Has Newt peaked? Has his inevitable decline already begun?

Are all these endorsements – Nikki Haley, Des Moines Register and Bob Dole - going to help Mitt Romney?

Is Ron Paul going to score his first-ever primary or caucus victory on January 3rd in Iowa?

Are we accelerating toward an inevitable Third Candidate in 2012 and can that Independent Third Candidate actually win in November 2012?

All this and much more will be answered this week as Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier analyze the 2012 Presidential race on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL on http://live.foxnews.com/on Monday at 2 PM ET.

This is TV’s only show that features only people who have done politics for a living – no blow-hard, know-it-all, pontificating, tired, opinion-spewing, boring Talking Head so-called journalists – or self-proclaimed “strategists” - here. CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL has no phony arguments; no interrupting and yelling, no party-ordered Talking Points and no “agendas.” Instead, we let the viewers watch what would be a typical Senior Campaign Staff meeting – either in the White House or up on Capitol Hill – from people who have actually been in those meetings.

CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL streaming live at http://live.foxnews.com/ on Monday at 2 PM ET.So, just before 2 PM on Monday, go to http://live.foxnews.com/ and get your computer all set and the volume just right – you can also set your computer to Full-Screen size - and enjoy this unique political show.

If you cannot watch the show live – catch it on demand at http://live.foxnews.com/ until the next morning or head to http://video.foxnews.com/?playlist_id=162726 for clips of the show.

And read other things at www.johnlebout.com

Tonight - Thursday, December 15th - Fox News Channel hosts the Final GOP Debate before the January 3rd Iowa Caucuses.

Watch the debate online at http://live.foxnews.com.

We’ll have interactive tools where you can weigh in. Rick Folbaum hosts our pre and post debate coverage and we’ll get analysis from the CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL team ofPat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier.

The online coverage kicks off at 8:30 PM ET and the debate starts at 9pm ET.

Stay with us through the biggest evening of the campaign.

John LeBoutillier will be a guest on Imus in the Morning tomorrow morning - December 14th - at 6:35 AM ET. On 77 WABC Radio in New York, on radio all across the nation, and on the Fox Business Network.

Please listen and watch!

(This is a quick – almost instant – analysis of the ABC-sponsored GOP Presidential Debate at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa- written just minutes after the debate concluded. )

The second-to-last debate before the January 3 Iowa Caucuses has just ended and here are some thoughts:

· Diane Sawyer is a disaster to look at and listen to as a debate moderator. She speaks in some sing-song voice, tilts her head, gyrates around…she is a total disaster.

· Her colleague, George Stephanoupoulos, was a Clinton Campaign flack and hack – and has no credibility to be asking Republicans questions about public policy.

· No wonder ABC has become irrelevant in the news business.

· OK, to the actual debate:

· For the first 45 minutes, believe it or not, Michele Bachmann had the best answers. Her “Newt Romney” refrain was clever, funny, intriguing – and pointed out how similar these two Rockefeller Republican flip-floppers really are on a range of issues.

· Mitt Romney pulled a “Pawlenty” when he was asked to state the main differences between him and Gingrich. His answer? Four things – the first being the creation of a moon colony – and another being a difference in capital gains tax cuts thresholds.

· Are you kidding me? This was the moment for Romney to tell conservative primary voters why he is their man – and what is wrong with Newt. And the first thing he mentions is a Moon Colony?

· The second hour saw Newt Gingrich defend his Palestinian statement on the Jewish Channel. He did well on this, as he did on defending his record of earning a ton of money as a private citizen.

· Romney refused to go after Newt on this – yet his surrogates are doing it out on the stump. Why doesn’t Mitt do it himself?

· The media will make a big deal out of Romney’s attempt to wager $10,000 with Rick Perry. The “ten thousand dollar” moment will reinforce the image of Romney as a rich guy who is out-of-touch with the caucus-goers.

· Thursday night on Fox – and Foxnews.com – there will be the final Iowa debate. It will be Romney’s last opportunity to take the race away from Newt. Will he seize it? Or will he pull another “Pawlenty” – named for Tim Pawlenty when it was all teed up for him in the first debate in New Hampshire last spring – and he refused to go after Mitt Romney on health care.

· Conclusion:

· Santorum, Perry and Ron Paul – as usual – got the shaft in allocation of air time. How is this fair? Shouldn’t all the candidates get the same amount of time?

· Bachmann got more than usual – and this was by far her best performance of the campaign. But it was too little, too late for her. She should have done this well three months ago.

· Newt – again – did very well. He came out totally unscathed, which was his goal as the new front-runner.

