POLITICAL DETERIORATION

Since the health care bill passed the Congress and was signed into law—two weeks ago—the President has simultaneously tried to win back independents (changing his position on off-shore oil drilling) and then lurched back to the Left with his (feel-good for the Left) decision to limit the potential use of nuclear weapons.

But the real story is Obama’s approval rating has dropped five points since the supposed triumph of the health care passage.

The CBS poll shows his approval rating down to 44%—down from 49% right after he signed the health care bill.

And in the generic ballot question: which party will you vote for in this fall’s congressional elections, Republicans have taken a one point lead over the Democrats for the first time in over three years.

Furthermore, the health care bill is bedeviling Democrats back home. In Harry Reid’s Nevada a whopping 65% oppose it. No wonder Harry’s re-elect number is hovering around 40%, a sure-fire sign that ole Harry is headed for a humiliating defeat in November.

GOP candidates in Illinois—going for Obama’s seat—and Pennsylvania are ahead.

The GOP candidate for governor is ahead of Jerry Brown by 3 points.

And Democrats running in the four open House seats in upcoming special elections are all in trouble.

Why all the trouble for the majority party? Why are they—at this moment—in trouble even in normally Democratic states and districts?

And why are the President’s ratings dropping to G.W. Bush levels?

1) Because as April 15th approaches, we are seeing that our taxes—whether they be local, state or federal—are going up at a time we have less money;

2) The jobs situation is still not improving despite some small statistical signs of meager job growth. People know that it is a bleak jobs picture and will be for a long time;

3) Because the President and the Democrats continue to talk about the health care bill—even after it has been passed! Why keep talking about a bill that 55% of Americans still say they want to repeal?

4) Because the President is avoiding the very problem that is hurting him: the economy.

The Democrats are going to be slaughtered this November for one basic reason: the perception is that they have not made the economy better.

Period.

If that perception changes, Democrats can then get away with this other left-wing nonsense.

But until and unless the economy does a major turn-around, the “in” party is “in” the voters’ cross-hairs.

John LeBoutillier will be on “Imus in the Morning” Thursday morning, April 8th, at 6:30 AM Eastern on ABC Radio and FOX Business News.

www.imus.com

IMUS TALKS TO CHRIS WALLACE—AGAIN—ABOUT PUTTING JOHN LEBOUTIILIER ON FOX NEWS SUNDAY:

IMUS: You don’t put anybody on who I recommend that you put on, so I’m not putting on any stiffs who you want me to put on.

WALLACE: Well, who do you want me to put on my show?

IMUS: I forget who I recommended, but I’m sure Matt Taibbi was one of them. I think John Leboutillier was another.

WALLACE: Yes, you did mention John Leboutillier.

IMUS: Yeah, and so you…

WALLACE: We don’t have formers on. We generally have people who are in office.

IMUS: Well, ok, if that’s the attitude you want to have. They guy’s brilliant. You have that dope William Kristol on who’s as close to being a moron as you can possibly be.

WALLACE: Why do you have something against Bill Kristol?

IMUS: He’s a, he’s a jerk. And you, Leboutillier is brilliant. You know, he’s brilliant like Krauthammer’s brilliant.

WALLACE: Krauthammer’s pretty darn smart

THE FIRST 2012 PRIMARY

Long before we on the Right can worry about defeating President Obama in 2012, we have to come up with an electable—and presidential—candidate—and one who, if elected, will run the country according to traditional, conservative economic and foreign policy principles.

And the key to that task is to find a candidate who can unite all the disparate factions and groups on the Right—and also appeal to the all-important independent voters, especially the Tea Partiers who have grown disgusted with the Establishment of both political parties.

In other words, this first 2012 primary is the race to be anointed Mr. Conservative.

This is, in sum, a difficult task.

To illustrate: Yes, Sarah Palin is the champion of many on the Right. In fact, they adore her. And she is exciting and good on TV.

But more people view her negatively—a lot more. She is even more polarizing than Obama!

She can not unite the Right and the independents. Instead, she drives many voters away from what could be a winning message in 2012.

Mitt Romney? Can he be Mr. Conservative?

Can a man who ran for US Senate in Massachusetts by saying, “I don’t want to go back to Ronald Reagan” but who then campaigned at the Reagan Library in a pathetic attempt to become a Reagan disciple, truly become the heir to Reagan?

Can the man who actually implemented ObamaCare and now wants to run against it be seen as a true conservative?

No.

He cannot.

And he will not.

There is something insincere about Romney. He is indeed an “elegant snake oil salesman.”

So who is the new Mr. Conservative?

Well, we do not yet have one.

