Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier - the CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL team - will be on Foxnews.com at 8:45 PM ET tonight to cover the crucial Michigan GOP Primary as the results come in.

So go to http://live.foxnews.com/ and watch - commercial-free - as the Republican race takes a major turn tonight.

When Rupert Murdoch, the Chairman of the Board on News Corp., the parent of Fox News Channel, tweeted his support for Rick Santorum a couple of weeks ago – (yes, Mr. Murdoch is now a Twitter guy) – he wrote of the stakes for Santorum in today’s crucial Michigan primary: “Win Michigan, game over.”

That view has focused the political world on today’s contest in Michigam. Let us look ahead and examine where the GOP race goes after today:

· If Mitt Romney hangs on and wins Michigan, he of course continues on – and so does Santorum – into next week’s Super Tuesday. But even with a win in his home state, Romney has become a much-diminished political figure.

His political tin ear, verbal gaffes, flip-flops and perpetual pandering have damaged him among the crucial 40% of American voters who call themselves Independents. Among these swing voters, Romney has an almost-two-to-one negative rating.

· GOP voters – after 6 years of almost-constant campaigning – have not connected with Romney; clearly that is not going to change.

· He is – simply stated – a weak political candidate.

· But, if he hangs on tonight, he will soldier on with the GOP Establishment (shakily) still in his corner and his financial backers still writing checks to him, even though more and more of them have expressed private doubt about his viability.

· Next week is Super Tuesday. Ohio is the most crucial of the ten states that have either primaries or caucuses next week – and Santorum is ahead there, too. Plus Ron Paul does well in caucuses – and Newt Gingrich will win Georgia and make a showing perhaps in Oklahoma and Tennessee. So Romney may not have a great Tuesday nexy week either.

· But – for now – tonight is the Ball Game.

OK, what if Romney loses tonight?

As Carole King wrote and sang, “I feel the Earth Move.” Will be the prevailing sentiment inside the GOP political world.

· If Mitt Romney cannot win the state he grew up in and where his father, George Romney, was a popular three-term governor, then he will be deemed - even by many of his own supporters and donors and bundlers - as a Political Loser.

· Panic will spread throughout the Republican Establishment.

· Fear that we will not only lose to Obama in November – frankly more and more Republicans have already privately concluded that – but fear that a weak Romney or a disastrous Santorum at the top of the ticket will doom Senate and House candidates, too.

· You will hear that the GOP Establishment is begging a new candidate to jump in the race to “save the party.”

· And there will be more talk of a brokered GOP convention in Tampa to come up with a “new candidate”.

· And, along with this, an Independent Third candidate may emerge to run against both the GOP nominee and President Obama in November.


OK, what will happen today in Michigan?

Well, Romney should have won this primary going away after Santorum’s pathetic debate performance last week. But the Ford Field Fiasco, the “Anne Drives Two Cadillacs” statement, and the NASCAR double-screw-up – pic with car sponsored by Santorum and saying, “Some of my best friends own NASCAR Teams” – have made this race a virtual tie, with Santorum again having late momentum.

Thus, it will be so close – perhaps too close to know the outcome ‘til very late tonight – and we may have a disputed outcome ala Iowa and Maine.

In the end, Romney is the net loser no matter how it ends up.

Look for more surprises in the weeks ahead.

Will there be a surprise in Michigan and Arizona?

Can Mitt Romney be stopped – or is he the certain GOP nominee – despite Republican voters expressing their unhappiness with the current field of GOP candidates?

Can the conservatives coalesce behind Rick Santorun? Or did his poor debate performance in Mesa the other night doom him?

Are we accelerating toward an inevitable Third Candidate in 2012 and can that Independent Third Candidate actually win in November 2012?

All this and much more will be answered this week as Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier analyze the 2012 Presidential race on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL on http://live.foxnews.com/on Monday at 11 AM ET.

This is TV’s only show that features only people who have done politics for a living – no blow-hard, know-it-all, pontificating, tired, opinion-spewing, boring Talking Head so-called journalists – or self-proclaimed “strategists” - here. CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL has no phony arguments; no interrupting and yelling, no party-ordered Talking Points and no “agendas.” Instead, we let the viewers watch what would be a typical Senior Campaign Staff meeting – either in the White House or up on Capitol Hill – from people who have actually been in those meetings.

CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL streaming live at http://live.foxnews.com/ on Monday at 11 AM ET.So, just before 11 AM on Monday, go to http://live.foxnews.com/ and get your computer all set and the volume just right – you can also set your computer to Full-Screen size - and enjoy this unique political show.

