Is the Newt campaign for real? Is the Manchester Union-Leader endorsement going to significantly change the race? What is happening on the ground in Iowa? Is Romney's support a mile wide and an inch deep?

All this - and more - are discusssed by Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier on this week's CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL:

1) http://video.foxnews.com/v/1299689012001/will-newts-immigration-stance-help-or-hurt/?playlist_id=162726

2) http://video.foxnews.com/v/1299644650001/big-picture-does-romney-go-down-the-more-voters-see-of-him/?playlist_id=162726


And read John LeBoutillier's new piece on Foxnews.com:

2012 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN
John LeBoutillier, former NY Congressman
Newt Gingrich vs. Mitt Romney -- Has It Really Come Down to This?
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/11/28/newt-gingrich-vs-mitt-romney-has-it-really-come-down-to-this/

So the Republican race – in a year when President Obama is totally beatable - has come to this: Newt Gingrich, serial philanderer, liar, hypocrite, secret Rockefeller Republican, back-stabber and megalomaniac versus Mitt Romney, the Supreme Panderer, the man-with-no-principles, an utter phony who will say anything and flip-flop at any time – and someone who was not a Reaganite until he ran for president in 2007.

How can the GOP have sunk so low?

Two candidates so flawed, so inherently fraudulent and so phony.

It is almost as if the Republican Party wanted to help Obama get re-elected.

Clearly the GOP primary voters and caucus attendees do not want Mitt Romney. After six years of running, we have seen enough. We don’t buy Mitt. Period. Even while all his flavor-of-the-month opponents have come and gone, Mitt never goes up. The others come and go – and Mitt just keeps steady with about 20% of the GOP vote. Period.

How can a party end up nominating someone who only has tepid support from a disbelieving party base? How can that party support someone with 80% of the voters wanting someone else?

As for Newt, he is not what Tea Party, grass-roots conservatives want. He is a total manipulator out just for himself. He wants to make himself gobs of money and have the aphrodisiac of power. Newt is not a conservative! He is a soft, mushy moderate Republican – just like Romney! The Manchester Union-Leader’s endorsement does not get the Real Newt at all. He is not a conservative – yet these guys believe he is. Oh what a tragic mistake!

I ought to know: I served in the House early on with Newt. He is the most egotistical, disagreeable, self-centered fraud in a House filled with similarly affected people.

Please note how virtually none of Newt’s former colleagues are supporting him in his presidential race. To know Newt is not to respect him – in any way.

So we now have the conservative Republican Party choosing between two Rockefeller liberal Republicans who flip-flop and pander on an hourly basis!

This is a nightmare with far-reaching ramifications. If we nominate Newt, Obama – and the pro-Obama so-called mainstream media - will destroy him. There is so much dirt, baggage and bad examples of greed, philandering, hypocrisy and phoniness that Newt will barely win a state. The GOP will get wiped out. Our dream of capturing the Senate may go away, too.

If we nominate Mitt, Team Obama will annihilate him, too. His past business dealings, flip-flops and his Mormonism will combine to make him look very, very bad. And the GOP base will not go to the mattresses to defend him.

What a mess we are in.

The only hope is that these two beat the heck out of each other but do not secure enough delegates to capture the nomination early. Then, maybe in the late winter or early spring a new candidate – an electable conservative with principles - can enter the race.

If either Newt or Mitt were to actually be elected President, it will not go well with a Republican Congress. They will be tugged to the right – and neither man wants to be on the right.

But that is for another time.

Right now we have a terrible dilemma on our hands: two candidates who do not fit the party they are trying to lead.

Let us hope something unexpected will happen to give us another choice.

Will Newt’s stance on illegal immigration hurt him in Iowa?

Does the Manchester Union Leader’s endorsement mean Newt can beat Mitt in the Granite State?

Why can’t Romney ever climb above 20%?

Are we accelerating toward an inevitable Third Candidate in 2012 and can that Independent Third Candidate actually win in November 2012?

All this and much more will be answered this week as Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier analyze the 2012 Presidential race on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL on http://live.foxnews.com/on Monday at 2 PM ET.

This is TV’s only show that features only people who have done politics for a living – no blow-hard, know-it-all, pontificating, tired, opinion-spewing, boring Talking Head so-called journalists – or self-proclaimed “strategists” - here. CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL has no phony arguments; no interrupting and yelling, no party-ordered Talking Points and no “agendas.” Instead, we let the viewers watch what would be a typical Senior Campaign Staff meeting – either in the White House or up on Capitol Hill – from people who have actually been in those meetings.

CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL streaming live at http://live.foxnews.com/ on Monday at 2 PM ET.So, just before 2 PM on Monday, go to http://live.foxnews.com/ and get your computer all set and the volume just right – you can also set your computer to Full-Screen size - and enjoy this unique political show.

If you cannot watch the show live – catch it on demand at http://live.foxnews.com/ until the next morning or head to http://video.foxnews.com/?playlist_id=162726 for clips of the show.

