THE FIRST 2012 PRIMARY

Long before we on the Right can worry about defeating President Obama in 2012, we have to come up with an electable—and presidential—candidate—and one who, if elected, will run the country according to traditional, conservative economic and foreign policy principles.

And the key to that task is to find a candidate who can unite all the disparate factions and groups on the Right—and also appeal to the all-important independent voters, especially the Tea Partiers who have grown disgusted with the Establishment of both political parties.

In other words, this first 2012 primary is the race to be anointed Mr. Conservative.

This is, in sum, a difficult task.

To illustrate: Yes, Sarah Palin is the champion of many on the Right. In fact, they adore her. And she is exciting and good on TV.

But more people view her negatively—a lot more. She is even more polarizing than Obama!

She can not unite the Right and the independents. Instead, she drives many voters away from what could be a winning message in 2012.

Mitt Romney? Can he be Mr. Conservative?

Can a man who ran for US Senate in Massachusetts by saying, “I don’t want to go back to Ronald Reagan” but who then campaigned at the Reagan Library in a pathetic attempt to become a Reagan disciple, truly become the heir to Reagan?

Can the man who actually implemented ObamaCare and now wants to run against it be seen as a true conservative?

No.

He cannot.

And he will not.

There is something insincere about Romney. He is indeed an “elegant snake oil salesman.”

So who is the new Mr. Conservative?

Well, we do not yet have one.

In fact, we haven’t had one for quite a while. We have had several poseurs for this position: Newt for a while when the 1994 Republican Revolution burst on the scene. He was brilliant during this period; he does come up with some innovative ideas. But his massive ego subsumed the movement which then morphed into the Gingrich Revolution and soon petered out.

Then along came G.W. Bush, campaigning as the Son of Reagan—i.e. cowboy motif, gaudy belt buckles and cowboy boots, a ranch (with no animals, by the way) instead of the Son of Bush. It took people a long time—delayed by 9/11 and Iraq and his hiding behind the courageous troops he was using as political cover—to figure out the Bushes are fraudulent conservatives who pretend to be on the Right but in reality are closer to Rockefeller Big Government Republicans. (Must I remind you of the lie of No New Taxes from Poppy Bush and the lies about massive deficit spending and “nation building” from Junior Bush?)

In 2007-2008 various other poseurs for this position of Mr. Conservative surfaced: Fred Thompson and then Mike Huckabee. But after a few weeks’ exposure they faded into weekend TV shows and little-heard radio commentaries.

By default—and the absence of a unifying Mr. Conservative—John McCain won the 2008 GOP nomination. The Right was un-enthused by McCain. Obama won. It was inevitable after the Bush Years, Katrina, the crashing financial situation and two wars.

But 2012 could be—depending on the jobs situation—the Year of the Conservative.

If it is to be a big year for our side then Mr. Conservative needs to lead the way.

So far he has not yet appeared.

Will he?

Stay tuned.

More to come—soon!

Is the passage of the so-called Health Care Reform really a huge political victory for President Obama and the liberal Democrats? Or is it actually the beginning of their political obituary?

Here is what will answer these questions:

1) Underlying everything is the economy, the so-called recovery and the jobs issue. Simply stated: if the economy improves and there is legitimate private-sector job creation, Obama and the Democrats will improve their current abysmal popularity ratings. And if the economy actually exploded into a high-speed recovery, Obama can then get himself re-elected in 2012. He can be viewed as a successful President as opposed to a failed flop like Jimmy Carter.

2) But—as of now—with the economy stagnant and the perception that we are floundering in an ongoing recession—this health care bill and all the dirty dealing that surrounded it only serves to accentuate the worst side of Obama, Pelosi and Reid.

3) Will the glow from Obama’s victory help the Democrats in November’s mid-term elections? Not much. The anger on the right and in the middle among independents is huge and they plan on punishing Obama and the Democrats this fall. Look for a catastrophic defeat for Democrats in the House and Senate.

4) We may see a slight short-term uptick in Obama’s poll rating later this week after the White House signing ceremony. Plus, he won’t be out every day talking–non-stop–about health care instead of jobs and the economy. This mis-connection hurt him politically. So getting back to the jobs issue–even if his Big Government solutions only hurt job creation–will help his poll ratings, too.

5) The so-called Mainstream Media is so in the tank for Obama that they will try to say that “Obama has his mojo back” and that he is “in the pantheon along with FDR, JFK etc..” This of course is all nonsense and hype. Obama has had a terrible first year – due to his own over-reaching and mis-interpretation of his election. He has lost support – especially from fiscally conservative independents–that he may not ever be able to win back.

6) But his leftist supporters who have felt down and let down over his first year finally have something to feel good about. They are crowing today.

Conclusion: 2010 will be a bad year for Democrats. 2012 is too far away to even begin to contemplate.

