This analysis is being written within minutes of the end of tonight’s final debate at Hofstra University, which is about a 15-minute drive from my home. It is now just after 11 PM and I am trying to do this quickly, so please excuse any mistakes. And please remember one crucial thing: this is analysis - not what I want or don’t want - but analysis of what effect this debate may or may not have on the final 19 days of this campaign:


• This was McCain’s best debate performance - and Obama’s worst.

• But Obama will still be viewed in the polls as having won this third debate - just as he “won” the first two.

• The 733 point drop on the DOW just 5 hours before this debate is yet another pro-Obama omen that makes McCain’s task that much harder.

• This economic crisis is like a Perfect Storm that is dragging Obama across the November 4th finish line.

• McCain’s advisors clearly told him to smile all night long - and he did. But it looked a little weird and goofy. And he blinked a lot, too.

• Obama looked exhausted. And he was clearly just trying to play a “prevent defense” through this last big event before the election.

• Bob Schieffer was good; he was like a good Major League umpire in that you didn’t notice him. Brokaw was just the opposite a week ago.

• McCain’s sarcastic, biting retorts turned a lot of women and independent voters off. He just cannot restrain that go-for-the-jugular instinct.

• Never in a general election debate have they had such a detailed discussion about abortion. Was watching on CNN which had ‘people meters’ hooked up to undecided Ohio voters. And the women were turned off Big Time by this abortion discussion.

• The Joe the Plumber story was good - and effective - but probably too little too late. It would have done much more for McCain if he could have used it - or some similar analogy - several weeks ago.

• The whole “redistribute wealth” argument could have been a powerful one if used properly by McCain. He should have argued for weeks that Obama is going to take - not from the rich - ‘cause the rich always have ways to avoid paying taxes - but from the middle class and give it away to the poor. That argument works. But instead McCain frittered precious weeks and millions away on Bill Ayers - and got nothing politically for it.

• All four of these debates are a half an hour too long; in the future each debate should be one hour - max.

• Don’t you watch these debates and wonder to yourself, “How is it that these two are the two finalists for the most important job in the world?”

The second presidential debate between John McCain and Barack Obama, held in Nashville, ended a few minutes ago. Here are my initial thoughts - written at 11:00 PM - and I am thus a little tired - but here we go:


• Obama has won this debate - clearly.

• McCain looks older than ever before. The contrast with the young, tall, thin Obama hurts McCain.

• McCain had no new material since the first debate! He used the exact same lines! What kind of debate prep did he do for the past 11 days? How about new plans, new stories - and maybe a joke or two?

• Neither candidate is very good. They are both boring. How can Americans have any confidence that either one can lead us out of this mess?

• Obama looks more presidential - and he had some good lines about how this country has given him everything and that Russia under Putin is doing “evil things.”

• McCain’s plan to have the US Government go out and buy all the bad mortgages is so un-Republican that it is not worthy of discussion. Who gave him this turkey of an idea?

• McCain’s McNasty side came through a few times.

• Obama, while distant, was a kind and firm gentleman who will win over many Independents.

• McCain simply does not have great candidate skills. He says, “My friends” way too often. And he repeats himself, too .

• Obama did a better job on the health care-as-a-right question.

• Overall, Obama won - and McCain needed a breakthrough to turn this race around. He needed to make it happen - and he didn’t.

• McCain’s time is running out. It is becoming increasingly unlikely that he can win this election.

The presidential campaign is beginning to slip away from John McCain.

His mis-handling of the Financial Mess - coupled with a loss in the first debate and Sarah Palin’s ongoing train wreck - has put the McCain Campaign clearly behind Obama. And there are only 33 days left to reverse this ominous trend.

In a spate of new polls taken since Friday’s debate - including the crucial states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania - Obama has surged across that crucial 50% threshold while McCain is bleeding daily.

Just look at these results:

Colorado 50.0 45.0 Obama +5.0
Ohio 48.0 46.0 Obama +2.0
Florida 47.8 46.4 Obama +1.4
Pennsylvania 49.7 42.0 Obama +7.7
Virginia 48.5 46.5 Obama +2.0

Panic has taken over the McCain Campaign. They do not know what to do to reverse this downward trend.

And there may be nothing McCain can do to reverse this trend; any hope may lie in either an Obama mistake - or an outside event - neither of which is under the control now of McCain or his staff. Thus they have all packed up and moved to Sedona, Arizona to try to whip Sarah Palin into shape for her Thursday debate with Joe Biden.

Prediction on that debate: Palin will be OK - not great - but she will stick to the script pounded into her by Steve Schmidt and Rick Davis. Biden, too, will do his main job: hit McCain and praise Obama.

In the end, this Veep debate is not where the action is in this campaign. The race for Vice President never is; it is a small sideshow - unless one of the Veep candidates becomes a major problem.

Sarah Palin is on the verge of doing actual damage to the McCain ticket. Her daily interviews with Katie Couric - especially the parts where she is allowed to just talk and talk have become downright embarrassing. Governor Palin reveals that she is an un-educated, un-read, and un-travelled woman who is not - and never will be - ready to be Vice President.

And her latest line - that “Joe Sixpack” is who we want in the Vice Presidency - is idiotic. We do not want Joe Sixpack making governmental decisions. We do want someone who understands Joe Sixpack’s views, but someone who knows more than Joe and has broader experience and knowledge.

The whole Palin line from her supporters that “she is just like me” is an awful mistake. We want someone in the Oval Office who indeed listens to “me” but who knows more and has better judgement.

And the more you see of her - especially when she isn’t reading from a McCain staff-script - the worse she comes off.

Too bad McCain didn’t pick Mitt Romney as he is/was the one candidate this year who could have seemed credible on this Financial Mess.

But, in the end, it is John McCain who his hemorrhaging in the polls - especially among over-50 voters who see their retirement money shrinking by the day as this Wall Street mess spreads.

McCain’s blundering, back-and-forth strategy last week has weakened his candidacy tremendously. And his weird performance in the debate - coupled with Obama’s more reassuring presence - has clearly tilted this race toward Obama.

McCain could have won it - and he still might - but right now he has, through his own odd behavior and style blown the good opportunity he had coming out of the GOP Convention.

There are still 36 days to go. Much can and will happen. The polls may again tighten. But, as of now, McCain’s chances are slipping away.