Due to Hurricane Irene and late August vacations, there will be no CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL this week - AUGUST 29 - or next week, because of the Labor Day holiday weekend.

However, weather-permitting, John LeBoutillier and Pat Caddell will be on at 11 AM Monday on a political panel which you can watch at http://live.foxnews.com

CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL will return Monday September 12, 2011 at 11 AM ET.

Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier will analyze the 2012 Presidential and Congressional races on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL on www.live.Foxnews.com on Monday at 11 AM ET.

With the economy again slowing, what is President Obama going to do about jobs? Was his bus trip a success or symbolic of his floundering presidency? What of the Rick Perry Roll-Out? What do his inflammatory statements about Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke say about Perry’s judgment and temperament? Is Palin going to jump into the GOP race? What of the calls for “another candidate”? Paul Ryan?

These are some of the things that will be discussed this week on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL.

This is TV’s only show that features only people who have done politics for a living – no blow-hard, know-it-all, pontificating, tired, opinion-spewing, boring Talking Head so-called journalists – or self-proclaimed “strategists” - here. CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL has no phony arguments; no interrupting and yelling. Instead, we let the viewers watch what would be a typical Senior Campaign Staff meeting – either in the White House or up on Capitol Hill – from people who have actually been in those meetings.

So, just before 11 AM on Monday, go to www.live.Foxnews.com and get your computer all set and the volume just right – and enjoy this unique political show.

And read other things at www.johnlebout.com

It is clear that President Obama can be defeated in 2012.

That – by itself – is a huge change from six months ago – or even three months ago after the Osama Bin Laden take-down. In early May all the talk was how Obama had “guaranteed his re-election” by the successful killing of the 9/11 mastermind.

But a deteriorating economy will rot out any presidency – and even Obama, with his MSM media-love-fest – is not immune to this reality.

What is a worry is the GOP’s ability to blow elections that should be won.

We may be seeing this sad phenomenon developing right before our eyes.

Texas Governor Rick Perry – long described in this space as “George W. Bush on steroids” – in already confirming that analysis. To call the actions of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve “treasonous” and “treacherous” and then to threaten him with “ugly” Texas treatment should Ben Bernacke – a GW Bush appointee, by the way – visit the Lone Star State is so over the top as not to be believed!

Behavior like that – so minor league and un-presidential – is the exact type of thing that might rescue and re-elect Barack Obama.

Remember back to the 2010 mid-term congressional elections. There were two vulnerable Democratic Senate seats: Harry Reid in Nevada and the open seat in Delaware. In both cases the GOP – with strong Tea Party primary activity – nominated bad candidates. Sharon Angle and Christine O’Donnell blew winnable races.

Back in 2004 the same thing happened in Illinois. When Republican Senator Peter Fitzgerald chose not to run for re-election, the Democrats picked a state senator – Barack Obama – while the GOP fielded a series of fatally flawed candidates who each had to drop out of the race because of sex and financial scandals. Finally, out of total desperation, the Republicans brought in Alan Keyes from Maryland to oppose Obama who won in a walkover.

In 2008 Obama faced John McCain, one of the worst candidates of all time. Yes, the crumbling economy helped Obama, too. But McCain was so inept and the GOP/conservatives so un-enthusiastic about him, that Obama easily won.

So the pattern is clear: Obama has always had a free ride in general elections.

Will that pattern hold for the last campaign of his career? Or does he go out as a failed, one-term re-incarnation of Jimmy Carter?

The answer will be found in the quality of his Republican opponent – or if there is a credible Independent/Third Party candidate.

As of today only Rick Perry or Mitt Romney can win the GOP nomination. No one else in the current field – including Michelle Bachmann, who is confined to trying to win the Religious Right vote – can win the Republican nomination.

Both Perry and Romney are deeply flawed.

Perry tries so hard to court the hard right and the Tea Party that he is already making himself unacceptable to independent and non-Tea Party voters. That could still change over time – but the fight for the Right in Iowa with Bachmann will pull Perry even harder away from the political center – and may give Romney a chance to squeeze out an Iowa victory in next year’s caucuses.

Romney’s new strategy – with Perry and Bachmann now competing for the same bloc of votes – has to be to try for a surprise win in Iowa – remember: in 2007/2008, he was leading until Mike Huckabee came out of nowhere and won by having the Religious Right united behind him. This time, those voters could be split among Bachmann – who has to win Iowa to survive as a national candidate – Perry and Santorum. That may allow Romney to win Iowa.

Then comes New Hampshire, where Romney has to win – as a neighboring former governor who has a home in the Granite State – another loss in that state would doom him. But if Romney can win both Iowa and New Hampshire, then he is the 2012 GOP nominee.

Perry knows this. He also knows he has to win somewhere - either Iowa or New Hampshire – if he is to win the GOP nomination. (All GOP presidential nominees have won one or the other; no one has won the nomination without winning one or both.)

Bachmann blocks Perry from consolidating the Right/Tea Party vote, thus allowing an unpopular so-called front-runner – Romney – to have a path to victory.

It still makes no sense. How can the originator of mandated health care be nominated by a Republican Party that loathes ObamaCare?

He shouldn’t be the nominee. But Perry looks too-Texas and Bachmann has limited appeal.

Thus we have an unclear picture – and calls for more candidates to enter the race.

That may yet happen – especially as GOP voters begin to tire of the New Guy – Perry – and yearn for someone better.

We still have light years to go.

Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier will analyze the 2012 Presidential and Congressional races on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL on www.live.Foxnews.com on Monday at 11 AM ET.