· Mitt – as usual – was steady and professional and prepared. And boring. He didn’t win any voters over to him.

· Thursday night is his last chance to change the dynamic of this race. If he doesn’t do it on Thursday, he will lose Iowa – and the whole race can then tumble out of his control. Watch it on Fox News Channel – and Foxnews.com – 9 PM Eastern Time.

Former Congressman John LeBoutillier is co-host of CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL, which airs each Monday at 2 PM on Foxnews.com

Six weeks from Tuesday – January 10, 2012 – is the New Hampshire Primary. That day – and night – will be the end of Mitt Romney’s six-year quest to become President of the United States.

Here is how things are going to go between today and January 10th – and thereafter:

· The GOP primary voter hates the GOP Establishment; that is why the Tea Party was born;

· These voters do not like Mitt Romney. He has never connected with them. His disastrous, churlish Brett Baier Fox News Channel interview last Tuesday accelerated his decline and thus the inevitable end of his campaign;

· The Tea Party and Christian Evangelical voter – and they are two distinct groups – have never liked Mitt;

· These voters are now the heart of the GOP;

· They are coalescing behind Newt Gingrich - for now;

· Cain’s remaining voters will now go to Newt as the best vehicle to rebel against the GOP Establishment;

· So here is the chronology: Newt Gingrich will solidify in the polls over the next month as the Anti-Romney/anti-GOP Establishment vessel– even as he says things filled with hubris and arrogance that make people begin to wonder if he is really the right man to be the GOP nominee;

· The New Hampshire Union Leader will – as they did four years ago when they tore Romney apart after endorsing McCain – begin using their news pages to excoriate Romney’s record in government and business; his polls numbers in New Hampshire will thus continue to decline;

· Newt will win the Iowa caucuses on January 3rd; Romney might come in third or even fourth;

· Immediately thereafter the bottom will drop out of Romney’s remaining support in the Granite State as Newt surges there;

· A week later, Newt wins New Hampshire.

· The polls – which today have Newt crushing Mitt in both South Carolina and Florida – will reflect the end of Romney; Romney’s remaining national support will sink like a stone;

· That is when Phase Two of the GOP Race begins:

· Voters and GOP office-holders and officials realize that Newt Gingrich is not the candidate to lead the Republicans in the general election.

· His negatives will grow; to see a lot of Newt is to not like him;

· Republican Congressmen and Senate candidates will be in an absolute state of panic over a November general election with Newt at the top of the ticket.

· Talk will begin of an anti-Newt getting into the race – in March or April – to save the party.

· That is for another column down the line.

· Right now we are witnessing the grass-roots GOP primary voter rising up and rejecting Mitt Romney.

· Newt Gingrich is mis-reading that phenomenon and believes these voters buy him; they don’t really know him - yet;

· He is a vessel for angry, anti-establishment, outsider voters. Nothing more.

· Ironically, these voters are embracing – temporarily – the candidate who encompasses everything they loathe: insider, money-making cronyism, lobbying, rigging the DC system to himself. Newt is the champion of this behavior – and yet these voters are championing him!

· But Newt’s biggest problem – an unrestrained megalomania – will soon overtake him.
· He will wear badly – and by the spring the voters will be crying for someone else.

· So buckle your seatbelts for a wild few weeks to come!

Is Romney on the verge of collapse?

Is Gingrich now un-stoppable?

Where do Cain's remaining voters now go?

Is the Tea Party becoming a negative?

Is the economy turning a corner that will guarantee a second Obama term?

Are we accelerating toward an inevitable Third Candidate in 2012 and can that Independent Third Candidate actually win in November 2012?

All this and much more will be answered this week as Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier analyze the 2012 Presidential race on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL on http://live.foxnews.com/on Monday at 2 PM ET.

This is TV’s only show that features only people who have done politics for a living – no blow-hard, know-it-all, pontificating, tired, opinion-spewing, boring Talking Head so-called journalists – or self-proclaimed “strategists” - here. CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL has no phony arguments; no interrupting and yelling, no party-ordered Talking Points and no “agendas.” Instead, we let the viewers watch what would be a typical Senior Campaign Staff meeting – either in the White House or up on Capitol Hill – from people who have actually been in those meetings.

CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL streaming live at http://live.foxnews.com/ on Monday at 2 PM ET.So, just before 2 PM on Monday, go to http://live.foxnews.com/ and get your computer all set and the volume just right – you can also set your computer to Full-Screen size - and enjoy this unique political show.

If you cannot watch the show live – catch it on demand at http://live.foxnews.com/ until the next morning or head to http://video.foxnews.com/?playlist_id=162726 for clips of the show.
And read other things at www.johnlebout.com