a moderate which will take the Leftist Edge off Obama a bit.

Romney solidifies the GOP and gives McCain a real shot at stealing normally-Democratic Michigan. Romney was vetted during the primaries and improved as a candidate. He is not a great choice - some on the Right will object over his Mormonism and flip-flopping - but there are no perfect choices this year for McCain. Romney will follow the script that Steve Schmidt gives him. He is a total political chameleon; he was once against McCain and now will become his most enthusiastic supporter.

Neither Bayh or Romney will hurt their tickets and both may give them a state their ticket would not have otherwise won (Indiana for the democrats and Michigan for the GOP.)



Democratic Convention:

1) Hillary is still looking to cause trouble. She and her hubby simply cannot fathom that they lost to an upstart like Obama; they are reveling in Obama’s poor poll performances since June. They are hoping McCain wins in November. Thus their speeches in Denver - while having some pro forma praise for Obama and condemnations of Mccain - will really be the Clintons’ first campaign speeches of the 2012 presidential campaign.

And the media will love this discord!

Obama needs to get on this and prevent trouble - or else show he is a helpless incompetent who cannot even run his own party.

2) Team Obama needs to create the right atmosphere and TV image in Denver. What should that be?

At the 2000 the GOP Convention in Philadelphia Team Bush set out to “sell” Compassionate Conservatism. How? By putting dozens of little African American kids on the stage. This was not an attempt to get the black community to vote for Bush; that constituency always votes 90% for the Democrats. No, this was a reach-out to moderate suburban whites and to show that Bush wasn’t a harsh, hate-filled conservative, as the so-called MSM always portrays them/us to be.

Similarly this year the Democrats need to craft an image aimed at their weakness: middle-class and working class white voters who are resistant - so far - to Obama’s sales pitch.

So they need to aim at that audience in Denver.

They need to calm down middle-of-the-roaders who have grave doubts about Obama, his exotic background, his wife and preacher and all the Muslim stuff floating around.

He needs to assure people that he is a mainstream guy - not some whacky Ivy League Affirmative Action Egg Head who cannot relate to average people.

So they need a stage filled with those voters. They need the media to interview those voters in Denver and to hear enthusiasm for Obama. They need to stage-manage this thing - all aimed at so-called Reagan Democrats - and to convert a high percentage of them into Obama Democrats.

If he can do it, he will win in November. If, however, he fails to do this he will lose in a year that almost any other Democrat would have won.

3) The GOP Convention: McCain needs to give a better-than-expected speech. You can bet Schmidt and crew will drill this into McCain through multiple rehearsals until he gives a - for him - damn good speech.

That is all he has to do.

Because it is now becoming clear: 2008 has become a referendum on Obama when it should have been a referendum on Bush/McCain.