Coming soon in this space: the race for the key GOP 2012 primary: who will be the new Mr. Conservative?

PREDICTION: NO HEALTH CARE VOTE SUNDAY

Despite all the Obama-Pelosi-Reid propaganda about the final health care vote coming Sunday afternoon, I believe they do not have the necessary 216 votes locked up. And, if they are not absolutely certain of having those 216 votes, they will not call the vote. Pelosi cannot afford a defeat; she can stomach weeks more of this nonsense. Obama has delayed his trip until June, so perhaps they believe this may indeed drag on a while longer. So do not be surprised if they do not call a vote Sunday after all. (I am writing this at 4:20 PM Saturday afternoon.)

Also, as a life-long Republican, I am aghast that the New York State GOP has invited a Democrat incumbent, Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy, into the Republican gubernatorial race. Rick Lazio–the only so-far announced GOP candidate—has so far run a weak race; and there is little hope he can win in November. But asking a Democrat to come into our party?

What a mistake.

No wonder the New York State Republican Party is basically non-existent.

Asked if he knew John LeBoutillier, the Conservative former Congressman who now writes for Newsmax and appeared one hour ago on this show, Wallace shrugged and said, “I know the name,” which was not the right answer. He should, Imus insisted, have LeBoutillier on Fox News Sunday instead of “the same stiffs” he has every week.

“We have news makers,” said Wallace. “Not news-maxers.”

—Julie Kanfer

John LeBoutillier Gives His Fellow Harvard Alum a Bad Time

Here’s why we like John LeBoutillier: he’s a prepared, informed, and insightful guest. The reason? Absolute and total fear. He knows the I-Man will “always find the weakness” if a guest is ill-equipped.

As such, LeBoutillier, a former Congressman who now writes for Newsmax, told Imus that the House needs 216 votes to pass the health care bill, a number they’re not going to reach anytime soon.

Unlike other bills, the House has no power to change this one and must pass the same version as the Senate. “They will never call a vote unless they have the 216,” LeBoutiller surmised.

If the bill doesn’t pass, he said, “It means that the public thinks the status quo of health care is better than what the changes would be.” One of those changes—fining people who don’t want to buy health care at all—goes entirely against an Obama campaign promise.

Politically, LeBoutillier has never seen a President not only shoot himself in the foot, as Obama has done by insisting on health care reform, but “take a 50-calibur machine gun out and blow both legs off, and blow his party’s legs off.”

Much like some of his predecessors, Obama’s obsession with one single issue could cause implosion, as LeBoutillier sees it. LBJ fixated on Vietnam; Nixon obsessed over what his enemies had on him; Clinton compulsively seduced women; and George W. Bush couldn’t shake the urge to off Saddam Hussein, telling members of Congress to support the war in Iraq because, “He tried to kill my dad!”

“Every one of these Presidents had an obsession that took them down,” LeBoutillier concluded. “Obama is obsessed with health care.”

The country, on the other hand, is obsessed with jobs—with creating them, finding them, holding on to them. Obama ignored what LeBoutiller called “a reminder” of this fact, when Massachusetts sent a Republican to the Senate earlier this year. Despite his book smarts, many are questioning Obama’s common sense, and that of his administration.

“What we don’t know and won’t know for years to come is, are they allowed to walk into the Oval Office and say, ‘Mr. President, we are off track,’” LeBoutillier said, referring to Obama’s top advisors. “And does he listen to that?”

LeBoutillier also faulted Obama’s youth. “I think in your forties, you really haven’t lived much and had a lot of things happen to you,” he said. “Rejection and heartbreak teaches us things as we grow older.”

Whether Obama health care obsession becomes law or not, LeBoutiller predicted a total wipe out for the Democrats come November.

Stay tuned.

—Julie Kanfer

A Look at the 2012 GOP Presidential Race

Because Mitt Romney is on a pre-2012 presidential campaign book tour—and because Sarah Palin is constantly in the news—and because President Barack Obama is in self-destruct mode—let’s take a look far, far ahead at the present state of the 2012 GOP race for president. After all, 2012 is now wide-open:

Romney is a bit hot right now. He is back in the news, on TV and radio shows. He is a good-looking man and with a business background he can speak to the still-deteriorating economic situation all around us. He has learned from some of his mistakes from the 2008 race, too. He now appears more humble.

However, he also has many of the same problems from the past: he is a political chameleon who can change a position at the drop of a hat. He was an enthusiastic booster—and as governor, a signer—of Massachusetts’ own version of ObamaCare. It is now widely unpopular in the Bay State—and one of the reasons Scott Brown won that January 19 special senate election.

Health care premiums have exploded in Massachusetts since that bill was enacted—and may very well be a precursor of what will happen nationally if ObamaCare passes.