With consumer confidence crashing and the national mood darkening, is it inevitable that we have a new “political revolution” ? What of the Rick Perry announcement and the Bachmann victory in the Ames Straw Ballot? Will today’s growing political vacuum lead to an Independent/Third Candidate in 2012?

These are some of the things that will be discussed this week on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL.

This is TV’s only show that features only people who have done politics for a living – no blow-hard, know-it-all, pontificating, tired, opinion-spewing, boring Talking Head so-called journalists – or self-proclaimed “strategists” - here. CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL has no phony arguments; no interrupting and yelling. Instead, we let the viewers watch what would be a typical Senior Campaign Staff meeting – either in the White House or up on Capitol Hill.

So, just before 11 AM on Monday, go to www.live.Foxnews.com and get your computer all set and the volume just right – and enjoy this unique political show.

And read other things at www.johnlebout.com

From the Fox CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL studio, where Doug Schoen, Pat Caddell and I did live online commentary during the debate - as last night’s event ended: The clear winner - despite his heavy baggage - was Newt. He was the only one who seized his opportunities and really dominated the debate. He scored points, too, by going after Fox's Chris Wallace, not popular on the Right since attacking Michele Bachmann. Fox, by the way, made a huge error by asking questions about jobs one hour and 25 minutes into the debate! The biggest issue in the nation - and it was asked last out of nine topics!!

Romney, a weak front-runner, survived but remains a tree 90% sawed through. He is as weak a front-runner as we have ever seen.

Pawlenty needed to do better but is just genetically a bore. Bachmann hurt herself by looking petty in attacking an already-finished Pawlenty. Santorum was unfairly ignored for most of the evening. And why is Huntsman even running as a Republican?

The big picture is that the nation is in despair – worried to death over our future and disgusted over the Political Class - and the 8 GOP candidates quarreled like school kids in Ames. Only Newt – as fatally flawed as he is as a candidate – rose above the petty stuff to act presidential. The rest were unable to do it.

This does not auger well for the Republican Party’s ability to defeat President Obama.

You can watch John LeBoutillier, Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen – live – every Monday at 11 AM ET on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL at www.live.FoxNews.com

Tune in tonight at 8:45 PM ET to the CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL team - Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier - along with Rick Folbaum and Andrea Tantaros - as they analyze tonight's Ames, Iowa GOP debate.

Go to www.live.FoxNews.com a 8:45 PM ET for a pre-game analyis - then during the commercial breaks we will be on air - live - giving you "in game" thoughts. And when it is over at 11 PM ET, we will give you another 20 minutes of "post game" analysis.

Enjoy!

All on www.live.FoxNews.com

Standard & Poor’s Friday Bombshell – downgrading U.S. debt for the first time in history – is actually a judgment of the disgraceful political spectacle of the past few months.

Their AA+ rating should, in fact, be a FFF- rating aimed at both political parties.

The debt ceiling debate – and the outcome – show that neither party is yet ready to address the four drivers of hemorrhagic federal spending: 1) Medicare; 2) Social Security; 3) Medicaid; 4) Pentagon.

Until – and unless – the Republicans and the Democrats get serious about fixing and thus saving these programs so that we do not spend ourselves into oblivion, we/they deserve a Triple F Minus rating.

While the Democrats’ Sunday morning Talking Points were to link “downgrade” and “Tea Party” in every sentence, the Tea Party Movement actually deserves total praise for one crucial thing: their insistence on reducing government spending at the federal and state level has driven all governmental action since the 2010 mid-term and state elections – (actually it began in 2009 and the GOP take-overs in Virginia and New Jersey were the first Tea Party-influenced victories – and both GOP governors have led the way in reducing their government expenditures).

The only fault with the Tea Party movement is they lack any flesh on the bones of a credible “reduce government spending” rant. They do not have a coherent plan. Senators Rand Paul and Jim Demint and Congressman Paul Ryan have proposed budgets – Ryan’s actually passed the House – but they are not workable or credible enough to gather the support necessary to pass both houses and be signed by any president.

As for President Obama, his White House statement on Monday was predictably weak and mushy and cheer-leader-like – and did not rally fearful Americans into believing that a strong hand was on the rudder in DC.

He should have announced a specific plan to address our long-term debt bomb – not another ideological mish-mosh – but a Simpson-Bowles-type plan – and then called Congressional leaders back from their August vacations to at least look like they are sharing the sense of panic that we, the people, are feeling.

America has always faced up to our problems. Race relations, gender inequality, ill-advised wars – all of them have eventually been addressed by the American people through their elected representatives.

We will – either now – or during and after the 2012 election, take on the systemic causes of our debt.

There is a way out of this morass.

But only if we are led by a brutally honest and trustworthy President of the United States who tells us all what we do not want to hear.

Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier will analyze our National Political – and Economic – Crisis and the effects on the 2012 campaign on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL on www.live.Foxnews.com on Monday at 11 AM ET.

Are we careening toward a new “political revolution”? Is our economic and political system now a “rigged game”? Are we about to see an Independent/Third Candidate take on the two parties in 2012?

These are some of the things discussed each week on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL.

This is TV’s only show that features only people who have done politics for a living – no blow-hard, know-it-all, pontificating, tired, opinion-spewing, boring Talking Head so-called journalists here. CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL has no phony arguments; no interrupting and yelling. Instead, we let the viewers watch what would be a typical Senior Campaign Staff meeting – either in the White House or up on Capitol Hill.

So, just before 11 AM on Monday, go to www.live.Foxnews.com and get your computer all set and the volume just right – and enjoy this unique political show.

And read other things at www.johnlebout.com