If you cannot watch the show live – catch it on demand at http://live.foxnews.com/ until the next morning or head to http://video.foxnews.com/?playlist_id=162726 for clips of the show.

And read other things at www.johnlebout.com

The entire Republican Presidential race is – and has been for a year – a race to stop Mitt Romney and a stolid, tired, old, constipated, GOP Establishment from jamming a boring, non-conservative candidate down our collective throats for the second consecutive presidential race.

Back in 2007-2008 no one inside the GOP liked John McCain – and yet we were saddled with him. He was a lousy political candidate. He was – and still is – a prickly, un-likeable man.

Now – in 2012 – the same GOP Establishment is foisting on us another man that no one likes: Mitt Romney.

A man who has to repeatedly tell us how “severely conservative” he is.

A simple rule: if you have to proclaim your conservatism, then you are probably not a conservative.

Mitt Romney grew up in Michigan in the 1950’s when the Republican Party was the party of moderation. Conservatives were a distinct minority; moderates the majority.

His father was a classic moderate. So, too, was his mother when she ran in 1970 for the US Senate.

In 1968 Mitt’s father, Governor George Romney, ran for president and was a poor candidate on the stump. That is not to say he was a bad person; in fact, he was a good man and a smart man in business. But he had poor political candidate skills.

Mitt Romney is an atrocious presidential candidate. One of the worst candidates the GOP has ever produced.

He has one excellent skill: making and raising money. Period.

That’s it.

He cannot inspire. Or rouse a crowd. Or deliver a moving address. Or lead.

Even his attempts at humor – and singing – fall flat.

The so-called mainstream media keeps telling us he is the inevitable nominee. They tell us he “has the organization and money” to win.

Yet flawed candidates and campaigns with no money or organization like Santorum and Gingrich – and maybe even Ron Paul in Maine when they actually count all the votes - have beaten him repeatedly.

How long does it take the Republican Establishment to realize they have hitched themselves to a total loser?

Romney simply cannot close the deal with voters.

After five years of campaigning and tens of millions of dollars spent, he still basically cannot exceed 25% of the GOP vote nationally.

He never grows in popularity. In fact, the more the voters see of Romney, the less they like him.

So, where do we go from here?

Next up is Michigan, the state where Mitt grew up and where the Romney name is still golden. As of now Santorum is ahead – and is going to spend money and try to damage Mitt there.

Romney will follow his tried-and-true Modus Operandi and carpet bomb Santorum with TV ads in Michigan. It is Romney’s only was of winning anything. He cannot win on issues or on his own record – because his record is closer to Obama’s than to Reagan’s.

This will continue for a while. Newt Gingrich’s support is now steadily deteriorating – with his voters defecting to Santorum. The race will go along into the spring with more and more people finally realizing that Romney is too flawed to defeat Obama.

Does this mean Rick Santorum will be the GOP nominee?

No.

It means that we will remain deadlocked for a while – maybe even all the way to the August GOP Convention in Tampa.

The Republican Party has not – yet – found someone – anyone – to believe in.

Will there be a surprise in New Hampshire?

Can Mitt Romney be stopped – or is he the certain GOP nominee?

Can the conservatives coalesce behind one candidate?

Or is it too late?

Are we accelerating toward an inevitable Third Candidate in 2012 and can that Independent Third Candidate actually win in November 2012?

All this and much more will be answered this week as Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier analyze the 2012 Presidential race on CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL on http://live.foxnews.com/on Monday at 2 PM ET.

This is TV’s only show that features only people who have done politics for a living – no blow-hard, know-it-all, pontificating, tired, opinion-spewing, boring Talking Head so-called journalists – or self-proclaimed “strategists” - here. CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL has no phony arguments; no interrupting and yelling, no party-ordered Talking Points and no “agendas.” Instead, we let the viewers watch what would be a typical Senior Campaign Staff meeting – either in the White House or up on Capitol Hill – from people who have actually been in those meetings.

CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL streaming live at http://live.foxnews.com/ on Monday at 2 PM ET.

All the talking and yapping and attacking is over. The time for caucusing is – finally – here.

Who will win tonight’s Iowa GOP Caucuses?

With real voters casting real votes, who will be the real front-runner?

All this and much more will be answered tonight as Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier analyze the the Iowa Caucuses – live – tonight – on a special edition of CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL on http://live.foxnews.com/ on Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET.

This is TV’s only show that features only people who have done politics for a living – no blow-hard, know-it-all, pontificating, tired, opinion-spewing, boring Talking Head so-called journalists – or self-proclaimed “strategists” - here. CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL has no phony arguments; no interrupting and yelling, no party-ordered Talking Points and no “agendas.” Instead, we let the viewers watch what would be a typical Senior Campaign Staff meeting – either in the White House or up on Capitol Hill – from people who have actually been in those meetings.

CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL streaming live tonight at http://live.foxnews.com/ at 8:30 PM ET.So, just before 8:30 PM tonight, go to http://live.foxnews.com/ and get your computer all set and the volume just right – you can also set your computer to Full-Screen size - and enjoy this unique political show.

And read other things at http://www.johnlebout.com/

Every year at this time I try to look to the year ahead and picture what may happen – especially in the world of politics and world affairs. It is difficult to distinguish between what we want to happen and what we think will happen. I try to do my best to keep my own biases and desires out of these predictions each year. So, here we go:


· Something – politically – cataclysmic is going to happen this year somewhere around the world before the November 6, 2012 presidential and congressional elections. This will be a man-made event – an attack or an assassination or a revelation of a Big Scandal - that will shock us all – and re-jigger the political world.

· 2012 will be the wildest, most un-predictable election year since 1968. 2011 was the craziest year inside the GOP – ever – with five different front-runners who rose and then sank within months (Trump, Bachmann, Perry, Cain & Gingrich) – and all this before even one real vote was cast! If the lead-up to 2012 is this unpredictable and unhappy, how can the election itself not be even crazier?


· It is a virtual lock that Ron Paul will finish either first or second in Tuesday night’s Iowa Caucuses. Why? Because his supporters are the most fervent and devoted – and they will turn out on Tuesday night for sure. Romney? He could finish anywhere from first to third – that is how fluid this race – and his support - is.

· Ron Paul will not run in the general election as a Third Party candidate. Why not? As my CAMPAIGN CONFIDENTIAL colleague, Pat Caddell, said, “Ron Paul would cost the GOP any chance at the presidency and the blowback would destroy any chances his son, up-and-coming GOP Senator Rand Paul, would have inside the Republican Party down the line.” Pat is right. Ron is 76; this is his last rodeo. But the Pauls and their libertarian cause will live to fight another day inside the Republican Party.

· Rick Santorum will be in the top three in Iowa – and will, for a while, inherit much of the Christian Evangelical vote.


· There will be a dynamic Third Candidate in the race against President Obama and the Republican nominee. With 70% of American voters saying they are “alienated” from both parties, there is a gigantic space in this year’s race for a new, serious, exciting candidate – not a has-been and not a self-promoting freak show/Donald Trump type clown candidate. This candidate has not yet been mentioned amid all the speculation over a Third Candidate.


· Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will not be Iran’s President by this time next year.

· There will be another economic downturn in 2012 that will knock Obama’s re-election chances backwards. Unemployment numbers will go back up again – a statistical fact if things on the jobs front seem to be improving and more people re-join the workforce. The nation will gasp if the unemployment number does indeed go back up – and polls will show Obama’s re-election chances again dimming.

· If Mitt Romney is the GOP nominee, Team Obama will savage him in the 16 swing states with eviscerating TV commercials beginning as soon as it appears Romney will be the nominee. The focus will be to go after Romney’s self-proclaimed strength: his business career in the world of private equity and mergers and acquisitions. This will be the mirror image of what the George H.W. Bush campaign did to another former Massachusetts governor, Mike Dukakis, in 1988. In that case, Governor Dukakis was running on his supposed-Massachusetts Miracle and his so-called “competence” as an executive. But when the Bush Campaign was done with him and his record in the Bay State, he had nothing left to campaign on. He was destroyed in November 1988. Team Obama will try to replicate this by running ads featuring laid-off workers who lost their jobs while Romney “enriched” himself. Romney and the GOP better be ready for this.

· Obama will also hit Romney on two issues that have cropped up because of Mitt’s attempt to move to the right to get on the “right” side of Gingrich and Perry: he came out for the Paul Ryan Medicare Plan to get to the right of Newt and he took the extremely hard line on illegal immigration in opposition to Perry and then Newt. Look for Obama to attack Romney among seniors on this Medicare plan – and in Hispanic areas on the illegal immigration issue.

· If Obama wants to play the Class Warfare card, the GOP, if they select Mitt Romney, is nominating the one candidate who plays into that stereotype. With his “I’ll bet you ten thousand dollar” moments and pictures of him with cash coming out of his pockets (from his Bain days), Team Obama will have a field day.

· The so-called Mainstream Media – always in the tank for Obama – will re-double their efforts to re-elect the President. Why? Because to have the first African-American President defeated would be to de-legitimize all that the Left has believed in. So they will help Obama in his scorched-earth strategy – if that is the only way he can get re-elected.

· Let us all hope for a great 2012 for the United States!