And read other things at www.johnlebout.com

Does it matter if the Congressional Super Committee fails?

Can Newt withstand the revelations about his flip-flops and multi-million dollar sell-outs?

Are we accelerating toward an inevitable Third Candidate in 2012 and can that Independent Third Candidate actually win in November 2012?

All this and much more will be answered this week as Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier analyze the 2012 Presidential race on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL on http://live.foxnews.com/on Monday at 2 PM ET.

This is TV’s only show that features only people who have done politics for a living – no blow-hard, know-it-all, pontificating, tired, opinion-spewing, boring Talking Head so-called journalists – or self-proclaimed “strategists” - here. CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL has no phony arguments; no interrupting and yelling, no party-ordered Talking Points and no “agendas.” Instead, we let the viewers watch what would be a typical Senior Campaign Staff meeting – either in the White House or up on Capitol Hill – from people who have actually been in those meetings.

CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL streaming live at http://live.foxnews.com/ on Monday at 2 PM ET.So, just before 2 PM on Monday, go to http://live.foxnews.com/ and get your computer all set and the volume just right – you can also set your computer to Full-Screen size - and enjoy this unique political show.

If you cannot watch the show live – catch it on demand at http://live.foxnews.com/ until the next morningor head to http://video.foxnews.com/?playlist_id=162726 for clips of the show.

And read other things at www.johnlebout.com

Here is where the 2012 GOP presidential race is now:

It is a three-way race – Romney-Cain-Newt;

All the other candidates are finished – done – over – forget them – don’t waste time even talking about them as they cannot win the nomination;

In fact, it isn’t even a sure shot that the Big Three can or will win the nomination either;

OK, let’s look at this race in some more depth:

1) Romney cannot grow his support. We have seen his act for six years; his supporters are there for him and no one else is buying what Mitt is selling. Ask yourselves this question: how can a man who gets about 20% of GOP voters to support him – against a very, very weak field - and cannot get any more - ever be the nominee of that political party?

2) The GOP is a southern/Bible Belt-based party; Romney is a northerner.

3) The GOP is heavily evangelical Christian; Romney is a Mormon. And many Evangelicals believe Mormonism is a “cult.”

4) Oh, yes, one other thing when it comes to Mormonism: in a Gallup survey last June, 22% of American voters said they would “never” vote for a Mormon. So, does the GOP want to begin a general election campaign against a very beatable President Obama with a candidate who has one out of five voters off the table before the campaign even begins?

5) The Tea Party now dominates the GOP; Romney and the Tea Party have never seen eye to eye.

6) So, with all that baggage, pundits still somehow proclaim him the front-runner? Why exactly?

7) Let’s face it: he doesn’t fit the Republican Party of 2012!

8) The Cain Fade has begun – especially among female voters. The multiple sexual harassment claims have bled female support away from Cain and he is now utterly un-electable in a general election. In fact, a Cain-Obama election would give Obama the opportunity to win the biggest landslide in American history. Only conservative men would vote for Cain; all the rest – women – even GOP women - independents and Democrats would – even if they have to hold their nose – vote for another four years of Obama.

9) Newt – simply on the basis of the debates and the Perry and Cain self-destructions – is now the latest anti-Romney possibility.

10) However, Newt, too, is un-electable in a general election – although not quite as much so as Cain.

11) Newt’s three marriages, his decades-long hypocrisy – the latest being the $300,000 he got paid by Fannie Mae and then lied about – and his overall lack of self-discipline make him a terrible candidate, too.

So where does that leave the race?

With under two months until Iowa on January 3rd, it is conceivable that the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee is not yet in the race.

Yes, it is possible that Romney – as he did in 2008 – falters coming out of the gate. Cain and Newt stumble along. And no one captures the hearts – or votes – of enough GOP primary voters to take off.

At that point – late winter/early spring – is it possible some new candidates come into the race?

Yes.

Why?

Because 2012 is winnable. Obama can be defeated.

Just not by the current crop of second-raters running for the GOP nomination.

Can Newt win the GOP nomination?

Or is the GOP field headed for a total implosion?

Has Cain begun to fade?

Is the Congressional Super Committee heading for a crashing failure?

Are we accelerating toward an inevitable Third Candidate in 2012 and can that Independent Third Candidate actually win in November 2012?

All this and much more will be answered this week as Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier analyze the 2012 Presidential race on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL on http://live.foxnews.com/on Monday at 2 PM ET.

This is TV’s only show that features only people who have done politics for a living – no blow-hard, know-it-all, pontificating, tired, opinion-spewing, boring Talking Head so-called journalists – or self-proclaimed “strategists” - here. CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL has no phony arguments; no interrupting and yelling, no party-ordered Talking Points and no “agendas.” Instead, we let the viewers watch what would be a typical Senior Campaign Staff meeting – either in the White House or up on Capitol Hill – from people who have actually been in those meetings.

CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL streaming live at http://live.foxnews.com/ on Monday at 2 PM ET.So, just before 2 PM on Monday, go to http://live.foxnews.com/ and get your computer all set and the volume just right – you can also set your computer to Full-Screen size - and enjoy this unique political show.

If you cannot watch the show live – catch it on demand at http://live.foxnews.com/ until the next morningor head to http://video.foxnews.com/?playlist_id=162726 for clips of the show.

And read other things at www.johnlebout.com

John LeBoutillier will be on IMUS IN THE MORNING tomorrow - Tuesday November 8, 2011 - at 6:38 AM on the Fox Business Network and hundreds of radio stations across the nation - including 77WABC in NYC.

What a shame – on all of us.

Herman Cain’s behavior has been – and remains – shameful.

When three women all allege the same thing at the same place and the same time - where there’s smoke there’s fire - there is certainly enough here to make us all back off our support for a fellow so-called-conservative and demand that he clear things up before we accept him as our leader.

But instead the Professional Right – talk show hosts and columnists – who have so twisted themselves into pretzels that they have forgotten what being a conservative means – has rallied to defend a man none of them even know!

Has Herman Cain been in the trenches with us over the past decades fighting for conservative causes?

No.

Has Herman Cain fought for even one cause?

No.

Has Herman Cain ever even supported another conservative?

No.

Has Herman Cain run as a real conservative in this campaign?

No.

He has been pro-choice on abortion.
(Until he was prompted to change his language.)

He has been in favor of trading all the terrorists at Gitmo for one hypothetical American hostage.

(Until prompted to change his tune.)

He claimed he wanted to prevent China from acquiring nuclear weapons.

(Until he was informed that China has had nukes for 50 years; then Mr. Cain did his usual shuck-and-jive to try to talk himself out of his self-created trouble.)

What is happening here is the self-destruction of the Right, the Tea Party and the Republican Party – all through a justifiable loathing of the Left and the so-called Mainstream Media.

Many conservatives figure it this way: “If the Lefties are going after Herman, then he must be a good guy.”

In fact, it is Cain’s own abhorrent personal behavior towards women that has gotten him in trouble. Not just these three women – but an Iowan conservative talk radio host has now come forward to tell of Cain’s over-the-top behavior towards two women at his radio station when Cain came in for an interview.

It is shameful that so many on the Right ignore these allegations. Would we ignore them if they were the very same allegations made against Barack Obama?

Why should all of us on the Right suddenly have to defend this crummy behavior – the way Democrats all defended Bill Clinton’s disgusting behavior?

Shouldn’t we Republicans want our candidates to be better than the amoral Democrats?

Don’t we see ourselves as better than the Democrats? If conservatives and Republicans allow ourselves to be as low as Democrats, then the country is doomed.

Conclusion: Herman Cain needs to answer every single charge. Period. Clear it all up. If there is nothing to it, then he can resume regular campaigning. If not, we on the Right need to know so we can resume our search for a clean, true conservative to lead this nation back from the brink of disaster.

But for him to drag down the GOP and the Right and the Tea Party this way is selfish and disgusting. Oh, by the way, the Tea Party hates lobbyists and sees them as part of the inside-the-DC-Beltway corruption; guess who we now learn was an inside-the-DC-Beltway lobbyist for more than two years? Herman Cain.

Oh…the Tea Party also hates career politicians. Guess who we now learn has run for President before (in 2000) and for the US Senate (in 2004)? Herman Cain.

Maybe there is a lesson here for everyone: like in romance, go slowly before you commit to someone.

Has Herman Cain weathered the storm – or is his fall from grace now inevitable? And if Cain falls, who becomes the newest anti-Romney candidate heading into the primaries?

Has our economy begun to turn a corner – and thus Obama’s re-election chances, too?

Is the Congressional Super Committee heading for a crashing failure?

Are we accelerating toward an inevitable Third Candidate in 2012 and can that Independent Third Candidate actually win in November 2012?

All this and much more will be answered this week as Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier analyze the 2012 Presidential race on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL on www.live.Foxnews.com on Monday at 2 PM ET.

This is TV’s only show that features only people who have done politics for a living – no blow-hard, know-it-all, pontificating, tired, opinion-spewing, boring Talking Head so-called journalists – or self-proclaimed “strategists” - here. CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL has no phony arguments; no interrupting and yelling, no party-ordered Talking Points and no “agendas.” Instead, we let the viewers watch what would be a typical Senior Campaign Staff meeting – either in the White House or up on Capitol Hill – from people who have actually been in those meetings.

So, just before 2 PM on Monday, go to http://live.foxnews.com/ and get your computer all set and the volume just right – you can also set your computer to Full-Screen size - and enjoy this unique political show. Or, if that does not work for you, go to http://www.foxnews.com/ and then click “video” and you should be connected. (Several people report that they have a lot of trouble getting Foxnews.com to work. I apologize for this – in advance – and I will email the links to the show to you the next day.)

And read other things at www.johnlebout.com