In fact, we haven’t had one for quite a while. We have had several poseurs for this position: Newt for a while when the 1994 Republican Revolution burst on the scene. He was brilliant during this period; he does come up with some innovative ideas. But his massive ego subsumed the movement which then morphed into the Gingrich Revolution and soon petered out.

Then along came G.W. Bush, campaigning as the Son of Reagan—i.e. cowboy motif, gaudy belt buckles and cowboy boots, a ranch (with no animals, by the way) instead of the Son of Bush. It took people a long time—delayed by 9/11 and Iraq and his hiding behind the courageous troops he was using as political cover—to figure out the Bushes are fraudulent conservatives who pretend to be on the Right but in reality are closer to Rockefeller Big Government Republicans. (Must I remind you of the lie of No New Taxes from Poppy Bush and the lies about massive deficit spending and “nation building” from Junior Bush?)

In 2007-2008 various other poseurs for this position of Mr. Conservative surfaced: Fred Thompson and then Mike Huckabee. But after a few weeks’ exposure they faded into weekend TV shows and little-heard radio commentaries.

By default—and the absence of a unifying Mr. Conservative—John McCain won the 2008 GOP nomination. The Right was un-enthused by McCain. Obama won. It was inevitable after the Bush Years, Katrina, the crashing financial situation and two wars.

But 2012 could be—depending on the jobs situation—the Year of the Conservative.

If it is to be a big year for our side then Mr. Conservative needs to lead the way.

So far he has not yet appeared.

Will he?

Stay tuned.

More to come—soon!

Is the passage of the so-called Health Care Reform really a huge political victory for President Obama and the liberal Democrats? Or is it actually the beginning of their political obituary?

Here is what will answer these questions:

1) Underlying everything is the economy, the so-called recovery and the jobs issue. Simply stated: if the economy improves and there is legitimate private-sector job creation, Obama and the Democrats will improve their current abysmal popularity ratings. And if the economy actually exploded into a high-speed recovery, Obama can then get himself re-elected in 2012. He can be viewed as a successful President as opposed to a failed flop like Jimmy Carter.

2) But—as of now—with the economy stagnant and the perception that we are floundering in an ongoing recession—this health care bill and all the dirty dealing that surrounded it only serves to accentuate the worst side of Obama, Pelosi and Reid.

3) Will the glow from Obama’s victory help the Democrats in November’s mid-term elections? Not much. The anger on the right and in the middle among independents is huge and they plan on punishing Obama and the Democrats this fall. Look for a catastrophic defeat for Democrats in the House and Senate.

4) We may see a slight short-term uptick in Obama’s poll rating later this week after the White House signing ceremony. Plus, he won’t be out every day talking–non-stop–about health care instead of jobs and the economy. This mis-connection hurt him politically. So getting back to the jobs issue–even if his Big Government solutions only hurt job creation–will help his poll ratings, too.

5) The so-called Mainstream Media is so in the tank for Obama that they will try to say that “Obama has his mojo back” and that he is “in the pantheon along with FDR, JFK etc..” This of course is all nonsense and hype. Obama has had a terrible first year – due to his own over-reaching and mis-interpretation of his election. He has lost support – especially from fiscally conservative independents–that he may not ever be able to win back.

6) But his leftist supporters who have felt down and let down over his first year finally have something to feel good about. They are crowing today.

Conclusion: 2010 will be a bad year for Democrats. 2012 is too far away to even begin to contemplate.

Coming soon in this space: the race for the key GOP 2012 primary: who will be the new Mr. Conservative?

PREDICTION: NO HEALTH CARE VOTE SUNDAY

Despite all the Obama-Pelosi-Reid propaganda about the final health care vote coming Sunday afternoon, I believe they do not have the necessary 216 votes locked up. And, if they are not absolutely certain of having those 216 votes, they will not call the vote. Pelosi cannot afford a defeat; she can stomach weeks more of this nonsense. Obama has delayed his trip until June, so perhaps they believe this may indeed drag on a while longer. So do not be surprised if they do not call a vote Sunday after all. (I am writing this at 4:20 PM Saturday afternoon.)

Also, as a life-long Republican, I am aghast that the New York State GOP has invited a Democrat incumbent, Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy, into the Republican gubernatorial race. Rick Lazio–the only so-far announced GOP candidate—has so far run a weak race; and there is little hope he can win in November. But asking a Democrat to come into our party?

What a mistake.

No wonder the New York State Republican Party is basically non-existent.

Asked if he knew John LeBoutillier, the Conservative former Congressman who now writes for Newsmax and appeared one hour ago on this show, Wallace shrugged and said, “I know the name,” which was not the right answer. He should, Imus insisted, have LeBoutillier on Fox News Sunday instead of “the same stiffs” he has every week.

“We have news makers,” said Wallace. “Not news-maxers.”

—Julie Kanfer