Is Romney the Republican ONE or is he, as someone recently put it, an “elegant snake oil salesman”? (See answer below.)

Sarah Palin hit a home run as a stand-up comic on Jay Leno last week. She is just plain good on TV. She is shopping an Alaskan reality show with mega-producer Mark Burnett. She has the Fox News gig and earns huge speaking fees. In sum, she is raking in the big bucks.

If she runs for president in 2012 then she has to stop most of this money-making. Or, another way to read it is that she is making this money—people look at her on TV and pay to hear her speak—precisely because she might run for president. So, if she does not run, does much of this money-making capability dry up? Or is she banking a ton of dough now and will worry about running later?

Either way she is a major player for this pre-primary period. If she says she is not running, then it is a new race altogether. But until then she dominates all the calculations, sucks up the political oxygen and complicates the race—and the fundraising—for all other candidates.

Speaking of other candidates there are the usual names: Huckabee, Pawlenty, Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels. They all bring something unique to the table. The question is: can any of them “connect” with voters and light a fire?

In late 2007 and early 2008 Huckabee caught fire, passed Romney – who never caught fire at any time in the entire race by the way—but then that fire petered out. No one else caught fire inside the GOP. So McCain won by default. He was a terrible candidate who ran a horrible race.

Today’s fire is not inside the Republican Party. It is inside the Tea Party anti-establishment movement.

This is a movement that sees the establishment of both parties plus Wall Street, Hollywood and the Big Media as corrupt, dirty and rigged. And they are!

This is what the Tea Party Movement is all about.

And the next ONE—the next Reagan—the next Mr. Conservative—has to feel this anger in his bones. No, he can’t come across as an angry person. But he has to feel this anger and this despair and translate it into all his speeches and interviews. Only then will he “connect” and catch fire with this growing band of swing voters who will elect the next president in 2012.

Mitt Romney does not connect. Nor does he really feel that anger. He may yet win—by default; he may stand out in a desultory field the way McCain did in 2008. But he will never really lead this country. You know why not? Because he doesn’t really believe in anything. He looks good but stands for nothing. And this will be his undoing.

The One we are all waiting for—the next real leader of this nation—has not yet appeared on the national stage.

Let us hope he does by 2012.

John LeBoutillier will on “Imus in the Morning” Thursday morning, March 11th, at 6:30 AM Eastern on ABC Radio and FOX Business News.

www.imus.com

John LeBoutillier will be on The Happy Hour on the Fox Business Channel on Monday, March 8th at 5pm.

(To all my loyal readers who have been emailing me to ask if I am still writing columns, I apologize for not writing a column for the past two weeks. I was finishing a new book. More on that in the weeks to come. But I am back writing my regular column and I look forward to hearing from all of you!)

Today’s announcement from President Obama that he is making the final push for his signature health care bill has enormous political, economic and medical ramifications:

1) It means that Obama will indeed use the Nuclear Option—a Senate Rules change that will be seen by the American people as “changing the rules in the middle of the game.” (Predicted here on November 11, 2009)

2) This will drive down Obama’s poll ratings because he will be seen as even more manipulative and shifty than the politicians he ran against in 2008. Change? Yeah, the change is that Obama is actually even a dirtier dealer than Bush, Cheney and Karl Rove were perceived to be.

3) November 2010 will now become a blood bath for the Democrats. Contrary to an earlier prediction here on January 1, 2010, the GOP will now likely win back control of the House. The Senate is less likely, but not impossible. Indeed, the Democrats have committed political suicide throughout this health care process. Have you ever seen a President and Congressional leadership push a bill that the majority of Americans oppose? And the more they push, the more the American people oppose the bill! Yet they keep on pushing! Crazy…crazy…crazy…

4) Obama is now on track to become one of the most unpopular presidents—ever.

5) Medically, if this bill passes—and it might—it will throw the entire medical/insurance world into chaos. All our premiums will go up—contrary to what Obama promises. American-trained doctors will flee the system. In sum, it will be a total disaster.

6) The same for 17% of our national economy: if this bill passes, the markets will hate it. And then the more that is learned about it the more it will hurt any chance of an economic recovery.

7) Obama seems to already have forgotten the lesson he was supposed to have learned from Scott Brown’s Massachusetts upset on January 19th. Jobs and economic recovery are the top priority of a majority of people. He said he “got” that message. But within two weeks he was back on his health care obsession. And it is an obsession.

8) LBJ was obsessed with “pinning the coonskin on the wall” in Vietnam. It sunk him. Richard Nixon was obsessed with secrecy and finding out his opponents’ secrets. That obsession sunk him. Bill Clinton was obsessed with seducing women. That ruined him. George W. Bush was obsessed with avenging Saddam Hussein’s attempted assassination of his father. That obsession will forever taint the Bushes.

9) Now we have a clear obsession of Barack Obama. And it will ruin his political career.